1. Welcome Unit 1 Seminar MM305 Wednesday 8:00 PM ET Quantitative Analysis for Management Delfina Isaac

2. Seminar Outline Welcome! Syllabus Overview Contact Information for Instructor Seminar Rules and Format Discussion

3. Syllabus Overview All projects, discussion question posts, and seminar option 2 are due at 11:59 PM ET on the Tuesday that concludes each unit. Late projects, discussion question posts, and seminar option 2 assignments will be accepted, but penalized as follows: Late projects will be marked down 2% for each day it is late. Late discussion question posts will be docked 10% per unit late. Late seminar option 2 assignments will be docked 10% per unit late. (Attending seminar is highly recommended!) Quizzes are due at the end of each unit.

4. Instructor Contact Information Professor Delfina Isaac Email: disaac@kaplan.edudisaac@kaplan.edu AIM Screen name: DelfinaIsaac Office hours: By appointment Phone Conferences: By appointment In order to facilitate the tracking of assignments and all correspondence with me, please be sure to include your Kaplan username and the unit number for the learning activity you are submitting or inquiring about.

5. Seminar Rules and Format Please show up on time for all seminars, participate often in a respectful manner, stay on topic, and stay until the end. If you do come late, please take your “seat” quietly. Social posts (Hi, Bye, rough day at work, my car broke down, etc.) will not help your participation grade. It is important that you try to participate rather than just simply watching. I highly recommend keeping some paper and a pencil handy for trying problems along the way. Also, have your textbook handy and Excel open during seminar. Usual format of seminar will involve discussing a concept and then working with the technology (Excel, Excel QM, PhStat2, or QM for Windows) applicable to that unit.

6. Netiquette Etiquette is the proper and expected way for one to behave in a society or culture; and the cyber world has its own unique society and culture. Never post a message all in CAPS. Please use boldface and italics sparingly Do not use “texting” lingo i.e. ur, brb, ttyl, etc. A smiley face is okay :-) If you’re annoyed or bothered by something, try not to respond too quickly. Take a minute, walk away, and then come back after you’ve cleared your head.

7. What is Quantitative Analysis (QA)? The use of statistical techniques to understand quantitative data and to identify relationships between and among variables. QA uses the scientific approach to managerial decision making. The development of a (mathematical) model of a real world scenario The model provides insight into the solution of the managerial problem Deterministic Models Where all the input data values are known with complete certainty Probabilistic Models Where some input data values are uncertain

8. What is Quantitative Analysis (QA)? QA uses the scientific approach to managerial decision making. Must consider both Quantitative and Qualitative factors. Quantitative Data Numerical factors such as expenses and revenues Qualitative Data Factors that effect the environment which are difficult to quantify, e.g. weather, state laws, new technology, etc. Raw Data Quantitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis Meaningful Information Meaningful Information

9. The Quantitative Analysis (QA) Approach Steps in Modeling: 1.Formulation Translating a problem scenario from words to a mathematical model 2.Solution Solving the model to obtain the optimal solution 3.Interpretation and Sensitivity Analysis Analyzing results and implementing a solution

10. The Quantitative Analysis (QA) Approach Steps in Modeling

11. Modeling in the Real World Models are or can be: complex expensive difficult to sell real worldrealorganizations real problems used in the real world by real organizations to solve real problems

12. How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model Profit = Revenue – Expenses Revenue= (selling price per unit)*(number of units sold) Expenses= Fixed cost + (variable cost per unit)*(number of units sold) Profit = sX - (f + vX) = sX - f - vX, where s = selling price per unit f = fixed cost v = variable cost per unit X = number of units sold

13. Break-Even Point (BEP) The BEP is the number of units sold that will result in $0 profit, so Revenue = Expenses Profit = sX - (f + vX) = sX - f – vX $0 = sX - f - vX $0 = (s-v)X – f X = f/(s-v) BEP = Excel QM Breakeven Analysis QM for Windows Breakeven/Cost-Volume Analysis

14. Excel QM’s Main Menu of Quantitative Models in Excel 2007

15. QM for Windows

16. Example: Break-Even Point (BEP) Let's say you manufacture widgets. Each unit sells at $5. It costs you $2 to make each one, and the fixed costs for the period are $750. What is the break-even point in units and in sales revenue? First, identify what you know from the problem: s = selling price per unit = $5 f = fixed cost = $750 v = variable cost per unit = $2 We need to know: X = number of units sold Recall, BEP = $0 = (s-v)X – f, therefore X = f/(s-v) X = $750/($5-$2) = 250 units break-even sales revenue = 250 * $5 = $1,250

17. Example: Break-Even Analysis in Excel QM

18. Possible Problems In Using Models Defining the problem Developing a model Acquiring input data Developing a solution Testing the solution Analyzing the results Implementing the solution

19. Questions?