1. “Look, I’m underage... ” “Sold!” Arnold H. Levinson, Ph.D. University of Colorado Stacy Hendershott Colorado Tobacco Enforcement Unit Tobacco Sales Increase when Real ID Is Shown

2. Compliance Check Survey Six CO urban-suburban counties Six CO urban-suburban counties Census of outlets (n=1083) Census of outlets (n=1083) State-issued ID with true age State-issued ID with true age Same minors varied use of ID Same minors varied use of ID One attempt per outlet One attempt per outlet

3. Balanced: –Male– Age –Clerk gender, perceived age– Day of week – Clerk asked for ID – Clerk asked for ID Unbalanced No ID ID Female36% 64%** Median Time 11:30 a.m. 12:45 p.m.*** Comparison of Conditions, ID vs. No ID

4. Overall sales rate: Overall sales rate: 12.7% 12.7% Asked to see ID: Asked to see ID:87.2% Relative risk (RR) Relative risk (RR) if ID not asked: 7.1(p<0.0001)

5. Sales Rates, ID Used vs. Not Used (ID Always Requested) Relative risk of sale when ID used: 6.2(p<0.0001)

6. % of Attempts Ending in Sale, By Minor Cases Where ID Was Requested AgeGender No ID Carried ID 17M0.021.7 15M3.414.8 16-17M20.028.6 16F0.03.7 15M0.08.7 16M0.036.8 15M0.08.3 16M0.013.0 15M2.818.8 14M2.12.7 14F0.00.0 17M6.00.0

7. What if … Logistic model of sale with varied ID condition Significant covariates: o minor gender o ages 14 & 17 o clerk age <30 o Weekdays o two counties o asked for ID

8. What’s Going On?  Possible explanations:  Too busy to do it right?  Can’t calculate?  Think showing ID implies 18+?  Think law requires just showing ID?  Ask just for appearances?

9.  Carry ID raise rates (if clerks usually ask).  Don’t use ID lower rates.  Should we be replicating real purchase practices?  How often do kids use ID for real attempts. Implications for Compliance Checks

10. The Compliance-Use Gap: Real or artifact?

11. The Issue: Fewer sales  less smoking

12. Clerk failure to ask ID of underage cigarette customers (same counties, time period) Real (n=590) Simulated (n=1083)

13. Sales Rates, Real vs. Simulated Tries

14.  Real underage shoppers asked for ID less than compliance checkers.  Interpretations:  Different looks and actions.  Real underage shoppers don’t choose stores randomly. don’t choose stores randomly. Conclusions

15.  A few outlets and circumstances can meet adolescent demand.  To Do:  Target stores routinely selling underage.  Target proxy-buying and social giving.  Evaluate impact of comprehensive access control on adolescent smoking.