1. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS (proposal) Kampanart Piyathamrongchai University College London Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis 26 February 2003

2. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 2 Introduction Let’s introduce the work with this question ‘How growth of a city and its surrounding hinterlands?’ Human geographers have attempted to answer this question by exploring many theories and models. Those are utilized as norm to explain the real urban phenomena in several parts of the world. Evolutions of computer graphic and geographic information sciences have resulted several new higher potential ways to model the urban growth phenomena. It’s still not delimitated of imagination, how complex of model can be applied by these technologies.

3. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 3 Introduction Cellular automata (CA) model Dynamic spatial model (DSM) t1t2 Urban – Regional system

4. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 4 Introduction Integrating DSM to CA model makes possibility to define complex spatio-temporal transition rules. Integrating DSM to the model makes possibility to use powerful GIS functions in order to reveal spatio-temporal behavior of urban and regional system. Integrating CA to DSM makes possibility to increasing the temporal process of phenomena into spatial analysis. Focus more in urban-regional system to implement the model is conceivable to set up cross-scale simulation framework. Focus more in urban-regional system into the complex model might be useful to improve some famous urban and regional theories.

5. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 5 Objective To use of CA technique and GIS to model spatio- temporal complexity behavior of urban and regional system

6. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 6 Scope of this study To integrate the CA simulation technique and dynamic spatial model to reveal interaction of urban and regional system. To explore variables or indicators in order to measure the centrality and hierarchy of nodes (cities and towns in a region) and find out the interaction and diffusion pattern between entire nodes. To implement the complex settlement simulation model. To recommend the model in order to use as decision- based urban and regional management.

7. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 7 Study Area The study area is Bangkok municipality and surrounding towns and communities.

8. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 8 Study Area

9. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 9 Study Area (Other choices) This might be reasonably to set up the simulation model to other regions of Thailand because Bangkok city is the apex metropolis. There are some difficulties to utilize outcomes of the model to this city. It might be easier and efficiency to perform the model and put it to use with the others that are taking after Bangkok city. Other regions, can be potentially investigated, for instance; ChiangMai and Phitsanulok in northern part, KhonKaen and NakornRatchasima in northeastern part etc.

10. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 10 Work Plans 1-56 - 1213 - 2425 - 2829 - 36 Background theories review Literatures review CA Model and DSM implementation review Data Collection Data manipulation Conceptual model Model implementation Data analysis and programming Model Evaluation and Finalize the user product Final writing up Quantify centrality, hierarchy and interaction of nodes 0% 100% Month

11. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 11 In progress Background Review : To catch the concepts, several papers, notes, books and internet documents, concern to cellular automata, dynamic spatial model, urban and regional system theories, have being reviewed. Literatures Review : More precisely, the concerned papers and other documents have being explored critically. This should be finished at the tenth month and the end of first year of study respectively. 1-56 - 1213 - 2425 - 2829 - 36 Background theories review Literatures review

12. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 12 Conceptual framework (temporary) Dynamic Spatial Model CA and Diffusion model Decision rule of transition for generating or not generating a new cell The CA model returns a new situation at time t such as size of urban suburban Spatial Interaction Model Population Model Nodal Model Hierarchy Modification Model Spatial information in time t + 1 return to the dynamic spatial model Spatial information from time t will be used as base to generate a new situation in the next time step

13. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 13 Conceptual framework (temporary) CA and Diffusion model t1 -> t2 Urban form State at t2 CA algorithm Mean information Field : MIF Size of urban objects Compactness index Predictive population Modified hierarchy of nodes Gravity model Sphere of influence Potential surface Centrifugal&Centripetal Core-Periphery model Spatial interaction model DSM Decision rule of transition Accessibility Transportation Land use Urban-regional growth policy etc. Urban-region Growth Map Dynamic maps return criteria by

14. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 14 Node, Hierarchy and Centrality

15. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 15 CA and Diffusion model T = 1 Spatial interaction Predictive population in spatial database Existing urban area Traditional GIS in DSM framework Decision rule of transition in CA and diffusion model T = 2

16. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 16 CA and Diffusion model Spatial interaction Predictive population in spatial database Existing urban area Traditional GIS in DSM framework Decision rule of transition in CA and diffusion model T = 2T = 3

17. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 17 Spatial Interaction T = 1 How and how much do both two nodes interact spatially together? Potential Surface?Sphere of influence?

18. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 18 Centrifugal and Centripetal forces Another interesting spatial interaction framework Two counteracting forces which are said to cause changes in the pattern of land use in urban areas. The centripetal force causes centralization attracting establishments to the central area where they may benefit from the advantages of accessibility and agglomeration economies. The centrifugal force causes decentralization and urban sprawl as it pushes dwelling and businesses away from congested, expensive inner city areas towards the suburbs.

19. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 19 Centrifugal and Centripetal forces To apply this two forces in this simulation, the balance of two forces may be defined as levels. New cities tend to be activated by ‘centripetal force’. This causes a new economic activities in new towns. Unplanned and old cities tend to be stimulated by ‘centrifugal force’. This causes urban expansion and sprawl. If the level of forces can be defined quantitatively, this should be useful for making more reality.

20. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 20 Dynamic Spatial model Static spatial variables Dynamic spatial variables CA and Diffusion Model Spatial interaction model Each time step Transition Rule

21. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 21 Dynamic Spatial model Static spatial variables Dynamic spatial variables Spatial interaction Population&density Existing urban area Other predictive vars. ……… Barrier and Impedance Land policy Other static vars. ……… Physical variables

22. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 22 Data Base Multi-date satellite images Cell-based GIS modelling GIS database Maps Field works Tabulated data and other Documents CA and Diffusion model in Cell-based GIS programming Dynamic spatial model (DSM) t1 t2

23. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 23 Next Steps to explore CA and Diffusion algorithms on GIS-based programming How to implement spatial interaction model Which spatial interaction models are suitable for this simulation model The criteria and weight definition in DSM How to visualize the model as dynamic maps and urban –region growth maps

24. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 24 Expected Results The complex spatial model that can illustrate simulated results both in urban and regional scale. Dynamic maps represent the growth of cities and their neighbors. The framework of integration of CA model and dynamic spatial model. A flexible simulation model that can be improved as decision support system for urban and regional management.

25. Complexity Settlement Simulation using CA model and GIS CASA : 26 Feb 2003 : 25 Next Steps Defining specific study area and collecting preliminary data. Criticizing more concerned documents in order to fine-adjust the conceptual framework. Quantifying the centrality, hierarchy and interaction of nodes (cities and towns) in urban and regional scale. Preliminary model implementation for testing the model.