1. OVERVIEW: CHESAPEAKE BAY PROGRAM DEVELOPMENTS AND WATER & CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVITIES Water Resources Technical Committee Oct. 29, 2015 Presented by Tanya T. Spano, RWQM Chief (202) 962-3776 / tspano@mwcog.orgtspano@mwcog.org

2. Chesapeake Bay Program Developments and Water & Climate Change Activities Background (highlights only) Current (key points) Questions (technical & policy) Opportunities for Input (over next 3+ years) Recommendations (FY16 planned vs. new) 10/29/2015WRTC Meeting 2 Note on slides: all graphics derived from slides originally presented by CBP or EPA Outline for Today’s Presentations

3.  Chesapeake 2000 Agreement (C2K) (2000) - Voluntary  Formal CBPC comments  TMDL & Watershed Implementation Plans (WIP) Development  Water Quality Criteria & Designated Uses  Water Quality Model Use & Allocation Methodology  Technical Support (EA & LTI)  WRTC technical workshops  COG staff active participation in CBP workgroups/committees  Formal CBPC comments on Draft TMDL and Phase I WIPs  Executive Order #13508 issued & Two-Year Milestone Reporting Commitment (2009)  Bay TMDL Issued (92 separate TMDLs) (2010) - Regulatory  COG staff prepared formal CBPC comments on official TMDL & use of WIPs  Bay Partnership agreed to 2017 & 2025 WIP Schedule to meet Bay TMDL 10/29/2015WRTC Meeting 3 Chesapeake Bay Program - Background

4.  Changes to Suite of Technical Tools - Modeling Tools, Segmentation, Delivery Factors, BMPs, Land User, Input Data – all constantly evolving (e.g., Watershed Model - was 4.3, then 5.3, now working on 6.0)  WIPs (Phase I, II, and now planning for III) – all w/ EPA oversight  Two-Year Milestones (2YM) – assessment of WIP progress to meet Bay TMDL allocations (2014-2015 current)  Management Strategies (2015)  29 different strategies in five different categories  New - Climate Change & Toxic strategies (4 total)  2017 Mid-Point Assessment (technical work underway) 10/29/2015WRTC Meeting 4 Chesapeake Bay Program – Current

5. 10/29/2015WRTC Meeting 5 Chesapeake Bay Program – Current Water & Climate Activities Chesapeake Bay Program – Current Water & Climate Activities CBP & COG Region Efforts Both address mitigation & adaptation COG’s Climate & Energy Programs focuses on tracking & quantifying efforts by local govt.’s/water utilities in COG region; responding to extreme weather events/flooding; & water-energy linkages/GHG CBP’s Management Strategies focused on Bay- wide & state focused work; but also reflecting/evaluating local actions

6.  Which are most critical updates/upgrades & will they be completed in time for use in 2017 Mid-Point Assessment?  What will be the net impact of all these changes (e.g., modeling tools, data, practices, efficiencies, lag times, uncertainty analysis, climate impacts, etc.)?  Are the best data/accurate information/reasonable assumptions being properly reflected in the various models?  How will changes affect loading & progress assumptions & Phase III WIP expectations?  What are the implications for MSIV permit requirements?  What are the differences in what monitoring vs. modeling progress assessments are showing?  What are the explanations for any differences?  How will those findings affect the 2017 Mid-Point Assessment?  What if there are short-falls/gaps?  How will they be handled (by state/by sector/by tributary)?  Is it possible that the overall or tributary TMDL goals or allocations may change?  How might this affect assigned load allocations & permit conditions (for SW & WW)?  Who has ‘ownership’ of those allocations?  What are the equity implications?  How will major/Bay-wide allocation issues be addressed this time (e.g., Conowingo Dam sediment loads, Eastern Short TP loads)?  What process will be used to assess overall impacts & the potential need to revisit the Bay TMDL or agreed upon 2025 full implementation deadline? 10/29/2015WRTC Meeting 6 Chesapeake Bay Program – Questions

7. CREATE THE MODEL REVIEW THE MODEL USE THE MODEL 10/29/2015 7 WE ARE HERE Chesapeake Bay Program – Opportunities for Input Ongoing: COG & NVRC staff input via Work Groups; & CBPC/WRTC comments on Key CBP work products New: COG WQGIT At-Large Member (thru 2016); membership on new work groups (CC, Phase III WIP, Stakeholder Process); & consultant to supplement COG staff analysis Input via STAC workshops, detailed review of Modeling & Monitoring results, assessments, & uncertainty analysis; CC impacts, etc. Input on Phase III WIPs, outreach/messaging, detailed analysis of the application of the modeling tools, etc. Technically robust Input on 2017 Mid-Point Assessment (60%) & Bay TMDL impacts

8.  FY 2016 Planned - Active participation & monitoring of critical CBP activities & work group efforts  Continue use of OWML Chain Bridge data to compare to CBP results  Plan technical workshops to update/inform & seek input from WRTC  Continue to identify key policy issues for CBPC  Continue to provide technical/policy input & voice for COG members  Continue to coordinate with other local govt./utility organizations on common technical & policy issues  FY16 New - Propose use of specialized consultant support to review modeling tools, data and related progress/attainment assessments [Similar to pre-Bay TMDL work conducted in 2009-2010]  Focus on Watershed Model, Water Quality & Sediment Transport Model, Water Quality Criteria & Attainment framework, and Climate Change assumptions  Organize WRTC focus group to help frame issues for consultant  Proposed to reallocate some existing funds, ask Blue Plains IMA-RC to help w/ supplemental funding, plus outreach efforts to other organizations to identify potential financial or in-kind support 10/29/2015WRTC Meeting 8 Chesapeake Bay Program – Recommendations