1. Shu Tao and Huizhong Shen College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University Direct Influence of China’s Urbanization on Emissions from Residential, Commercial and Transportation Sectors 17th GEIA Conference Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, Nov. 18-20. 2015

2. Urbanization in china Rapid Urbanization in China CSCIEAS, 2013, The State of Chinese Cities, 2012/2013 0 15 30 45 60 1949 19541959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 20042009 Urbanization Rate, % 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Population, million Rural population Urban population Urbanization rate Urbanization Rate Has Increased from 18% in 1978 to 52% in 2012

3. Hypothesis and assumptions Urbanization causes significant changes in energy use and emissions Hypothesis of This Study Such changes affect human heath and climate consequently Assumptions Industrialization is the drive, rather than consequence of the urbanization Sectors related are residential/commercial, and transportation (passenger’s car, buses) Only direct influences of population migration on emission activities are included CSCIEAS, 2013, The State of Chinese Cities, 2012/2013

4. APPROACH From Urbanization to Health and Climate Effects Urbanization Changes in Population Changes in Energy Use Changes in Emissions Effects on Health Effects on Climate Changes in Exposure Boundary Conditions time span1980 – 2012 – 2030 Pollutants/GHGCO 2, PM 2.5 etc. spatial resolution1/120 degree

5. characterization of population change Geographical Distribution of Population Density in the Past Future Prediction National census, 2000 Nat Bureau Stat, 2015 Urban mask, 2000 Population density, 2000 Nighttime light, 2000 NOAA, 2015 Major cities, 2000 Zhao et al., 2015 Landsat, 2000 Threshold, Shanghai Nighttime light, 2000 NOAA, 2015 Population density, 2030Urban expansion, 2030 Seto et al., 2012 Population projection DESA, UN, 2015

6. Changes in population density Change in Urban Population increased from 191m in 1980 to 670m in 2010 will increase to 999m in 2030 populations in Shanghai20.6m in 2010  26.0m in 2030 populations in Beijing16.0m in 2010  25.0m in 2030 populations in Guangzhou 9.9m in 2010  12.4m in 2030

7. Residential & commercial energy consumption electricity, thermal, oil-gas, solid fuel Residential/commercial Energy Modeling logE cap =  +  {1 - exp[ -  (GDP cap -z cf )  ]} +  P i P i = hdd, price, floor space, etc Transportation logEcap = a log (Income cap ) + b Rate urbanization + c Future Projection

8. gasoline and diesel for motor vehicles EMISSION FACTORS coal, oil, gas, and biomass in residential/commercial sector Emission Sources electricity/thermal from coal, oil, and gas fired power stations SectorTypeSubtype Comments Residential /commercial Coal Raw coal constant EFs proportions change over time Washed coal Briquettes Coke Oil Gasoline Fuel oil Diesel LPG Gas Natural gas Coal gas Biomass Straw (improved) Straw (traditional) Wood (improved) Wood (traditional) Biogas Electricity /thermal Coal fired time trends from literature Oil fired constant Gas fired constant Motor vehicles Oil Gasoline GDP cap based regression Diesel Emission Factors either constant or time-dependent

9. Emissions CO 2 and others Time trends: per capita emission

10. EMISSION DENSITY – CO 2 Frequency distribution Geographical distribution

11. EMISSION DENSITY – PM 2.5 Frequency distribution Geographical distribution

12. MODELING WRF-Chem Atmospheric Chemical Transport Modeling with and without urbanization Exposure Modeling downscaling Relative Contributions exposure induced from emissions from all sectors based on highly sectorially resolved PKU series emission inventories http://inventory.pku.edu.cn/

13. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT FINANCIAL SUPPORT NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATION OF CHINA