1. C H I S H O L M Where’s the money in digital news and media And why is it not coming?

2. C H I S H O L M Knowledge Statistical analysis Russia in context

3. C H I S H O L M Russia in context Newspaper circulation performance  Levels of newspaper readership (at 67 copies /1,000 pop,) are relatively low compared with comparable markets.  Market should be seen against a backdrop of low media consumption overall.  Circulations have fallen in the last five years, by an estimated 32%, compared with growth in other BRIC markets. Source: Chisholm analysis of TNS and World Press Trends

4. C H I S H O L M Russia in context Newspaper advertising performance  Newspapers as a proportion of the advertising mix hold a relatively small share, of 10%.  Low advertising revenues are a consequence of:  Low levels of readership  Low advertising revenues per copy Source: Chisholm analysis of Zenith Optimedia, World Press Trends and TNS

5. C H I S H O L M Russia in context Causes of current newspaper performance  High male to female bias is a key cause of circulation decline of 32%.  Males down: 28%.  Females down: 41%.  Significant decline in press freedom ranking may be affecting attitudes to the press, from 41 st to 80 th. Source: Chisholm analysis of TNS and World Press Trends. Freedom House.

6. C H I S H O L M Russia in context Internet usage  Market showing growth in line with current consumption levels  How ever consumption times remain low. Source: Chisholm analysis of ITU data. World Press Trends.

7. C H I S H O L M Statistical trends Digital not yet compensating for loss of analogue  Advertising revenues will continue under pressure, cyclically, structurally, and governmentally.  Circulation volume declines are exacerbated by aggressive pricing policies (which in turn hurt advertising!)  Current digital advertising revenue is neither compensating analogue loss, nor maintaining share of the burgeoning digital adverting market.  Payment for will remain illusive as long user intensity remains low. Source: Price Waterhouse Coopers, World Press Trends

8. C H I S H O L M Statistical trends Our challenge is audience intensity  Over a month, print continues to deliver over 50 times the audience intensity of newspaper digital websites. (Which is why digital revenues are so small.) Comparing print and digital PrintDigital Circulation100- Readers per copy per day2.641.28 Visits per month16.006.12 Pages per visit36.003.46 Total pages per month 1,521 27 Source: Chisholm analysis of ComScore data. (Data for USA, UK and Germany)

9. C H I S H O L M Statistical trends Our challenge is audience intensity Readers per copy Monthly uniques per reader Visits per unique Pages per visit Pages per circulation Philippines8.40.03.14.43.6 India3.00.15.05.13.9 Taiwan3.30.22.66.412.6 Japan1.10.55.24.412.7 Brazil6.10.23.24.214.2 Indonesia10.40.03.78.215.2 Venezuela5.70.14.24.515.5 Malaysia4.90.25.63.724.3 Poland7.10.23.55.025.0 Russia1.51.14.73.427.5 Hong Kong4.80.34.84.731.4 Switzerland3.00.26.66.832.3 Austria3.10.36.36.436.2 Germany3.00.48.35.549.9 Singapore2.40.410.55.051.2 Italy0.72.75.45.861.3 UK2.30.89.24.877.4 France2.90.96.25.281.3 Finland2.10.612.85.088.6 South Korea2.20.89.15.589.7 Sweden2.50.611.75.391.7 Australia4.00.66.76.092.3 Denmark4.10.510.64.494.0 Norway2.20.614.45.2100.3 Ireland3.60.79.94.0100.3 USA3.30.910.34.4131.8 Belgium4.20.59.56.3131.9 Spain4.70.77.55.4141.4 New Zealand3.11.39.53.9147.0 Netherlands3.20.614.56.4186.0 Canada6.30.610.74.5188.4 Chile11.40.75.05.6236.5 Argentina6.31.15.19.0326.4 Source: Chisholm analysis of ComScore data.

10. C H I S H O L M Statistical trends Mobile usage  Russia has the highest level of mobile usage of any major country in the world………..

11. C H I S H O L M Knowledge Industry trends

12. C H I S H O L M Industry trends Increasing influence of mobile  Mobile now overtaking fixed internet as the digital medium of choice:  Faster bandwidths  Improved devices  Tailored content Fixed internet Mobile/wireless Today time Service range Source: CHISHOLM analysis of Forrester.

13. C H I S H O L M Industry trends Mobile is the second evolution DevelopmentDescriptionImplication for traditional media companies ▪WirelessWill be free and ubiquitous, providing any-time, any-place multi-media distribution and interaction. Users will receive and distribute content, and/or advertising. Opportunities in contextual content. ▪LocationalMedia targeted to people and ultra local venues: malls, stadia, neighborhoods. Offering hyper local and targeted content and advertising. ▪Multi-media search Search will extend to pictures, sounds and video. Scan a photograph and receive information about who or where it is. ▪ProfilingAdvances in profiling analysis tools enhance the ability to target and contextualise. Further targeting content or advertising, raising value. ▪TransactivityDigital transactions will grow rapidly, both in volume and scope. Newspapers have the ability to take transactions to smaller retailers and the means to transact and distribute ▪E-readingEnvironmental pressures; Pricing; Younger readers. Offer a means of reducing the newspaper cost base.

14. C H I S H O L M Industry trends Mobile outreaches other media, but requires technology advances…. Sources: CHISHOLM, World Press Trends, ITU, Deloitte. Global population 7 Billion Average issues readers Weekly Readers 3G 2G Ever view

15. C H I S H O L M Industry trends Tablets will be the accelerator 20102011201220132014 eReader users (M)13.033.754.875.689.5 % Change159.262.638.018.4 % of population4.210.817.323.727.7 % of internet users5.814.522.930.935.6 Source: eMarketer.com (Data for USA), Various internet cuttings.  Amazon reports that one in three books available digitally are bought digitally.  Le Monde reports that reading times of eReader applications are as high as those of printed newspapers  American publishers have found that subscription conversion and retention levels for eReaders are higher than for print products.  A German study found that older people read faster on the iPad than in print.

16. C H I S H O L M Industry trends The game changer Tablets offer a major opportunity  Demonstrable usage as a reading device (One in three books);  Print levels of intensity;  Willingness to pay for content;  Appeal to older readers;  Excellent environment for advertising;  Medium justifies investment in alternative presentation and navigation.

17. C H I S H O L M Industry trends Analysis of alternative digital channels InternetMobileTablet Barriers  Lack of user intensity.  Need for improved navigation and serendipity.  Questionable response levels to advertising.  Screen format limits content presentation and advertising effectiveness.  Short-term device compatibility issues.  Awaiting mass market usage. Opportunities  Well established (mature) medium.  Requires a rethink to truly exploit medium’s strengths.  HIgh market penetration, and usage intensity.  Structured for micro payments and digital transactions.  High user acceptance and intensity.  Evolving screen interactivity, leading to great to navigation, and advertising presentation.

18. C H I S H O L M “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” The Death of the Lifecycle Charles Darwin

19. C H I S H O L M The death of the life cycle Is this man past his peak? BirthAge Cycle peak % of life Newspapers160540738795.1 Telephone187513713598.5 Radio189411811294.9 Television1926866676.7 Microsoft1975372464.9 Yahoo199418527.8 Google199814964.3 MySpace20075 Facebook2004 Source: Various. Yahoo Finance.

20. C H I S H O L M The death of the life cycle We’ve always been brand abandoners (UK)  Over last 50 years young readership has fallen by over 60%.  Readership among the over 65’s has fallen by 19%.  People read most when they are youngest and read less as they get older.  The rate of cohort decline is accelerating  From 6% through the seventies, to 28% in the noughties. Readership penetration of UK national daily newspapers by age over time. %19721980199020002010 15-2477.574.863.549.630.2 25-3474.472.260.547.130.9 35-4475.873.263.150.834.1 45-5478.574.66956.137.9 55-6475.373.867.159.947.8 65+66.164.262.958.553.5 Var % -61.1 -58.4 -55.0 -51.7 -36.6 -19.0 -6.2-12.5-15.8-23.2-28.0 Source: UK National Readership Survey

21. C H I S H O L M Information - news Transformation – Ents, escape Concern – emotions emerge Pastime – empty moment Stimulant - Enthusiasm Identification - sympathise Social factor – conversation Usability – practical tips The death of the life cycle We’ve always been brand abandoners (Netherlands) Information - news Transformation – Ents, escape Concern – emotions emerge Pastime – empty moment Stimulant - Enthusiasm Identification - sympathise Social factor – conversation Usability – practical tips

22. C H I S H O L M US ranking (out of 1.2 million websites) 3325 Source: Alexa Death of the lifecycle Is this the new reality (is it sustainable?)

23. C H I S H O L M Conclusions What the trends are telling us

24. C H I S H O L M Conclusions What the trends are telling us  News in print is struggling  Levels of readership are low and declining:  Readership may be declining faster than circulation  Readership among women is particularly affected  Advertising revenues reflect both low levels of readership, and low advertising revenues per copy  Internet penetration in Russia is relatively low, though rising:  News media globally require a new revenue model  There needs to be improved engagement and intensity  For Russia, mobile and tablet offer an optimum route toward business development and profitability:  Highest level of mobile subscription  Maximum reach and intensity  Workable content pricing model  Emerging tablet devices create great navigation and serendipity.

25. C H I S H O L M Conclusions Opportunities  Is there are an opportunity for a new Russian news media to evolve?  The HuffPost model?  A combination of established news sources (RIA Novosti?), and alternative forms of journalism  Focus of social participation  Greater levels of expert contributions and data journalism  Emphasis on mobile/tablet platforms  Here and now  Interactive, multi-media  Tablets will deliver the serendipity solution  Targeted – national to hyper-local, By market segment  Can Russian media overcome the West’s conundrum?

26. C H I S H O L M THANK YOU jim@jimchisholm.net +44 77 75 81 77 97 jim@jimchisholm.net