1. CMEMS Mediterranean MFC

2. Announcement on CMEMS Med-MFC V2 Analysis and Forecast Product A RFC has been sent to Mercator in order to fix a bug related to the DAC sign to be applied to the assimilated SLA (due to error in TAPAS data PUM) The RFC has been accepted last week A change in the SLA Assimilation of the product MEDSEA_ANALYSIS_FORECAST_PHYS_006_001_a has been implemented from 15/12/2015. This implies a positive impact to the Users related to a significant increase of the model capability to predict SLA especially during winter time. A change in the SLA Assimilation of the product MEDSEA_ANALYSIS_FORECAST_PHYS_006_001_a has been implemented from 15/12/2015. This implies a positive impact to the Users related to a significant increase of the model capability to predict SLA especially during winter time.

3. Update on specific development for CMEMS Med-MFC V2 Analysis and Forecast Product 1.Data Assimilation: Grid point EOFs ( * ) (checks to be performed) Error R varying with depth and time ( * ) (checks to be performed) Different Observational error for each satellite( * ) (postponed) Use of a new MDT (1993-2012) ( * ) (done) Change in the sign of the DAC to be applied to SLA ( * ) (done) Register of rejected data ( * ): (done) ( * )= as in proposal ( * )= added in V2 DR ( * )= added after V2 DR 2.ECMWF precipitations ( * ): (done) 3.New ECMWF LSM ( * ): (postponed)

4. Run for CMEMS Med-MFC V2: Analysis and Forecast COP V2 Start date: 1 December 2012 Run until: 31 December 2014 -> To be continued until November 2015 Grid point EOFs computed for all the vertical layers. The code prescribes EOFs=0 below 56 th level Error R z-dependent with monthly variability MDT: 7 years MDT for period 1/12/2012 - 25/3/2014 20 years MDT for period 26/3/20014 - ongoing Same observational error for all the satellites assimilated (2cm) SLA properly correct with DAC from 8 July 2013 ongoing Daily ECMWF precipitation (1/8 resolution except for the period 29/03/2014 – 24/04/2014 where only ¼ resolution date are available ) New dataset and variables Register of rejected data

5. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) SLA ExpRMSE (cm) s4e3.8 Cop V23.6 Slight improvement in SLA error Improvements in SLA quality should be achieved by using a 20yrs MDT for this period -> use delayed time SLA Check problems occurring in April 2014 -> Jenny

6. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) SST Increase in SST error -> Check if the relaxation coefficient could be increased (from 40 to 60?)

7. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) Misfits (T and S vs. ARGO/CTD) @ different depths ExpT RMSE ( o C) 8m T RMSE ( o C) 30 m T RMSE ( o C) 150 m T RMSE ( o C) 300 m T RMSE ( o C) 600 m s4e0.400.450.260.200.10 Cop V20.430.480.260.200.11 ExpS RMSE (psu) 8m S RMSE (psu) 30 m S RMSE (psu) 150 m S RMSE (psu) 300 m S RMSE (psu) 600 m s4e0.200.150.090.060.03 Cop V20.190.150.090.050.03 Increase in T error especially at surface layers Slight decrease in S error

8. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) EAN (T and S vs. ARGO) @ different layers ExpT RMSE ( o C) 0-10m T RMSE ( o C) 10-30 m T RMSE ( o C) 30-150 m T RMSE ( o C) 150-300 m T RMSE ( o C) 300-600 m T RMSE ( o C) 600-1000 m s4e 0.370.440.320.220.140.09 Cop V2 0.410.480.330.230.140.09 Increase in T error Slight decrease in S error ExpS RMSE (psu) 0- 10m S RMSE (psu) 10-30 m S RMSE (psu) 30-150 m S RMSE (psu) 150-300 m S RMSE (psu) 300- 600 m TS RMSE (psu) 600- 1000 m s4e 0.190.150.110.070.040.02 Cop V2 0.190.150.120.070.040.02

9. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) T and S 8m Error increases in some periods: Possible erroneous profiles are assimilated -> need to increase QC R changes in time: R structure in March and May differ from other months

10. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) Z-dependent error R March

11. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) Z-dependent error R May

12. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) Z-dependent error R August

13. First results: period 1/12/2012 – 7/7/2013 (pre-TAPAS) Example of possible erroneous profile assimilated -> Need increased QC

14. Results period 1/12/2012 – 31/12/2014 Emanuela, Alessandro -> Diagnostics and Validation Jenny -> Checks on SLA, R profiles Slava -> Diagnostic with SSH movies

15. Results: period 1/12/2012– 31/12/2014 Misfits (T and S vs. ARGO/CTD) @ different depths ExpT RMSE ( o C) 8m T RMSE ( o C) 30 m T RMSE ( o C) 150 m T RMSE ( o C) 300 m T RMSE ( o C) 600 m s4e 0.490.820.280.220.12 Cop V2 0.530.830.280.210.12 ExpS RMSE (psu) 8m S RMSE (psu) 30 m S RMSE (psu) 150 m S RMSE (psu) 300 m S RMSE (psu) 600 m s4e 0.210.180.10.060.04 Cop V2 0.200.180.10.050.03 Increase in T error especially at surface layers Slight decrease in S error