1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY- REGULATED MARKETS: SOME CONCEPTUAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE STUDIES OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND DECISION THEORY Rodrigo Carlana da Silva & Denis Lima Balaguer Embraer

2. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Introduction Motivation Challenge: the need to extend the methods beyond the technology domains and integrated these methods with another type of forecasting, like those used in economics, politics and meteorology. Solution: contribute to comprehend the nature of the future and, by hypothesis correlated to this comprehension, establish a technological prospective method which integrates knowledge from fields such as science & technology public policy analysis, philosophy and sociology of science & technology and decision theory.

3. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Central Hypothesis What is the future made of? the future is not a continuation of the past but rather as the outcome of the wishes various actors and the constraints imposed on them by the environment. Its purpose is to assist in creating alternative futures and then to select some alternative that allows for maximum freedom of action

4. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Central Hypothesis Range of converge of the future and the institutional impedance

5. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Central Hypothesis Generic Technological Prospective Method

6. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Introduction It may not be expected a perfectly accurate and highly precise prospective. On the other hand, it’s expected that the prospective limit the extension of the uncertainty and provide valuable information to the technology planning manager. Method limitations (conceptual framework): – Applicable only to high-regulated markets, Barriers to the introduction of technological innovations, because of the precautionary principle Concept of Big Science valid. – Time limit of the descriptive scenario

7. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Actors Analysis and Yearnings Determination Science & Technology System Dynamic

8. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Actors Analysis and Yearnings Determination Theoretical Model of the Future

9. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Actors Analysis and Yearnings Determination Actors Analysis Desires Determination Public Policy Analysis Normative Scenario Identification

10. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Possible Technologies Survey Consonance with the conceptual proposition presented above - the importance of the dominant paradigm to the technological future determination: – the technique that seems to be the most appropriate is bibliometric analysis. The bibliometric analysis indicates which are, under the scientific publication point of view, the most prominent research fields. “Publish or perish” – the science that’s not communicated doesn’t exist. – a private science is just as unthinkable as a private language

11. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Possible Technologies Survey Bibliometric Analysis

12. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Selection of Technologies Given the Yearning The election of technologies given the yearnings can be divided in 4 stages: 1.Criteria definition and problem structure definition; 2.Criteria priorization of hierarchical structure; 3.Criteria priorization of non hierarchical structure; 4.Technology priorization.

13. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Selection of Technologies Given the Yearning

14. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Method Description Selection of Technologies Given the Yearning Possible Technologies Survey Bibliometric Analysis

15. TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS Conclusion Proposed method deployed from the generic method Actors Analysis Desires Determination Possible Technologies Survey Selection of Technologies given the Yearning Public Policy Analysis Normative Scenario Identification Bibliometric Analysis Multi-Criteria Analysis TMF & MKT 2 P