1. REDD+ FOR THE GUIANA SHIELD Technical Cooperation Project Session 3 – Creating a Regional Dialogue Platform Marie Calmel, ONF International December 11 th, 2013 2 nd Steering Committee Meeting, Macapá

2. Presentation outline  Introduction  Presentation of the envisioned tools and ways to produce those tools  PhD projects and CIRAD agreement  Production of regional data  Discussion

3. Introduction  Final and main objective of the project  All countries acknowledge the benefit of such dialogue  Current obstacle to it:  Each country has developed or is developing their own tools, methodologies and products  Differences in methodologies make the comparability of data difficult  Sovereignty  Prioritization of national systems improvement  Stakes and importance of regional tools:  Highlight linkages and leakages issues  Improve efficiency at country level  Encourage the Eco-Region conservation

4. Tools to support decision making  Several previous experiences  Guyasim software (CIRAD)  Models of future deforestation (e.g. CI/Imazon/ClarkLabs), Brazil  Underlying assumption – Model are informative  Results  Processes  Challenges:  Data / inputs  Appropriateness

5. General overview Model spatially explicit of future deforestation Regional Scale Long term objective Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale Participative development of the tools Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio- economical impacts Regional GIS Database

6. PhD project 1 PhD 1 Model spatially explicit of future deforestation Regional Scale Long term objective Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale Participative development of the tools Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio- economical impacts Regional GIS Database

7. PhD project 1  Funded PhD under “CIRAD Forêt” supervision (Bruno Hérault) and the “Laboratoire Montpelliérain d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée » (LAMETA – Jean –Michel Salles)  PhD student – Camille Dezecache  Objective:  To develop a spatially explicit model of future deforestation, taking into consideration several development scenario  Participation to the project:  Component 2 :  Development of maps of deforestation risks  Collection of data and preparation of a GIS database of drivers of deforestation (in partnership with ONF Guyane)  Component 3:  Critical review of the available models  Preparation of deforestation risk maps and modeling model  Participation to Working Groups in order to share the model construction process  Part of the scientific platform on modeling future land use and land cover changes

8. Implementation and budget  Implementation through a consultancy contract with CIRAD Forêt (ONF/CIRAD)  Budget provided by the project in order to:  Ensure the good articulation within the project objectives and approach  Ensure participation to Working Groups, events, etc. in order to share experience and advancements  Missions in the countries  Preparation of deliverables scheduled in the framework of the project  Total budget: 55 780€  Draft agreement to be submitted to FFEM non objection [MCa1] À compléter par Bruno Hérault[MCa1]

9. PhD project 2 Model spatially explicit of future deforestation Regional Scale Long term objective Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale Participative development of the tools Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio- economical impacts Regional GIS Database PhD 2

10. PhD project 1  Objective:  Assess the impacts of REDD+, land-use planning and sectoral measures and policies on forest cover changes and socio-economical development  How:  Development of a partial equilibrium model that would focus on most relevant sectors:  Forestry  Agriculture  Mining  Others?  Participative construction of the model  Policies and measures to be tested  Cause-effect chain  Construction of scenarios  Development of a regional dialogue platform  To follow the model development  To dialogue on the results and tools

11. Implementation and budget  Project still to be launched  Total budget: 70k€ from CIFRE co-fundings + functioning costs  PhD project under scientific review  Call for application in the different countries  Likely start: mid 2014 [MCa1] À compléter par Bruno Hérault[MCa1]

12. General overview Model spatially explicit of future deforestation Regional Scale Long term objective Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale Participative development of the tools Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio- economical impacts Regional GIS Database Scientific collaboration platform General consideration of political approprietness of those tools in the REDD+ and Land-Use planning framework Decision- making tools

13. Input Data – A real challenge  Using data that are available in the countries:  Bring national data to the regional floor when they are produced using different methodologies and shows different characteristics (different resolution and level of details, different type of data, different underlying assumptions, etc.)  Rely on data that are still under development (need for country to gain confidence on those data before sharing it)  Some confidentiality and sovereignty consideration  Collection of data  To avoid duplication  Necessity to produce new regional data  Control of the agenda  Avoid intrusion in the national framework and therefore to facilitate dialogue  Probably lesser resolution to enable a global homogeneous tool  Possibilities to combine lower and higher level data when available

14. Production of data  Land-Use and Land-Cover Historical Analysis  4 time points  Resolution and cloud coverage (meeting to be organized between different stakeholders)  Modalities for implementation:  On free imageries  Validation with high resolution data  Subcontract (under development)  Including a review of existing data  Budget: 30k€ (initial budget scheduled for the Forest cover Monitoring Study)  GIS Database on drivers of deforestation  Variables to be tested in the different models  Modalities for implementation:  CIRAD PhD student preparing a review of existing data  ONF-Guyane administrating the Database (online options?)  Creation of additional data if required  Budget: under estimation

15. Discussion

16. marie.calmel@onfinternational.com http://www.onfinternational.org MERCI / THANK YOU / DANK U / OBRIGADA Photo credit: ONF Guyane