1. Statistical Thinking [Professor Name] [Class and Section Number]

2. Today’s Learning Objectives 1.Define basic elements of a statistical investigation. 2.Describe the role of p-values and confidence intervals in statistical inference. 3.Describe the role of random sampling in generalizing conclusions from a sample to a population. 4.Describe the role of random assignment in drawing cause-and-effect conclusions. 5.Critique statistical studies.

3. Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics (SATS) Scale Think  Pair  Share These questions are designed to identify your attitudes towards statistics.

4. Overview Introduction Key Components to a Statistical Investigation Distributional Thinking Statistical Significance Control, Probability, Level of Significance Generalizability Samples and Populations, Random Sample, Margin of Error Cause and Effect Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment

5. Introduction  6 cups of coffee:  Men  10% lower chance of dying  Women  15% lower chance of dying  Does this mean you should start drinking coffee or increase your own coffee habit?

6. Key Components to a Statistical Investigation Planning the studyExamining the dataInferring from the dataDrawing Conclusions

7. Overview Introduction Key components to a Statistical Investigation Distributional Thinking Statistical Significance Control, Probability, Level of Significance Generalizability Samples and Populations, Random Sample, Margin of Error Cause and Effect Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment

8. Distributional Thinking  Analyzing the pattern of data variation, called the distribution of the variable, often reveals insights.  Develop an example of a distribution, of one variable, that you often encounter in your life.  What is the variable and how does it vary?

9. Distributional Thinking Table 1. Frequency tables of patient reading levels and pamphlet readability levels. Figure 1. Comparison of patient reading levels and pamphlet readability levels.

10. Collect and Display Data  How many concerts did you go to this past year? – Write your answer down and turn it in  What is the best way to visually represent the information?  What single score best represents the data?  How much variability is in the data?

11. Distributional Thinking 1.What should you look for when examining this data to interpret it correctly? 2.How are people able to manipulate visual depictions of statistics to skew conclusions? Tables and graphs are often presented in mass media; sometimes accurately, sometimes not. Task Performance

12. Overview Introduction Key Components to a Statistical Investigation Distributional Thinking Statistical Significance Control, Probability, Level of Significance Generalizability Samples and Populations, Random Sample, Margin of Error Cause and Effect Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment

13. Statistical Significance Control  Are there other variables in the infant study that the researchers missed? Probability/ p-value  P-Value extravaganza P-Value extravaganza Level of Significance  p <.05

14. Overview Introduction Key Components to a Statistical Investigation Distributional Thinking Statistical Significance Control, Probability, Level of Significance Generalizability Samples and Populations, Random Sample, Margin of Error Cause and Effect Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment

15. Generalizability Samples and Populations

16. Generalizability  How similar does a sample need to be to the population?  Can you generalize from one class to the whole grade?  Random Sample  Margin of Error

17. Overview Introduction Key Components to a Statistical Investigation Distributional Thinking Statistical Significance Control, Probability, Level of Significance Generalizability Samples and Populations, Random Sample, Margin of Error Cause and effect Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment

18.  Statistical Tendency Cause and Effect If the p-value is small (under.05) the observed mean scores were not coincidental  Random Assignment

19. Activity: Popular Press Statistics

20. CAT: The Muddiest Point  What was the muddiest point about today’s class?  Write down what concept you are still struggling to understand.

21. Conclusion

22. Photo Attribution Slides 1 & 21 Photo Credit: Integral to the Plot widdowquinn https://www.flickr.com/photos/widdowquinn/2664625515/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/ Slide 3 Photo Credit: Questions1 Grisel D´An https://www.flickr.com/photos/128454566@N06/15893429463 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/ Slide 5 Photo Credit: Espresso Coffee Maker and Coffee Beans Lilian Wong https://www.flickr.com/photos/bonjourwill/4527989917/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ Slide 8 Photo Credit: Fisheye + Ringflash + Pub = Paul Stevenson https://www.flickr.com/photos/53496815@N00/4566210575/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Slide 10 Photo Credit: Concert Die Fantastischen Vier #13: Hands up! Andreas H https://www.flickr.com/photos/andih/2081568036/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/ Slide 13 Photo Credit: V.R.K. Ian D. Keating https://www.flickr.com/photos/ian-arlett/5610316258/in/photostream/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Slide 15 Photo Credit: Fun in Galway Barnacles Budget Accommodation https://www.flickr.com/photos/baranclesdublingalway/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Slide 16 Photo Credit: As the Sun Sets Eric https://www.flickr.com/photos/29498428@N00/7314619952/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/ Slide 18 Photo Credit: Crowd down the street Guillaume https://www.flickr.com/photos/guiguibu91/2889883615 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Photo Credit: Desktop Summit group photo Kat https://www.flickr.com/photos/kitty-kat/6049220331 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Slide 19 Photo Credit: Somali tech focus group 1 City of Seattle Community Tech https://www.flickr.com/photos/seattlecommunitytech/8749631132 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Slide 20 Photo Credit: Illustrated silhouette of a black cat nehtaeh79 http://www.freestockphotos.biz/stockphoto/16624 http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/