3. Comparison of modern Galápagos coral  18 O, ‘local’ SST, and NINO3.4 index Seasonal data (thin lines) with 9pt binomial filtered (thick lines) Coral = Pavona clavus from San Cristobal (Shen, Cole et al, 1992); HadISST = SST for 1° square centred on 89.5°W, 0.5°S (Rayner et al., 2003); NINO3.4 = OS SST (Kaplan et al, 1998)

4. Comparison of modern and fossil Galápagos coral  18 O seasonal and 9pt binomial filter2.5-7 year bandpass filtered

7. Location of natural archives that have been used to infer changes in ENSO through the Holocene (last ~10,000 years) 1 +ve SST anom. 2 3 4 5 December 1982 Sources: IGOSS nmc 1, 2 = lakes; 3 = geoarchaeological evidence and marine sediments; 4, 5 = annually-banded

10. CORAL AND INSTRUMENTAL RECORDS OF ENSO SINCE 1880 all records treated with a 2.5-7 year bandpass filter to reveal ENSO variability

12. NINO3 region SST anomalies in two 50-year periods of the 1,000- year HadCM3 unforced control experiment Source: Collins et al, 2001