1. MEXICO ¿Un juego de serpientes y escaleras? Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University

2. Recent Economic and Political Events Economic recovery in the U.S. Government gridlock Political scandals (AMLO and PRI) Mexico – U.S. relationship

3. Vital Signs Is the link alive?

4. Industrial Production Index (January 2000 = 100) Source: Banco de México and FED www.banxico.org.mx; www.federalreserve.gov

5. Vital Signs Is the link alive? GDP growth

6. Real GDP % yearly change Source: INEGI www.inegi.gob.mx

7. Vital Signs Is the link alive? GDP growth Direct foreign investment

8. Foreign Direct Investment Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

9. Debt Market Foreign Investment Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

10. Stock Market Foreign Investment Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

11. Vital Signs Is the link alive? GDP growth Direct foreign investment Super Peso and foreign sector

12. Exchange Rate Pesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

13. Exchange Rate Pesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

14. Inflation Differential vs. Exchange Rate Inflation Exchange Rate 317 219 Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

15. Merchandise Trade Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx Imports Exports

16. Family Remittances Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

17. Family Remittances Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

18. Vital Signs Is the link alive? GDP growth Direct foreign investment Super Peso and foreign sector Federal government balance

19. Government Balance Balance / GDP Source: SHCP www.shcp.gob.mx

20. Vital Signs Is the link alive? GDP growth Direct foreign investment Super Peso and foreign sector Federal government balance War on inflation

21. Inflation Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

22. Vital Signs Is the link alive? GDP growth Direct Foreign Investment Super Peso and Foreign Sector Federal Government Balance War on Inflation

23. Political Environment Presidential elections Felipe CalderónRoberto Madrazo Andrés López Obrador

24. Political Environment Presidential elections Structural reform paralysis

25. Incredible transformation with stability Fox’s legacy: Separation of powers Much work to be done Grave danger: Rule of law A Game of Chutes and Ladders?

27. www.trinity.edu/jgonzal1 jorge.gonzalez@trinity.edu MEXICO ¿Un juego de serpientes y escaleras?