Political and Economic Change

Political and Economic Change

I. Political Change Methods

Revolutions A fundamental change in the political and social institutions of a society Often accompanied by violence and civil war Usually has grass roots popular support More than just a leadership change Examples Industrial Revolution Bolshevik Revolution Chinese Revolution Iranian Revolution Mexican Revolution US in 1776?

Reforms A significant change to the political or economic system to improve conditions Not radical, absent of revolutionary change

Coup d'état French translation means blow (stroke) to the state
Act of overthrowing the existing government, usually done by the military May or may not lead to a revolution Africa; between 1952 and 2000, 33 countries experienced 85 coups Unsuccessful attempt in Russia against Boris Yeltsin

War Clausewitz- “Politics by other means.” Types Examples
Interstate conflicts Civil War Guerrilla Warfare Examples Nigerian Biafran Civil War Iran-Iraq War

Political Change: Trends and Types

Political Liberalization
Occurs when a nondemocratic system becomes more politically open and less repressive Government expands individual rights and freedoms Usually takes place with a regime change Enhances legitimacy China’s change enhances their legitimacy Soviet’s Gorbachev led to more destabilization

Democratization Transformation process from a non-democracy to a procedural democracy to a substantive democracy May be incomplete democratization Pace varies Samuel Huntington “democratization waves” Is economic liberalization a necessary precursor?

Stages of democratization

1. Breakdown of nondemocracy (authoritarianism)
Democratization from above CCP in China allowed privatization Democratization from below PRI movement in Mexico to open up politics

2. Establishment of democracy
Decision stage Elites develop new institutional framework Country adopts new constitution National referendum to adopt new framework? Russia

3. Consolidation of democracy
Democracy very unlikely to fall apart Would require cataclysmic events to destroy US during the Great Depression and WWII democracy stayed strong

When is democracy consolidated?
Free and fair elections are routine Peaceful transition of power through elections is routine 2 turnover rule Can survive tests of democracy US 2000 presidential election Adherence to rule of law, peaceful Legitimacy Lengthy period of time UK

Democratic breakdown Democracy breaks down, creeping authoritarianism
Juan Linz 3 stages: Crisis Stage A huge event emerges, Russia & Chechnya Breakdown stage Rules change in the system and freedoms erode, since 1992, 50 journalists have been murdered for their professional activity in Russia Re-equilibration Acceptance of new less democratic rules, par for the course

II. Economic Change Nationalization
Government takes over existing private companies, state monopolies Oil in Mexico and Iran

Privatization Government owned enterprises are sold to the public
Can increase corruption Russia 1990s UK & Thatcherism in the 1980’s

Economic Liberalization
Policies to move the country towards free market capitalism Removal of price restrictions Privatization of most industries Encouragement of foreign direct investment Reduce regulatory measures, trade barriers, and government spending Mexico and NAFTA

Economic Development Statistics
GDP Gross domestic product GNP just includes citizens GDP per capita GDP divided by population HDI Human development index Infant mortality, literacy rates and other quality of life issues PPP Purchasing Power Parity Takes into account the real cost of living

Gini Index Measures the level of income inequality in the countries around the world in a 0-1 scale. The lower the number, the more equality

MDCs (EDCs)- UK LDCs- Nigeria NICs- Mexico Countries in transition, former communist states- Russia 1st, 2nd, 3rd World countries

Economic Development Strategies
ISI Import substitution industrialization Mexico WWII to early 1980s, Latin America State fosters industrialization, low taxes and food prices Structural Adjustment Stresses integration into the world markets World Bank forces on highly indebted 3rd world countries Privatization Nigeria

Modernization Theory Western model is ideal
Requires education, urbanization, middle class, human capital investments by government Economic development is related cultural changes Fosters democratization China?

Dependency Theory Developed by Latin American scholars
Explains gap between MDCs & LDCs Legacy of colonialism Former colonies are underdeveloped because of the exploitation and direct control of LDCs Country stays economically poor and corrupt politically with authoritarian rule MDCs strategies: Global trade extracts raw materials and wealth Debt encouraged which prevents social spending Multinational Corporations International support of repressive regimes

Globalization Pros Interdependence Removal of trade barriers
Rapid economic growth Spread of information Spread of democracy and human rights Global Village

Cons Erosion of state sovereignty Environmental degradation
Homogenization of the world, Americanization Increased pressure of global markets Rising inequality, erosion of the middle class? Can lead to violence, civil war, state disintegration, fragmentation? Opposites?

Whip Around

Part Five: Political & Economic Change
“A confidence problem exists on the part of the people of the region who desire democratic rule in principle, but remain suspicious of both the fashion with which democratization is presented and the purposes of the democratic world.” -- Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Prime Minister of Turkey) Part Five: Political & Economic Change

Political and Economic Change
Occur together and often influence one another Types of Change Reform Does not advocate overthrowing basic institutions Revolution Either a major revision or overthrowing basic institutions Usually has major impact in more than one area Coup d'état Replace leadership with new leaders Use of force, often by the military Political and Economic Change: If one occurs without the other, tensions are created that have serious consequences. Ex: rapid economic changes in China have strongly pressured the govt to institute political changes. So far they have resisted those changes. Reform: Want to change some of the methods that political and economic leaders use to reach goals that society generally accepts Ex – may want to change business practices in order to preserve real competition in a capitalist country, or may want govt to become more proactive in preserving natural environment Revolution: Ex: Industrial Rev changed economies of Europe (feudalism to capitalism) but eventually changed political systems, social classes, etc Ex: Fr/Amer Rev were directed at changing political systems, but also changed economies and societal practices Coup d’etats: Literally “blows to the state” Most limited of the 3 types of change Typically occur in countries where govt institutions are weak and leaders have taken control by force New leaders are always vulnerable to being overthrown by another coup

Attitudes Toward Change
Radicalism Rapid, dramatic changes Replace current system with something better Liberalism Gradual change instead of revolution Conservatism Less supportive of change Reactionaries Protect against change Want to turn the clock back to an earlier era Similar to radicals, would be willing to use force “When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. “ Martin Luther King, Jr. Radicalism Ex: In 1917 in Russia, the old czarist regime was replaced by communist USSR Radicals are often leaders of revolution Liberalism: Not the same as liberal ideology Supports reform – don’t think political/econ systems are permanently broken, but need to be fixed/improved Conservatism Tend to see change as disruptive Don’t want to undermine legitimacy of state/regime Reactionary: Oppose revolution and reform, but also don’t want status quo Want to reinstate political, social and econ institutions that once existed (ex. KKK wants to restore institutional racism) Like radicals they are more willing to use violence than Liberals/Conservatives

Three Trends of Development
Indicates growing commonalities among nations Democratization Move Towards Market Economies Revival of Ethnic/Cultural Politics Represents fragmentation Review of Democracies: Democracy takes many forms One broad, essential requirement is existence of competitive elections (regular, free and fair) Gray area – Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia Liberal/Substantive Democracies: Competitive elections, civil liberties, rule of law, neutral judiciary, open civil society, civilian control of military Illiberal/Procedural Democracies: Have democratic procedures in place, but have significant restrictions Ex. Have rule of law, but not always followed by those in power Ex. Presidents have disproportionate share of power Ex. Elections lack true competitiveness *Presence of a procedural democracy (illiberal) is a necessary condition for development of a substantive democracy (liberal)

Review of Democratization
The spread of representative governments to more countries and the process of making governments more representative… The transformation process from a nondemocratic regime to a illiberal/procedural democracy to a liberal/substantive democracy What must be present to qualify as a procedural democracy? What must be present to qualify as a substantive democracy? Review of Democracies: Democracy takes many forms One broad, essential requirement is existence of competitive elections (regular, free and fair) Gray area – Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia Liberal/Substantive Democracies: Competitive elections, civil liberties, rule of law, neutral judiciary, open civil society, civilian control of military Illiberal/Procedural Democracies: Have democratic procedures in place, but have significant restrictions Ex. Have rule of law, but not always followed by those in power Ex. Presidents have disproportionate share of power Ex. Elections lack true competitiveness *Presence of a procedural democracy (illiberal) is a necessary condition for development of a substantive democracy (liberal)

Review of Democratization
Discussion Question: TRUE or FALSE (be prepared to defend your answer): The presence of an illiberal/procedural is a necessary condition for development of a liberal/substantive democracy True! Presence of a procedural democracy (illiberal) is a necessary condition but not sufficient for development of a substantive democracy (liberal)

Three Trends of Development - #1 Democratization
Huntington’s 3 Waves of Democratization 1st wave – developed gradually over time 2nd wave – occurred after Allied victory in WWII 3rd wave – characterized by defeat of totalitarian rulers in S. Amer, Eastern Eur and parts of Africa Samuel Huntington, political scientist Huntington’s 3 Waves: 2nd wave continued until 1960s –characterized by decolonization around the globe 3rd wave began during 70’s - now

Three Trends of Development - #1 Democratization
Reasons for Democratization Loss of legitimacy by authoritarian regimes Expansion of middle class New emphasis on human rights “Snowball Effect” Starts with political liberalization Democratic consolidation A stable political system is supported by all parts of society Reasons for Democratization Loss of legitimacy by both right and left wing authoritarian regimes Expansion of middle class in developing countries New emphasis on human rights by U.S. and European Union Snowball Effect – when one country in a region becomes democratic, it influences others to do so Ex. Poland’s influence on other nations of eastern Europe in 1980’s, also Arab Spring Huntington believes democracy may be declared when a country has had a least two successive peaceful turnovers of power. Democratic Consolidation An authoritarian regime may transition to a democracy as a result of a “trigger event,” such as an economic crisis or military defeat Political discontent is generally fueled if the crisis is preceded by a period of relative improvement in standard of living – called “revolution of rising expectations.” Democratization begins when these conditions are accompanied by a willingness on part of ruling elite to accept power-sharing arrangements and readiness of ppl to participate in democratic process Political Liberalization Eventually leads other states to recognize it as a liberal democracy

Three Trends of Development - #2 Economic Liberalism and Market Economies
Ideology of liberalism from 19th century Europe Bourgeoisie – middle class professionals/businessmen More political & economic freedoms Right to own property, freedom of speech, representation, free trade Radicals (such as Karl Marx) advocated more equality Command Economy Government owned industrial enterprises & sales outlets Economy managed by central government planning 5-year plans very common Ideology of Liberalism from 19th century Europe Bourgeoisie wanted their views to be represented in government and their economic goals to be unhampered by govt interference These values clashed with radicals who emphasized equality more than liberty Command Economies: Central planning supported economic growth by in many cases, esp in Soviet Union, by 1980s most communist countries found themselves in deep economic trouble.

Discussion Question: What was a major problem for 20th century communist countries with command economies? A major problem was that economic growth of major industries had not translated into higher living standards for citizens

Discussion Question: What was a major problem for 20th century communist countries with command economies? A major problem was that economic growth of major industries had not translated into higher living standards for citizens A major problem was that economic growth of major industries had not translated into higher living standards for citizens

Trend toward market economies based on private ownership of property and little interference from govt regulation Mixed economy – some government involvement Pure Market economy – no government involvement Economic Liberalization: Process of limiting the power of the state over private property and market forces Privatization: Transfer of state-owned property to private ownership Economic Liberalization: Less gov’t involvement in economy

Command vs. Mixed vs. Market Economies
More Centralization Less Centralization Right to own property is greatly restricted All industry is owned by the govt Competition and profit are prohibited Elements of command and market economies are present/mixed Right to own property is accepted/guaranteed Most industry is owned by private individuals. Competition and profit are not controlled by the govt

Command vs. Mixed vs. Market Economies
More Centralization Less Centralization COMMAND ECONOMY MIXED ECONOMY MARKET ECONOMY Right to own property is greatly restricted All industry is owned by the govt Competition and profit are prohibited Elements of command and market economies are present/mixed Right to own property is accepted/guaranteed Most industry is owned by private individuals. Competition and profit are not controlled by the govt

Three Trends of Development – #2: Economic Liberalism and Market Economies
Discussion Question: Is there a correlation between democratization and marketization?

Three Trends of Development – #2: Economic Liberalism and Market Economies
Discussion Question: Is there a correlation between democratization and marketization? Mexico has moved steadily toward a market economy since 1980’s and democratization has appeared to follow China has been moving toward capitalism since late 1970’s without any clear sign of democratization

Three Trends of Development #3 Revival of Ethnic or Cultural Politics
Fragmentation vs. nationalism Politicization of Religion Esp. in Middle East Tends to emphasize difference among nations Fragmentation – divisions based on ethnic or cultural identity Nationalism – identities based on nationhood – had been declining in favor of increasing globalization Politicization of Religion – 21st century Samuel Huntingon argued that our most important and dangerous future conflicts will be based on clashes of civilizations: The West Orthodox world (Russia) Islamic Countries Latin American Africa The Hindu world The Confucian world The Buddhist world Japan

Part Two: Sovereignty, Authority & Power (continued) - Democratization
“Sovereignty is not given, it is taken.” -- Kemal Ataturk (Turkish soldier) “I have as much authority as the Pope, I just don't have as many people who believe it.” -- George Carlin (comedian)

Fostering Democracy, Human Rights, and Civil Liberties
Democratization is the second major force transforming contemporary political systems. Includes the enhancement of human rights and the expansion of freedom.

Fostering Democracy, Human Rights, and Civil Liberties
The most important general distinction in classifying political systems: Democratic systems versus authoritarian systems Authoritarian: lack one or several of the defining features of democracy Oligarchy Totalitarian Waves of Democratization First: during the first half of the 20th century: Western states Second: 1943 to 1960s: newly independent states and defeated authoritarian powers Third: 1974 involving Southern Europe, East Asia, Latin America, and a number of African states. Result: democracy more of a common goal of the global community

Types of Regimes - Democracy
What is Democracy? The word democracy means many different things to many different people. For many, “democratic” means good things and “nondemocratic” means bad. Basic Definition: political power exercised either directly or indirectly through participation, competition, and liberty. BUT even political theorists can’t agree on exact definition…more of a spectrum.

Types of Regimes - Democracy
Various Textbook Definitions: (Almond) - a political system in which citizens enjoy a number of basic civil and political rights, and in which their most important political leaders are elected in free and fair elections and accountable under a rule of law. (Barrington) A regime type that involves the selection of government officials through free and fair elections, a balance between the principle of majority rule and the protection of minority interests, and constitutional limitations on government actions. There is no guarantee that democracies will grant human rights and civil liberties to all people. Democracies are supposed to find a balance between respecting the will of the majority and protecting the rights of the minority.

Types of Regimes – Democracy (Liberal vs Illiberal)
Liberal (substantive) Democracies typically include: Competitive Elections Civil liberties Rule of law Neutrality of the judiciary Open civil society Civilian control of the military Illiberal or Procedural Democracies Appear like other established democracies (elections) but do not have many of the features listed above A liberal democracy is the term used by many political scientists to imply a system that promotes participation, competition, and liberty. Competitive elections: regular, free, and fair These types of democracies are rooted in the idea of liberalism, with an emphasis in individual rights and freedom. Participation is central to a liberal democracy. The most basic way to participate is through voting and elections. Through these, the public is given the opportunity to have control over public officials and their policies. In a liberal democracy, suffrage (the right to vote) must be available to all adult citizens with few restrictions. Rule of Law "For the United Nations, the rule of law refers to a principle of governance in which all persons, institutions and entities, public and private, including the State itself, are accountable to laws that are publicly promulgated, equally enforced and independently adjudicated, and which are consistent with international human rights norms and standards. It requires, as well, measures to ensure adherence to the principles of supremacy of law, equality before the law, accountability to the law, fairness in the application of the law, separation of powers, participation in decision-making, legal certainty, avoidance of arbitrariness and procedural and legal transparency." Illiberal Democracy: a governing system in which, although elections take place, citizens are cut off from knowledge about the activities of those who exercise real power because of the lack of civil liberties. It is not an 'open society'.

Types of Regimes - Authoritarian
Authoritarianism is a political regime where a small group of individuals exercises power over the state without being constitutionally responsible to the public. Examples? Examples? Single dictator, hereditary monarch, small group of aristocrats, or single political party

Types of Regimes: Authoritarian
Authoritarian Characteristics: Elites who hold political power make decisions Some based on Communism Some based on Corporatism Gov’t officials interact with people/groups outside gov’t before they set policy Patron-Client Systems – Favors and services to their supporters Economy is tightly controlled by the political elite Citizens have little to no input on selection of leaders Restriction of civil liberties very common Communist party controls gov’t, economy, social life

Totalitarian Regimes Much more negative connotation than authoritarian
Totalitarianism is a highly centralized regime that possesses some form of strong ideology that seeks to transform and absorb aspects of the state, society, and the economy. Much more negative connotation than authoritarian Very repressive Use violence/terror Examples? Examples: Hitler's Nazi's rule Germany, Stalin's Soviet Russia, and Mussolini's Italy, are all cases of totalitarian governments. Modern day example - North Korea

Military Regimes Military rule Nondemocratic
Formerly prevalent in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia Usually begins with a coup d’etat Examples? Military Rule Increasingly, more common in states that are struggling with legitimacy and stability and in those where there is a high level of public unrest or violence The military sees itself as the only organized force able to ensure stability Coup D’etat Coup may or may not have widespread support among the people Once they take control, leaders often restrict civil rights and keep political parties from forming Usually lack a specific ideology or source of authority

Theocracy Theocracy: a political system in which religious leaders control political decisions and religious law provides the basis for policy decisions. Examples?

Part Three: Political Structures/Institutions
“Our political institutions work remarkably well. They are designed to clang against each other. The noise is democracy at work.” -- Michael Novak (American philosopher) Part Three: Political Structures/Institutions

Levels of Government Supranational Organizations – organizations in which nations are not totally sovereign actors International or regional Trend towards states pooling their sovereignty to gain political, economic or social clout Examples? Growing because of globalization Examples? NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) European Union NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) United Nations Globalization: Integration of social environmental, economic, cultural activities of nations resulting from increased international contacts

Levels of Government Unitary System Federal System Confederal
Concentrates all policymaking powers in one geographic place Central government is responsible for most policies Most countries have unitary Federal System Power divided between the central government & sub-units Regional bodies have significant powers (taxation, lawmaking, keeping order) Confederal Power spread among many sub-units (states for example) Weak central government EU Unitary Countries – 172 Federal Countries: 21 countries 11% of countries, 38% of people, 49% of land AP 6: Unitary: GB (although devolving power to regional), China, Iran Federal: Russia, Mexico, Nigeria Confederal: European Union

Unitary States

Federal States

Confederate States Historical examples: Modern examples (arguable):
US before Constitution was ratified (originally governed by the Articles of Confederation) Confederate States of America (American South during Civil War) Serbia & Montenegro (2003 – 2006) Modern examples (arguable): Iroquois Confederacy (consists of six Native American groups) Canada Belgium EU

Levels of Government Advantages of Federal System:
Makes it easier to govern a very large country (physically largest countries tend to have fed arrangements – not China though) Better accommodates regional differences Helps guard against concentration of political power Disadvantages: Lack of uniformity in policy (ex: voting registration requirements, education requirements) If territorial lines of subunits correspond to deep social divisions, federalism reinforces those divisions Advantage of Unitary: Are in a better position to redistribute resources from richer regions to poorer regions (thus creating more equality)

Devolution Sometimes, leaders of unitary systems voluntarily choose to decentralize power Called devolution – transfer of power from a central govt to lower/regional govt Why would they do this? Devolution is a reaction to centrifugal forces – those that divide and destabilize the country. Leaders attempt to keep the country unified by devolving power to certain regions.

Three Causes of Devolution
Ethnic Forces Identity based on language, religion, customs Ethnonationalism See themselves as a distinct nation with a right to autonomy Example? Economic Forces Regional inequalities in income or standard of living Spatial Forces Usually occur on the margins/borders of the state Esp if water/mountains separate from central power and neighbor nations support separation Ethnic: Britain has devolved power to Scottish and Welsh parliaments Spatial: Puerto Rico is island close to other independent islands

Political Institutions
Structures of the political system Carry out the work of governing Vary by country Common structures that exist in most countries are legislatures, executives, judicial systems, bureaucracies, and armies Just because you see the same type of institution in two different countries, don’t assume they serve the same functions

Example - Legislatures Vary in Importance
U.S. Congress Extremely active role in forming public policy. House of Commons in Britain Public policy is usually initiated by the cabinet members and this house is usually a deliberating body that formally enacts and amends legislation. National People’s Congress (China) Essentially, a tool of party leaders. They meet and listen to statements by party leaders and “rubberstamp” decisions made by someone else.

Executive Office Carries out the laws & policies of the state
Head of State Symbolizes and represents the people May or may not have policymaking power Head of Government In charge of actually running the government The Chief Executive Most important person in policymaking Varies by government The Cabinet Most important decision making body in parliamentary systems

Parliamentary vs. Presidential Systems
Parliamentary Systems Citizens vote for legislative reps, which pick leader of executive branch from majority party Head of State = mostly symbolic figurehead Head of Gov’t = day to day Fusion of powers between executive & legislative branches Cabinet members = leaders of majority party in Parliament Chief executive usually does not have veto power Irregular intervals between elections and votes of confidence Parliamentary: AP 6: GB Head of Gov’t usually called prime minister (GB), also called premier (China) or chancellor (Germany) MP’s have stipulated term in office, but it is maximum amt of time before new elections must be held. Prior to that, PM could be removed or could call early parliamentary elections. Votes of Confidence/No Confidence: If sitting gov’t fails to get support for a bill, govt is forced to resign and new elections may be held

Citizens vote for legislative reps and executive branch leaders President – both Head of State & Head of Gov’t Separation of powers/System of checks and balances President picks cabinet members President can veto Fixed Terms Semi-Presidential Systems Prime Minister and President Coexist Presidential: Mexico, Nigeria, Iran (+Supreme Leader) Semi Pres: Russia, China (non-democratic)

Advantages: efficiency in passing legislation, clearer accountability to voters Disadvantages: instability, hasty decision-making Presidential: Adv: checks power of legislature; since directly elected, more of a national mandate Disadv: difficulty removing unpopular president until next election, gridlock!, creeping authoritarianism Semi Pres: Adv: shields pres from criticism (can blame on PM), can remove unpopular PM and maintain stability from pres. fixed term, additional checks and balances Disadv: confusion about accountability, confusing and inefficient legislation

Legislatures Branch that makes laws Bicameral Unicameral Two houses
Advantages/Disadvantages? Unicameral One house Today, more than 80% of the countries belonging to UN have legislatures, suggesting that a govt that includes a representative popular component increases its legitimacy Bicameral: more practical with federalism, check and balance, BUT gridlock Unicameral: no gridlock, BUT no check on power

Judiciaries Vary significantly from country to country
Courts in authoritarian systems generally have little/no independence; decisions controlled by chief exec. Constitutional Courts Highest judicial body, rules on constitutionality of laws Judicial review Power of the judiciary to review laws and executive actions for their constitutionality The judiciary is still a relatively weak branch in most of the AP6, but takes different forms in each.

Bureaucracies Agencies that implement government policy In democracies
Discretionary power Continuity over time In authoritarian regimes Head of government exercises control Patronage system Weber: a well-organized complex machine that is a “rational” way for a modern society to organize its business. Discretionary power: power given to bureaucrats to make small decisions in implementing leg/ex decisions. Patronage system: political supporters receive jobs in return for getting leader elected.

Common Characteristics of Bureaucracies
Non-elected positions Impersonal, efficient structures Formal qualifications for jobs Hierarchical organization Red tape/inefficiency Bureaucrats are appointed, usually salaried and are not elected by public. Impersonal bc they are goal oriented, have little concern for personal feelings. Formal qual. – Authoritarian (must at least have education/experience; Dem – have institutionalized as prerequisites form appt. Everyone has a boss, except for the guy at the top. As grow in size and complexity efficiency breaks down.

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