1. Non-democratic Challenges to Democracy Hybrid Regimes and Fascist Dictatorships 18 March 2008

2. Hybrid Regimes: What are they? Authoritarianism /Dictatorship Electoral/Liberal Democracy Elections do not exist or are a mere façade (not competitive) The opposition is systematically repressed The media is completely controlled and censored Government operates without meaningful “checks and balances” Elections are competitive The opposition can challenge the government in arenas other than elections The media is free There are meaningful formal “checks and balances” (independent judiciary, legislature, etc) on the executive. Institutionalized “contestation”

3. Elections are competitive The opposition can challenge the government in arenas other than elections The media is free There are meaningful formal “checks and balances” (independent judiciary, legislature, etc) on the executive Competitive authoritarianism/ autocracy (Levitsky and Way) Pseudodemocracy Partly free (Freedom House) Elections are competitive The opposition can challenge the government in arenas other than elections The media is free There are meaningful formal “checks and balances” (independent judiciary, legislature, etc) on the executive. Hybrid regimes: What are they? Authoritarianism /Dictatorship Electoral Democracy Delegative democracy (O’Donnell) Illiberal democracy (Zakaria) Semidemocracy Partly free (Freedom House) Institutionalized “contestation”

4. Hybrid Regimes: The Context “Liberal Hegemony”: Ideologically, democracy is the norm, and adopting democratic procedures the only source of internal and external legitimacy All regimes need some commitment – dependence on coercion or capital is not stable. So all regimes need legitimacy (Weber) Currently Freedom House lists 123 electoral democracies out of 193 independent countries Not all of them, however, are “genuine” democracies

5. Why Hybrid Regimes? Preferences of the ruler –The dictator-in-the-making wants to keep power, and so would prefer No elections No meaningful contestation in other arenas No free media No formal checks on power (independent judiciaries, legislatures, etc.)

6. Why Hybrid Regimes? Option 1: Go all out –Actions Get rid of these institutions/opposition: jail opposition leaders, cancel or massively falsify elections, control the media entirely –Potential costs Massive domestic protests (might lead to overthrow) International condemnation (loss of strategic resources/aid) Successful resistance by other actors (might lead to overthrow or permanent loss of power) –Potential benefits No more elections to worry about!

7. Why Hybrid Regimes? Option 2: Do Nothing Special –Actions Let elections run their course, compete on the merits –Potential costs Might lose the election –Potential benefits International aid/strategic resources in the given context Enhanced domestic legitimacy

8. Why Hybrid Regimes? Option 3: Tilt the Playing Field –Actions Marginalize (but do not ban) independent media Legally prosecute opposition figures, bribe others Decrease the power of independent institutions –Potential costs International condemnation Go too far and it might trigger a domestic backlash Might still lose the election –Potential benefits Medium domestic legitimacy; unlikely to face violent insurrection Sufficient international legitimacy to continue receiving at least some forms of aid/support

9. Hybrid Regimes: The Menu of Manipulation (Schedler)Schedler Reserved positions (not open to contestation) Dividing, marginalizing, or repressing the opposition Marginalizing or repressing opposition messages Informal disenfranchisement of voters Intimidation or bribery of voters Electoral fraud and manipulation of electoral rules Nonrecognition of results

10. Hybrid Regimes: A Balancing Act Hybrid regimes are more common today than in the past (given the ideological hegemony of liberal democracy) Hybrid regimes always have the potential of becoming more fully democratic But they can also become less democratic –Access to funds/legitimacy from big non-democratic powers –Geopolitical position necessitates international hypocrisy –Control of internal resources such as oil makes the ruler too strong relative to the opposition

11. Fascism: An Earlier Challenge to Democracy Context: New democracies of the early 20 th Century in Europe and America The puzzle of Fascism: A mass-based rejection of democracy and representative institutions based on virulent nationalism/racialism

12. The puzzle of fascism Would you vote for a failed artist and drifter with no special talents except for rabble- rousing? Or for a former schoolteacher, minor novelist, currently unemployed, who says that he has no program except to rule the country?

13. What makes fascism possible? Fascism has to be imaginable: cultural preconditions Fascism has to be broadly appealing: emotional preconditions Fascism has to be institutionally possible: institutional preconditions Fascism has to be politically possible: other social and political preconditions

14. Cultural preconditions Dominant ideological preconceptions – especially liberalism - had to be discredited Criticisms had to be articulated and alternative ideas had to be developed

15. Emotional preconceptions Certain fears and anxieties had to become salient –Of communism –Of the disruption of community brought about by capitalist modernization –Of the competition of ethnic “others”

16. Institutional preconditions Mass suffrage has to be widely available Traditional (“conservative”) dictatorship has to fade away Traditional (“conservative”) parties must be willing to engage in mass democracy

17. Political Preconditions A “political space” had to be made available for fascism Representative institutions had to lose legitimacy Socialist Left Communist Left (rejects liberal democracy) Liberal center Conservative right ( doesn’t like liberal democracy) 35% 15%

18. How is “political space” created? Left Right Patronage networks, churches, etc. Unions, worker newspapers, clubs, etc.

19. How is “political space” created? Ties to traditional parties have to be broken: –Rapid “modernization” breaks traditional patronage ties (diminishing the hold of conservative parties) –Unemployment breaks traditional “left” ties (diminishing the hold of socialist parties) –War and hyperinflation destroys ties in both the left and the right –Government by the left takes makes them less attractive as a protest vote (diminishing the hold of socialist parties) The failure of institutions to deal with large problems delegitimates them, creating space for alternative proposals for political order

20. How is “political space” seized? Political entrepreneurs have to “pick up” the newly available voters through specific appeals Socialist Left Communist Left (rejects liberal democracy) Liberal center Conservative right ( doesn’t like liberal democracy) 35% 15% Socialist Left Communist Left (rejects liberal democracy) Liberal center Conservativ e right ( doesn’t like liberal democracy) 15% 10% 35% Fascists (reject liberal democracy) 30%