2. By: David R Wilson @1davidrwilson

3. NERDS!!!!

5. #NotANerd #OTTHAC16

6. By: David R Wilson @1davidrwilson

7. Current Research (with S. Mills & M. Schuckers) Build Models for predicting if a player plays a certain number of games. Use data from the more recent drafts to improve draft pick charts, like Schuckers has previously done, which uses historical player data.

8. Summary of the Data (1998 to 2013): @1davidrwilson CAEURUSCUSOT 16604163525418831 CDFG 94112421264406 Usual Data issues like: Misspelled names Missing values and inconsistencies Duplicate entries from players who re-enter the draft

9. @1davidrwilson

10. Draft YearGP_Percntg 19980.511628 19990.411765 20000.40273 20010.435986 20020.360825 20030.445205 20040.436426 20050.482609 20060.41784 20070.440758 20080.49763 20090.5

11. @1davidrwilson What happened in 2002? The largest number of Non North Americans were drafted. 123 Non North Americans vs. 109 Canadians drafted IIHF did a study in 2006, based on European players playing in NA between 2000-2006. Of the 621 players, 388 were considered Marginal to below average and 133 never played an NHL game. So, what happened in 2005? The LOCK-OUT (or Sidney Crosby Sweepstakes) Draft. Switched from 9 Rounds to 7. Major shift in the number of Non North Americans drafted. Only 58 Non North Americans drafted out of 230. This trend of less Non North Americans has continued since.

12. @1davidrwilson Other than your beer league buddies, nobody cares if you play 1 NHL Game. The real goal is to get to 160. Why? The NEW and improved NHL pension plan. In 1986, the league switched from a Defined Benefit Pension to a Defined Contribution. After the lockout, the New CBA, did the unthinkable and switched back to a Defined Benefit. “NHL players were eligible to earn a maximum of $50,000 (all currency U.S.) a year in 2012 after playing at least 160 games” Globe and Mail 2013

13. @1davidrwilson Draft Year GP_Percntg 160+ 19980.248062 19990.176471 20000.167235 20010.231834 20020.182131 20030.25 20040.209622 20050.221739 20060.201878 20070.175355 20080.199052 20090.161905

14. @1davidrwilson Prediction on 2010 Draft (Taylor Hall & Tyler Seguin draft year): 23.9% Prediction on 2011 Draft (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins draft year): 19.2% 2015 Draft? Between 15.4% and 23.1%

15. @1davidrwilson Consider Individual Players reaching 160+ Draft Years (1998 to 2011 – NO GOALIES) Variables to consider putting in the model: Career GP  Response Variable = Average GP Career TOI Average TOI Career Points Position Overall Age Interactions

16. @1davidrwilson MethodError Rate Predicted Error Rate GLM (Poisson) 0.0414 0.1899 Neural Net 0.04390.0488 SVM 0.03020.0380

17. @1davidrwilson

19. MethodError Rate Predicted Error Rate GLM (Poisson) 0.0414 0.1899 Neural Net 0.04390.0488 SVM 0.03020.0380 LO (Tree) 0.03800.0439 LO (Adjustment) 0.03360.0439 SVM (Tree) 0.03020.0322

20. @1davidrwilson Sens & Leafs 2012 & 2013 Draftees along with some 2014 Drafted players. ‘Will definitely’ achieve 160+ Games Played: Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Morgan Rielly, Aaron Ekblad Honorable Mentions: Viktor Arvidsson (112, 4th Round) – 18% Likely Leon Draisaitl (3, 1st Round) – 40% Likely David Pastrnak (25, 1st Round) – 61% Likely

21. @1davidrwilson Next Steps in my Research: Finalise the 160+ Games Played Model Develop a new value pick chart (previously created by Schuckers), broken down by position, for establishing the value of a given selection. These values will be analyzed and adjusted based on players first seven years after they’ve been drafted. For example, from the proposed value pick chart if the Senators, wanted to trade their 2015 1 st Round, 18 th Overall draft pick, what should they have received in return that is of equal value? If they’re considering a Defenseman, how does this value compare with a Forward or Centre?

22. @1davidrwilson Thank-you