2. Claude Grasland, Université Paris Diderot Paris 7 ENA – CHEE, 20 Janvier 2010 Partie 3 QUELLE VISION STRATEGIQUE DE L’EUROPE DANS LE MONDE ?

3. Once upon a time, the 9 may 1950,...

5. A THEORETICAL APPROACH

6. AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH

7. Criteria 1 : ACCESSIBILITY

8. Criteria 2 : HISTORICAL LINKS

9. Criteria 3 : INTERACTIONS

10. Criteria 4 : COMPLEMENTARITIES

11. SYNTHETIC INDEX OF EU27+2 INFLUENCE

12. SYNTHETIC INDEX OF INFLUENCE

14. STRATEGIG TYPOLOGY

15. Type A : Integration (Ukrainia, Tunisia, Russia, Turkey, …) States localised in the immediate neighbourhood of EU+2 whose trade and air relations are strongly polarised by EU+2. They do not necessary share a common language or religion but they are fully integrated to EU+2 from functional point of view and their delimitation fit to the area of the neighbourhood policy What is at stake is not the question of membership to EU or belonging to “Europe” but the existence of an area of cooperation based on proximity and complementarities.

16. Type B : Responsability (Cameroon, Nigeria, Senegal, Congo, …) States for which EU+2 has a great responsibility in their future development. First because the historical responsibility of colonization and exploitation of African countries. Second because Africa could be a major centre of the World production in the future and its young population will be an opportunity. Many other world powers are actually investing in this area (Japan, China, Brazil, USA, …) and the historical influence of Europe is decreasing very quickly.

17. Type C : Opportunity (USA, Australia, Brazil, India, Israël, …) Countries located at relatively long distance from EU+2 but sharing a common language or a common history. They could be very precious allies for EU+2 in a global World were services represented the major part of added value and where scientific and cultural innovations are major factors of long term development. Concern English speaking developed countries like USA, Canada, Australia or New Zealand which has always been in strong relation with European countries (both politically and economically), But also emerging countries (India, Brazil, Mexico) which are crucial strategic partners for the future of Europe as they are actually relatively independent from the influence of other major competitors of European Union (China, Japan, USA).

18. Type D : Challenge (China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq…) Countries on which EU+2 is less able to have an influence or to develop easily relations because of differences of languages, geographical distance, weakness of historical relations... But those countries are located in a space where energetic resources are great and the economies are the most dynamic. EU+2 countries and firms are actually very attracted and fascinated by this part of the World where they try to invest and to gain positions. But we can really ask if it is a reasonable strategy in long term. The geopolitical and cultural influence of EU+2 countries is indeed particularly week in this part of the world and they have no controls on what could happen in case of economic and political crisis.

19. TOWARD POLITICAL VISIONS ?

20. What are the possible strategic visions of Europe in the World ?

21. THE “CONTINENT” VISION: towards a protected and closed European territory

22. Expected impact of the “Continent vision” Territorial assets: (i) Trans European Networks implemented at a large European scale (ii) Central & Eastern European benefit from Western subsidies and FDI (iii) The Regional Policy focuses on CEEC’s less developed areas Shortcomings: (i) negative impact on EU’s peripheral territories (Eastward, e.g. Baltic States are no more the interface between Russia and UE; and Southward) (ii) Eastern markets are not sufficien per se for Western investors (iii) Europe as a « great Swiss »

23. THE “CENTRE-PERIPHERY” VISION: towards a dissymmetrical EU / neighbourhood pattern

24. Expected impact of the “Centre-Periphery” vision Assets : (i) a greater euromediterranean integration, despite dissymmetrical (2010 FTZ) (ii) Mediterranean European territories are boosted (iii) Europe catches up with Asian and American counterparts (although not on the high-tech base of the Lisbon strategy) Shortcomings : (i) the relocation of the environmental burden on the southern shore of the Mediterranean is not sustainable (iii) no de-pollution of the Mediterranean (iii) no change in the migration mix: lowly educated migrants toward mediterranean Europe (iv) Southern brain drain is not stopped (v) North Africa as the Europe’s gatekeeper against poor African migrants

25. THE “ARCHIPELAGO” VISION: toward rising territorial polarisation

26. Expected impact of the “Archipelago” vision Assets: (i) major European cities become highly internationalized metropolitan areas (ii) Western countries benefit much from such international metropolis (iii) these Wetern metropolis are most integrated in a top urban network Shortcomings: (i) increase of territorial disparities in Europe (ii) Eastern member states rapidly loose their competitive advantage (rise of costs in their capital cities) (iii) dramatic destabilisation of the Med neighbours (rough 2010 liberalisation) (iv)Border: toward the « continent » vision

27. THE “NORTH-SOUTH REGION ” VISION: an attempt of pro-active scenario

28. Expected impact of the “North-South Region” vision Assets: (i) Complementarity between Europe (capital, know how) and its neighbours (markets, labour forces) (ii) a regulated relationship (trade agreements but also environment, labour rights, …) (iii) Europe peripheral territories are boosted (iv) the European region becomes the major one in the World Shortcomings: 0 (it’s politics, stupid !)

30. The missing sentence of 9 may 1950 declaration... (FRA) « L'Europe pourra, avec des moyens accrus, poursuivre la réalisation de l'une de ses tâches essentielles : le développement du continent africain. » (FRA) « L'Europe pourra, avec des moyens accrus, poursuivre la réalisation de l'une de ses tâches essentielles : le développement du continent africain. » (DEU) « Europa wird dann mit vermehrten Mitteln die Verwirklichung einer seiner wesentlichsten Aufgaben verfolgen können: die Entwicklung des afrikanischen Erdteils. » (DEU) « Europa wird dann mit vermehrten Mitteln die Verwirklichung einer seiner wesentlichsten Aufgaben verfolgen können: die Entwicklung des afrikanischen Erdteils. » (EN) « With increased resources Europe will be able to pursue the achievement of one of its essential tasks, namely, the development of the African continent.» (EN) « With increased resources Europe will be able to pursue the achievement of one of its essential tasks, namely, the development of the African continent.» (SPA) « Europa podrá, con mayores medios, proseguir la realización de una de sus tareas esenciales : el desarrollo del continente africano. » (SPA) « Europa podrá, con mayores medios, proseguir la realización de una de sus tareas esenciales : el desarrollo del continente africano. » (ROM) Europa va putea, cu mult mai multe mijloace, sa treaca la realizarea unuia dintre obiectivele sale esentiale: dezvoltarea continentului african. (ROM) Europa va putea, cu mult mai multe mijloace, sa treaca la realizarea unuia dintre obiectivele sale esentiale: dezvoltarea continentului african. (BUL) С увеличаване на ресурсите си Европа ще може да постигне успех и в една от основните си задачи - развитието на африканския континент. (BUL) С увеличаване на ресурсите си Европа ще може да постигне успех и в една от основните си задачи - развитието на африканския континент.