1. Introduction & Overview Max Cameron Poli 332 UBC April 8, 2015

2. Stylized Facts AnarchyOligarchyPopulismAuthoritarian rule Pact Re-democratization Agro-export economy ISI & Incorporation NeoliberalismLeft turns 19 th C to 1930 1930-1960 1960-1980 Exhaustion of ISI 1980-2000 2000- Re-founding Breakdown

3. Modal Patterns I & II Long period of anarchy Caudillo oligarchy Radical populism Highly repressive authoritarianism Democracy of low intensity citizenship Agro-ex economyISI & IncNeoliberalismLeft turns 19 th C to 19301930-1960 1960-1980 Exhaustion of ISI 1980-2000 2000- Short period of anarchy Constitutional oligarchy Moderate populism Less repressive authoritarianism Citizens’ democracy Pattern I Pattern II Pact Breakdown

4. Structural Conditions Colonial legacies (proximity to core) Indigenous peoples (tranculturation) Type of agriculture (labour repressive or ranching) Extractivism (abundance or scarcity of natural resources) Patterns of foreign influence and intervention

5. Process Anarchy (long or short) Oligarchy (repressive or constitutional) Populism (radical or moderate) Level of threat perception and repression (high or low) Neoliberalism (vigorous or mild) and redemocratization

6. Cases How do the following cases fit the stylized facts about Latin America? Argentina Venezuela Bolivia Mexico Colombia Chile Guatemala Costa Rica Nicaragua Brazil – See Country Scores: Structure & Process

7. Questions? How did post-independence anarchy impact subsequent political development? What kind of oligarchies were most hostile to democratic reform? How did the type of populist mobilization affect military rule? Is revolution a viable alternative political model? Were pacts lasting solutions or merely the deferral of deeper problems? What is the effect of levels of repression on democracy? What countries were most likely to make left turns? Is Latin America undergoing a “second incorporation”?