1. PEACE OPERATIONS Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Criteria LTC (Ret.) John Derick Osman

2. Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Criteria Objectives: u u Examine the development of MOEs for complex humanitarian emergencies and peace operations u u Identify some potential MOEs u u Define interrelationship between MOEs, and end-states

3. Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Primary Use: E Evaluate whether mission is succeeding or failing Secondary Use: u u Establishes planning partnerships u u Establishes unity of effort u u Establish a common approach u u Minimizes confusion & risk u u Provides end-point or trend analysis

4. MOEs in Modern Complex Emergencies u Operations demand unprecedented interagency planning, coordination & cooperation u Events may demand coordinated MOEs u Every agency will have different MOEs and end- state u Contingencies abound that may adjust MOEs

5. Measures of Effectiveness & End-State HOW DO WE START THE PROCESS?

6. Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Examine the possible “end state or country conditions at exit” using seven categories. u Political Resolution u Demilitarization u Basic Needs u Public Security u Governance u Economy u Civil Society

7. End-State Sustainable Security The capacity of a society to solve it’s own problems peacefully without a need for external military presence

8. Measures of Effectiveness & End-State MOEs for the sustainable security point for each of these elements MOEs for the sustainable security point for each of these elements Political Resolution Political Resolution Demilitarization Demilitarization Basic Needs Basic Needs Public Security Public Security Governance Governance Economy Economy Civil Society Civil Society End State

9. MOE & End-State When its done?  Done before the conflict –Approaches for preventive diplomacy –Approaches for Peace making  During a conflict –Define limits of external operations –Work with local and other intervening agencies –Prepare exit strategies  After containment of a conflict –Plan transition strategies –Link political framework with plan to rebuild

10. MOE & End-State Who Evaluates ? u Professional Soldiers –security, indigenous armies u Humanitarians –basic needs, protection –self sustainable recovery u External Police –professionalism, competence, level of training & autonomy u International Judges and Lawyers –local judicial system, standards, training & support requirements u Public Administration Specialists –the civil service, medical services, elections

11. MOE & End-State Some Suggested MOE Examples u u % Target population resettled (refugees) u u % of aid reaching delivery sites u u Response time (delivery of relief to target site) u u # of weapons collected, withdrawn (security) u u Reduction of violent incidents (security) u u # of police trained and operating (justice) u u % Decrease in crude mortality (medical)

12. MOE & End-State Some Suggested MOE Examples u % Decrease in fatality rates (medical) u Rate of return to pre-disaster acceptable conditions – infrastructure conditions – infrastructure u Efficiency and effectiveness of government –sound budget? –Needs assessment?

13. Broad MOE Categories Who does what?

14. Measures of Effectiveness Medical Health Decline in mortality and morbidity Medical support teamsMedical support teams NGOs - (MSF, M du Monde, UN Agencies)NGOs - (MSF, M du Monde, UN Agencies) Government aid agenciesGovernment aid agencies Military - in emergenciesMilitary - in emergencies

15. Measures of Effectiveness  Reduction in levels of violence/threats  Reduction of arms flows, disarmament  Security Military / Security ForcesMilitary / Security Forces Civilian PoliceCivilian Police Special Operations ForcesSpecial Operations Forces

16. Measures of Effectiveness Public Health Infrastructure All Political / Diplomatic appointeesAll Political / Diplomatic appointees Civil AffairsCivil Affairs UN AgenciesUN Agencies NGOs/IOsNGOs/IOs

17. Measures of Effectiveness Public Communication Host Nation Host Nation Civil Affairs/PSYOPS Civil Affairs/PSYOPS NGOs/IOs NGOs/IOs

18. End-States/Exit Strategies

19. Definition of Exit Strategy “..the planned transition to the host nation(s) of all functions performed on its (their) behalf by peace operations forces” Benson and Thrash: Parameters. 1996

20. Exit Strategies in Complex Emergencies No information on how to develop an exit strategy Transition to other forces/agencies not supported by lessons learned There will be many transitions Little or no time to plan exit strategies

21. TRANSITIONS CIVILIAN MILITARY CRISIS STABILIZATION STABILIZATION LIFESAVING LIFESUPPORT ECONOMIC&SOCIAL POLITICAL SUPPORTOPERATIONS (Example only) MILITARYOPERATIONS

22. Developing Exit Strategies in Complex Emergencies Develop coordinated civil-military Develop coordinated civil-military exit strategies exit strategies Transition (military end-state) dependent on Transition (military end-state) dependent on “level of comfort/safety” of civilian agencies “level of comfort/safety” of civilian agencies Identify and seek requirements/confirmation Identify and seek requirements/confirmation to validate end-state to validate end-state

23. Making Exit Strategies Work Visualize operation from start-to-finish Recognize characteristics, responsibilities, limitations of civil-military partners Recognize characteristics, responsibilities, limitations of civil-military partners Use MOEs and critical pathways as Use MOEs and critical pathways as management tools management tools

24. Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Criteria Questions ?