1. Tulsa Area Forecast 2016
Tulsa Regional Chamber Economic Outlook Conference
December 2, 2015
Bob Ball
Tulsa Regional Chamber

2. Total Employment Growth Forecast for 2015 1
Total Employment Growth Forecast for % in December ,400 jobs

3. Total Employment Growth Forecast for 2015 0
Total Employment Growth Forecast for % in March ,600 jobs

4. Looks like growth of 0.6% for 2015 +2,600

5. 2016 Employment Forecast 0.35% +1,560 jobs

6. Tulsa Total Employment
+1.6
+2.6

7. Tulsa Total Employment Growth

8. Tulsa Total Employment
-1.750
+1.6
+2.6

9. Tulsa Total Personal Income Growth Forecast for 2015 6
Tulsa Total Personal Income Growth Forecast for % December 2014

10. Tulsa Total Personal Income Growth Forecast for 2015 6
Tulsa Total Personal Income Growth Forecast for % December %

11. 2016 Personal Income Forecast 2.4%

12. Tulsa Personal Income and Wages

13. Criteria for Target-sector Selection
Sheer size of the sector
Availability of work force, work force training
Interrelationships among sectors
Infrastructure and assets

14. Target Sectors Energy Advanced Manufacturing Aerospace Health Care
Professional Services and Regional HQs
Information Technology
Transportation, Distribution & Logistics

15. Tulsa Total Employment
-1.750
+1.6
+2.6

16. Impact of 2015 O&G-related Employment Losses on Tulsa
1,750 jobs supported 3,124 additional jobs.
10 jobs in O&G-related industries support 18 additional jobs.
Lost O&G wages of $234.3 million remove the support for $190.5 million in additional wages.
1,750 jobs produced goods and services valued at $352.8 million in Tulsa, or 0.6 percent of gross product.

17. Target Sectors Energy Advanced Manufacturing Aerospace Health Care
Professional Services and Regional HQs
Information Technology
Transportation, Distribution & Logistics

18. These 6 Target Sectors Account for:
25 % of employment in the Tulsa economy
35 % of income and salaries
Average wage of $63,300, 46% higher than the overall average

19. Energy/oil and gas Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 2.9%
Growth in 2015: -7.5%
-600 jobs
Growth in 2016: -4.0%
-290 jobs

20. Manufacturing Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 2.1%
Growth in 2015: -5.8%
-3,000 jobs
Growth in 2016: -6.1%
-2,980 jobs

21. Strength of the dollar

22. Machinery Manufacturing
Avg annual growth five years through 2014: %
Growth in 2015: -7.2%
-990 jobs
Growth in 2016: -11.1%
-1,400 jobs

23. Aerospace Avg annual growth five years through 2014: flat
Growth in 2015: 1.7%
Growth in 2016: 2.5%

24. Transportation, Distribution, Logistics
Avg annual growth five years through 2014: %
Growth in 2015: -0.5%
Growth in 2016: -1.5%

25. Professional & Business Services
Avg annual growth five years through 2014: %
Growth in 2015: 1.6%
Growth in 2016: 2.0%

26. Information Technology
Avg annual growth five years through 2014: %
Growth in 2015: -0.7%
Growth in 2016: -0.9%

27. Health Care Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 1.6%
Growth in 2015: 1.9%
Growth in 2016: 2.3%

28. Caveats to the Forecast