1. What Are Policy Makers Doing? SIAS Meeting 12 August 2008 Dan Hamza-Goodacre – Adapting to Climate Change Programme, DEFRA

2. Aims Share the following information about the Government’s work on adapting to climate change to inform the APCC working party: Understanding of the risks The potential impacts/costs What the Government is doing Discussion points

3. 3 Aims Understanding of the risks The potential impacts/costs What the Government is doing Discussion points

5. 5 Anticipated Increase in UK Summer Temperatures: By the 2040s, 2003 will be “normal” observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2003 2040s 2060s Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C Hadley Centre

6. Significantly increased flood risk England/Wales 2004 - 2080

7. 7 A global perspective – the less mitigation the more adaptation will be required 1°C2°C5°C4°C3°C Sea level rise threatens major cities Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Food Water Ecosystems Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C Falling yields in many developed regions Rising number of species face extinction Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions The risk of serious irreversible impacts increases strongly as temperatures increase Stern Review (2006)

8. 8 Aims Understanding of the risks The potential impacts/costs What the Government is doing Discussion points

9. 9 Domestic Impacts Health and Welfare: c40,000 premature deaths across Europe and 2,000 in UK in 2003 heatwave NHS: Extreme heat leads to extra burdens on NHS – in Hampshire alone they saw 2,000 extra hospital days in summer 2003 Transport: In 2003, heat caused 165,000 delay minutes (Summer 2004 - 30,000) on the railways Emergency Services: Between 1986 and 1993 there were on average 37,371 grassland and heathland blazes a year in Britain. But in the 11 years from 1994 to 2005 the average rose to 60,332 a year. 2007 floods led to over £3billion in insurance claims Changes in biodiversity (loss of common scoter duck, gain wall lizard)

10. 10 Potentially significant impact on economy and infrastructure… Melting roads/road safety Increased storm activity/extreme weather events Increased rainfall/ flooding Urban heat island effect/overheating Increased Rainfall/Flooding Infrastructural damage / disruption

11. 11 International Impacts Projected impacts around the world: By the end of this century global average temperatures could rise by between 1.7 and 4°C (compared with current temperatures) By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to an increase in water stress due to climate change. Approximately 20-30% of species are likely to at increased risk of extinction if global average temperature exceeds 1.5-2degC Brazil's soya exports could slump by more than a quarter over the next 12 years as the result of climate change. (FT 11 August 2008). Each year hundreds of millions more people will be subject to coastal flooding due to climate change induced sea-level rise.

12. Costs of Climate Change Example: A Foresight study (2004), estimated rise in annual flooding damage from £1.4bn now to as much as £27bn by 2080 if action is not taken. But with effective flood risk measures we could reduce these risks down to around £2 billion pa.

13. 13 Aims Understanding of the risks The potential impacts/costs What the Government is doing Discussion points

14. 14 Responding to climate change Three principle strategies: Mitigation of GHG emissions Adaptation to unavoidable climatic impacts Contingency planning and emergency response

15. 15 Adaptation - Definitions and Options Adaptation is any adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Extent we need to adapt depends on: 1.How the climate changes (thus depends on global mitigation) 2.Vulnerability 3.Appetite for risk (public, ie regulation, and private) There are different options for adapting, eg protect (install air con in schools), retreat (close schools when too hot), live with (put up with higher temps in school), increase resilience (build new schools with better ventilation)

16. 16 The role of Government Much adaptation will be autonomous – it’s weather! Correct market failures:  remove barriers to action (lack of info)  create incentives (water pricing, building regulations)  deliver public good adaptation (flood defence, heat wave plans)  Leading by example (manage estate & use £ to effect change) Value based interventions (Katrina, coastal Defence in the UK )

17. Putting in place a framework for action: 1 The Climate Change Bill will create a new legislative framework for the UK’s adaptation programme: 1.A statutory UK risk assessment by 2011 (plus CBA) 2.A statutory UK programme to respond to the risks (2012). 3.A power to require any public authority or statutory undertaker to produce a risk assessment and action plan (and duty on HMG to produce a strategy for use of the power) (2009). To be accompanied by statutory guidance. 4.Adaptation advice and scrutiny from the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the independent Committee for Climate Change.

18. Putting in place a framework for action: 2 The Adapting to Climate Change Website provides a framework which brings together the work of HMG on adaptation, as well as serving as a ‘hub’ of other information and advice on impacts and adaptation. www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Cross-Whitehall Adapting to Climate Change Programme established. Government Departments have set out priorities and established Ministerial leads.

19. Examples of Government Activity i.Defra continues to fund the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP08) – due to release new probabilistic scenarios for likely climate change later this year (UKCIP08) ii.Local Authority adaptation targets iii.OFWAT climate change adaptation strategy iv.The Department for Health recently updated Heat Wave Plan. v.The Highways Agency has changed the constituent materials in roads and widened drainage channels vi.The government is augmenting the Green Book (the Bible for policy development and resource allocation across government) to factor climate change risks into decision making. vii.The Department for Transport has engineered a new appraisals methodology for transport projects, which incorporates the risks presented by a changing climate.

20. 20 Need to work right across government Public non-financial assets c£800bn, how much of that is climate resilient? Increased risk of animal diseases such as bluetongue 11% of new homes are built in flood risk areas 5 Million people live in flood risk areas 35,000 extra deaths in Europe and 2,000 in UK in 2003 heatwave Many oil refineries and power stations on coastal land Hampshire saw 2,000 extra hospital days in summer 2003 Some heritage sites at risk, especially coastal More internationa l conflicts over resources? Roads: summer 2003 cost DfT extra £23m in SE ‘Environmenta l refugees’ could reach 150-200m by 2050s Rail delays increased fivefold in 2003 heatwave £6bn capital programme for schools – climate resilient? £3bn cost for 2007 floods Operational effectiveness of MOD equipment impacted by heat Security Health Infrastructure Environment

21. Q&A Will UKCIP08 change what is reasonably foreseeable? Are insurance policies properly pricing in the risks from climate change? How are climate risks being factored into long-term asset management? What role should the Government play? What role can actuaries play?