1. Budget Outlook Glen Crawford P5 Meeting Sep 24 2007

2. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P52 DOE FY2008 Budget + Outyears FY2008 brief review Outyears Inputs for P5 Revised DOE out-year budget scenarios Revised facility ops out-year projections Revised new project profiles (actual+ my guesses)

3. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P53 FY2008: Status  HEP FY 2008 Request is 4% above FY 2007 Appropriation ($782M vs $751M) House mark at President’s Request Senate mark at President’s Request +7M Both have interesting language on JDEM  Expect Continuing Resolution…for how long?  Out-year projections ambiguous (more on this later)

4. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P54 HEP Long-term Trend

5. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P55 HEP program in FY 2008 Overall HEP priorities in FY 2008: Tevatron and B-factory supported to run Last year of B-factory Ops LHC support (Ops and Computing) up 9% as data taking begins Core research program at the universities (+3%) and laboratories (+2%) maintained New initiatives for the future of HEP (see next slide)

6. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P56 Initiatives in FY08 Initiatives for the future of HEP: ILC R&D ($42M  $60M) SCRF infrastructure development continues More new neutrino experiments Main Injector Neutrino Exp’t v-A (MINERvA) Tokai-to-Kamioka near detector (T2K) Stage III Dark Energy experiment (DES) Investment in long-term accelerator R&D increased +$5M

7. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P57 HEP Trends FY2008 Growth continues in R&D and new initiatives Addresses highest priority future facility (ILC) as well as long-term R&D (accelerator science) Also targeted at high-impact physics areas in the nearer term that have relatively well-defined “roadmaps”: Neutrinos Dark Energy The challenge is that HEP budgets only growing at approximately cost-of-living…hard to grow new efforts

8. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P58 Revised Input for P5 Advice inconsistent with likely budget scenarios does not help But boundary conditions have changed, particularly ILC We would also like to know priorities independent of budget Out-year overall budget envelope has changed since last time Was: Growing at few to several % per year Now: ?? Facilities Operations envelopes : Now have better idea of B-factory ramp-down trajectory (at least 1 st phase). FY2010 Tevatron running? Project profiles Revised profiles: actual plans for actual projects; my guesses for others. Did not iterate with NSF. New proposals beginning to surface

9. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P59 Suggested out-year scenarios $ in MillionsFY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11 HEP Budget out-years, FY07 Pres Req740717775785810890975 Alternative HEP out-years (~FY08 Req)740717751782837895957 Actual740717751782 “Alternative” assumes 7% annual increase (a la ACI), see following slide

10. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P510 Outyear HEP Profile DOE HEP FY2007 out-year profile is a component of an Office of Science proposal developed with FY2007 Pres. Req. and sent to Congress March 2006 Grows 1-3% (9-10%) per yr in 2008-9 (2010-11) Actual bottoms-up integration of projects FY2008 “profile” is nominal 7% per yr pro rata Compromise forced by lack of agreement between OMB and Congress on outyear planning Mechanical increase of each SC program by fixed rate Because it is based on FY08 Req., integral funding is less than in comparable FY07 exercise.

11. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P511 Facilities Ramp-down Profiles These are our rough estimates We concur with FNAL estimates of ~$25M (M&S only) incremental to run Collider for one year. Assume: LCLS covers most of SLAC linac ops (2008+). HEP Ops staff at SLAC transition to other activities. FNAL operations for NuMI will continue thru NOvA (2018?) Est. annual savings in $M Year 1Year 2Year 3 Tevatron302010 $215M$185M$165M$155M B-factory35 5 $90M$55M$20M$15M

12. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P512 Project Profiles : Caveats  All numbers are rounded, “planning level”, per experiment (may want >1)  Start and end dates flexible; does not include operations  Unless otherwise noted these are NOT actual project profiles  All $ in Millions and could include contributions from both US funding agencies

13. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P513 Nominal Project Profiles I “Small” projects (Total Project Cost [TPC] <$50M) ProjectYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5 Nominal TPC DES (CD-1)1697225 Daya Bay (CD-1)15911834 Small Dark Matter Expt 810725 g-2 9117--27

14. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P514 Nominal Project Profiles II “Medium” projects ($400M>TPC>$50M): ProjectYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6 TPC ($M) Ground-based DE Telescope 2050605020--200 Large DM Expt 1020402010--100 Double Beta Decay Expt 1020402010--100 NOvA (CD-2) 83665734632260 LHC Detector Upgrades 104080705020270 Next Gen Nu Expt2030503020--150 DUSEL Phase I4070907030--300

15. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P515 Nominal Project Profiles III Large new facilities ($1B > TPC > $400M) Project Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 TPC Space-based Dark Energy Telescope2030709010070400 Megaton-scale Nu Detector409011012011030500 ILC Pre- construction R&D (US share) 30607590105120540 ILC US site studies + industrialization 010307595150390

16. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P516 Nominal Project Profiles IV Ultra-scale new facilities (TPC > $1B) Project Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Out- Year TPC ILC construction (US Share, FY07$) 22543569576078070516755275 Neutrino FactoryTBD Muon ColliderTBD

17. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P517 What’s Not Included “Super” NuMI Upgrade (0.7  1.2MW) Needs revised profile from lab. TPC $50-100M? LHC Accelerator Upgrade Needs definition of what it is (CERN) Needs definition of US scope Project X No cost estimate yet

18. 24 Sep 2007HEP Budget FY08 Update for P518 Summary Budget outlook (FY08+) is uncertain May clear up in 6 months…or not So are boundary conditions ILC is the elephant in the room Does that change priorities? Particularly, if ILC is delayed or stretched out P5 advice will be most useful in Determining optimal balance of existing research program vs. future opportunities What are the budget implications of different physics scenarios?