2. International Relations Foreign Policy

3. Alain BOGE. *Professor IESEG School of Business-Catholic University-Lille. *Joint Professor Lyon 3 University. * Negocia-Paris, ESCE-Paris. *Joint Professor Faculty of Management Studies (FMS) Delhi University. Indira Gandhi National Open University-Delhi. *University of Life Sciences-Economy Dpt-Prag. *Guest Professor Vietnam Commerce University (VCU)-Hanoi. *Consultant in International Trade.

4. Programm 1.Definitions. 2.Theories. 3.Foreign Policy. 4.Geopolitics. 5.United States of America. 6.Asia : China, India. 7.Future of International relations.

5. What are International Relations? The studies of factors and processes that affect the interactions among states and non-states actors across national boundaries, as furthered by the development and testing of facts and hypotheses about international outcomes.

6. Political Geography Military Strategy International Law Diplomatic History International Political Economy

7. Overview Types of actors – States – Non-state actors Types of systems – Democratic. – Federalism. – Totalitarism/Dictature. Types of interactions between actors – Harmony, Coordination, Cooperation, Conflict, Alliances.

8. The central actor: the state The state is “a human community that successfully claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory.” – Max Weber, 1919 States are identified by mutual recognition. – 192 members in the United Nations

9. Today’s globalized world is understood by examining the actions and the reactions of approximately 192 nation- states towards each other. 192 Nations are members in the United Nations (2010) 192 Nations are members in the United Nations (2010) 204 “Nations” Participated in the 2008 Beijing Olympics 204 “Nations” Participated in the 2008 Beijing Olympics 21 st Century World

10. The Nation Common identity – Ethno-linguistic, religious, ideological Common history or origin – Real or mythical Claim on homeland Desire for self-rule Identity can be created through common symbols and education. “Lebensraum.”

11. Examples of Nations Nation-states – Japan – Denmark Multi-national states – China (Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Xin Jiang). Stateless nations – Kurds (in Iraq, Turkey, Iran) – Basques (in Spain, France) Divided nations – Korea (North and South)

14. The Nation - is a cultural and/or ethnic entity. The State – is a political and geopolitical entity. The Nation-State is an area (territory) defined by specific borders, inhabited by people who share a common culture (although the population can be ethnically diverse) and who are governed by a central government. The Nation-State

15. Non-state Actors Debate about significance Importance varies by issue area – Nations – International Organizations – Multinational Corporations – Non-governmental Organizations

16. What is legitimacy? Legitimacy is the belief that those in power have the right to rule. Sources of legitimacy – Traditional – Charismatic – Rational/Legal Authority is power with legitimacy.

17. Sovereignty Sovereignty is the defining characteristic of the state. An entity is sovereign when it is the highest political authority in the system. By definition, no other unit has coercive authority within a state's territory, so therefore states are sovereign. All sovereign states have nominally equal authority.

18. Development of Sovereignty 1648 – Principle of sovereignty is first articulated in the Peace of Westphalia – Ended Thirty Years War by giving rulers authority to determine religion within their own territory 1713 – Principle of sovereignty is solidified in the Treaty of Utrecht 1945 – Sovereign equality of members enshrined in United Nations charter

21. The Westphalian System The 30 Years War Treaty of Westphalia: – Recognized the existence and defined the rights of sovereign states Pluralism Recognition

22. The International System Includes all actors who have regular interactions Scope depends on transportation and communications technology Examples: – Ancient Greece – Global today Based on Power.

23. Concept of Power

24. Power ?

25. Christianity a Power ?

26. Islam, a Power ?

27. China, a Power ?

28. Financial Markets, a Power ?

29. Power? Jaipur, India

30. Power? Thailand Algeria South Korea

31. Power in the System Power is the ability of A to get B to do what A wants B to do. Inherently relational Sources of power – Land – Natural Resources – Population

32. Types of Power Military power = United States of America. Market power = China. Cultural power = France.

33. Defining Power in a Meaningful Way is Difficult The Venn diagram shows which states are in the top ten in one, two and three categories. What does this kind of analysis show us? What does it obscure? What other categories might be used to assess power? Are the different categories of equal importance? All these questions complicate efforts to assess the role of power in international politics.

34. Superpower A superpower is a state with a leading position in the international system and the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale. – US, USSR, British Empire (before Cold War) – Brazil, China, EU, India, Russia (after Cold War)

36. 35 Definition of Soft Power “What is soft power? It is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payment. It arises from the attractiveness of a country’s culture, political ideals, and policies. When our policies are seen as legitimate in the eyes of others, our soft power is enhanced… When you can get others to admire your ideals and to want what you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction.” -- Joseph S. Nye Jr

37. Definition of soft power Soft power is an ability to attract others; such an attraction serves to persuade others to accept one’s purposes without explicit threat or violent exchange (Nye, 2004) Three ways to transform soft power resources into soft power effectiveness. First, ability to shape the preferences of others; Second, the ability to legitimate one’s values, cultures and policies ; Third, capacity to construct rules and norms which limit other’s activities.

38. Sources of Soft Power Culture (in places where it is attractive to others) Political values (when it lives up to them at home and abroad) Foreign policies (when they are seen as legitimate and having moral authority)

39. The Nature of Soft Power Power dpends on context – who relates to whom under what circumstances – but soft power dpends more than hard power unpon the existence of a willing interpreter and receivers’ Soft power is context specific, taht is, a form of soft power is relevant to only one specific country or a specific group in that country Soft power, in general, in not controlled by the government or singl organisation. Soft power comes in various sources owned by non-state actors. Exceptions...

40. Balance of Power Peace most likely to be maintained when military power is distributed so that no single power or bloc can dominate An ambiguous concept Weakness invites attack, so countervailing power must be used to deter potential aggressors Size principle: competing alliances are roughly equal in power

41. Balance of power Robert Jervis systemic negative feedback – System is anarchic – Units/states wish to survive – Units/states have freedom of alignment – Units/states go to war if necessary Kenneth Waltz – System is anarchic – States want to survive

42. Balance of power and alliances Alliances are not friendships Alliances are marriages of convenience Pledge of military help of A in case of military attack against B Induced by self-help in anarchy Provide security guarantees to states Provide deterrence

43. System structure - polarity What counts as a pole? How to measure power? Size of territory Size of population Economic strength Military strength Technological development Political stability

44. Projection of the Largest Global Economies by 2020

45. Multipolarity Three or more Great Powers Example – Europe at the beginning of the 20 th century Attempts to balance power make system war- prone

46. Multipolarity and alliances Power divided among a handful of actors Impossibility to change it by own means High degree of uncertainty Search for possible allies Allies needed = less leeway

47. Bipolarity Two great powers Examples – Athens and Sparta in Ancient Greece – USA and USSR during Cold War Relatively stable TODAY ?

48. Bipolarity and alliances Power divided roughly evenly Only polar states can change the balance Certainty about enemies/danger Alliances are less necessary If alliances exist, they are dominated by the polar state Prestige factors at play

49. Unipolarity One great power Example – the US right now....? May encourage other states to align against the superpower

51. Unipolarity and alliances Only one relevant polar state Low likelihood of balance against it No state-like enemies Alliances even less necessary If they exist, are used for coalitions of the willing in an ad hoc manner

52. International Organizations Institutions with formal membership and procedures Only states are members Membership can be limited or universal Purpose may be broad or narrow

53. Examples of IOs Limited Membership, Narrow Purpose: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Limited Membership, Broad Purpose: African Union Universal Membership, Narrow Purpose: Universal Postal Union Universal Membership, Broad Purpose: United Nations

54. Multinational Corporations MNCs are organizations that seek to make a profit by engaging in foreign production, marketing, finance, and staffing through directly controlled affiliates located in several states. These companies are organized to cover the world.

55. Examples of MNCs Coca-Cola Sony LVMH

57. Non-Governmental Organizations Broad category - Not states and non-profit Includes religions, charities, political activists, academic research communities, and even terrorist groups.

58. Examples of NGOs Roman Catholic Church International Red Cross Greenpeace Doctors Without Borders

59. THEORIES

60. Friedrich August von Hayek "without a theory, the facts are silent” http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/f/friedrich_august_von_haye.html

61. What is a theory? Simplification of reality Perspective – tells you where to look Statement about cause and effect – Which variables go together? (correlation) – Why does this regularity occur? (causal mechanism) Independent/explanatory variable = cause Dependent variable = effect/outcome

62. Concepts Paradigm: Dominant way of looking at a particular subject; structured patterns of inquiry and interpretation Theory: Set of hypotheses postulating relationships between variables; used to describe, explain, and predict; must be falsifiable and stand the test of time

63. What is a hypothesis? A hypothesis is a testable implication of a theory. Each theory generates many hypotheses. Evidence in favor of a hypothesis supports (but does not prove) the theory. Evidence against a hypothesis requires modifying or abandoning the theory. – Theories should only be abandoned in favor of other theories.

64. The Three Theories Realism Liberalism Constructivism Others – Marxism – Post-modernism and post-structuralism

65. Realism

66. Realism (Neo-Realism) Nature of the International System: Anarchy – For the realist, anarchy signifies that there is no supranational authority that is able to provide security – Disclaimer: International anarchy in this sense does not necessarily imply disorder or conflict. – Rather, it is a framework for interpreting other “players” actions. – Differs from anarchy advocated in counterplans and kritiks. Anarchist philosophy seeks to end state coercion while realists are distinctly statist.

67. Realism (Neo-Realism) Primary Actors: States (“unit-level” politics) – Because of anarchy at the international level, states revert to “state of nature” and act in their own self-interest (think Machiavelli, Hobbes). – Neo-realists (also called Structural Realists) examine how non-state structures influence decisions, but still place states at the center.

68. Realism Six features of the realist tradition: Claims a monopoly on understanding reality Strong sense of tragedy/ considerable degree of pessimism concerning a more peaceful world Almost exclusive focus on the “political” Clear-cut distinction between domestic & international politics; almost exclusive priority to the latter Theories within realism are all theories of conflict Realism tends to cultivate a cyclical view of history

69. Realism (Neo-Realism)  Key Interest: Survival (Classical Realism) Security (Neo-Realism)  Because there is no guarantor of security at the international level, states pursue survival.  Classical Realists viewed states as inherently aggressive, checked only by other powers  Neo-realists argue that states are merely interested in existence (post-WWII security dilemma furthers this).  Relative gains problems create zero-sum international order where states might forego perceived gains if other states make greater gains. This discourages cooperation.

70. Realism (Neo-Realism)  Debate Applications  Hegemony What international system is most stable: hegemonic, unipolar, bipolar, multipolar? Can troop reduction lead to relative gains for the United States by balancing against more meaningful threats? Does this make the topic bi-directional?  Balance of Power, Balance of Threat, Securitization  Does deterrence apply to counter-insurgency strategy (Afghanistan, Iraq) and asymmetric warfare (counter- terrorism)?

73. The Philosophical Underpinnings of Realism Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War (5th Century BC) “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” “Of gods we trust and of men we know, it is in their nature to rule whenever they can.” “What made war inevitable was the growth of the Athenian power and the fear that this caused in Sparta.” “So far as right and wrong are concerned…there is no difference between the two…”

74. Only the Strong Survive: Realpolitik & the Age of Competition The Great Decision of the time will not be resolved by speeches and majority decisions…but by blood and iron. - Otto von Bismarck 1815-1898

75. Central Assumptions of Realism Anarchy States as the main actors States as unitary actors States as rational actors “Realpolitik”—states should be prepared for war in order to preserve peace

76. . Realism’s Tenets (1 of 2) People are selfish and ethically flawed and compete for self-advantage People have an instinctive lust for power Eradicating this instinct is not possible International politics is a “a war of all against all” The prime obligation of the state is promoting the national interest

77. Realism’s Tenets (2 of 2) Anarchical international system requires states to acquire military power Military power is more important than economics but it is going to change a lot…. Do not trust allies Resist international efforts to control state protection and institute global governance Seek flexible alliances to maintain a balance of power

79. © Milelli EconomiX 2009

81. Variants of realism Classical (traditional) realism: Dating back to Thucydides, Machiavelli, Hobbes Modern protagonists: – Edward H. Carr – Hans J. Morgenthau – John Herz – Arnold Wolfers – Raymond Aron – Robert Gilpin

82. Chanakya Born in 3 B.C. Vishugupta – Kautilya – Chanakya Pulled down Nanda Dynasty King maker – Chandragupta Maurya Responsible for the defeat of Alexander in India Kautilya’s Arthashastra & Chanakya Niti – Documented towards the end of his life

83. Nicolo Machiavelli Major Work: The Prince, 1513 Written as diplomat advising ruler: – Seize all the territory you can – Maintain friendly relations with minor powers but keep greater powers down – Self-help is preferable to alliances – Traditional morality can be abandoned for the state

84. Thomas Hobbes (Classical) Liberalism  Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) Leviathan (1651) Leviathan (1651) – State of Nature: » Humans live in a perfect state of liberty » Humans live in a perfect state of equality » Humans are essentially self-interested » Humans, therefore, are born into a natural state of war with one another…..chaos and conflict with one another…..chaos and conflict » The only law of nature is that of survival of the fittest, each person striving after that which will maximize his/her own person striving after that which will maximize his/her own chances at survival chances at survival » The only real public good that can be conceived of is order…. and so individuals will give their consent to be governed by a force and so individuals will give their consent to be governed by a force with ultimate and sovereign power: an absolute monarch with ultimate and sovereign power: an absolute monarch

85. Thomas Hobbes - Leviathan State of nature is anarchy State of nature is state of war Bellum omnium contra omnes Individual life is nasty, brutish, and short (homo homini lupus) Social contract is a way out domestically Among sovereigns, the state of nature remains

86. Equality Hobbes notes that this equality fosters quarrels due to:  Competition for goods (each having hope of overpowering the other), making people enemies.  Diffidence or lack-of-confidence leading to defensiveness, and  Glory as everyone likes to think highly of themselves, and being equal, each thinks their own honor worth fighting for Competition makes an individual or group invade another’s domain for gain Diffidence encourages invasion for safety Glory encourages invasion for reputation What Iraq War arguments correspond to these causes?

87. Hans Morgenthau Major Work: Politics Among Nations, 1949 “Objective laws” in political science All actors seek to maximize their own power Effective, unemotional policy requires evaluating policy by its effect on power, not other moral standards “Rational Selfish”.

88. Six principles of political realism Politics is governed by objectives laws; IR theory is a rational theory that reflects these laws Politics is an autonomous sphere, independent of economics and personal morality International politics is about national interests though these interests reflect the political and cultural context within which foreign policy is formulated The political ethics is different from the universal moral principles Particular nations cannot impose their national aspirations on other nations Pessimistic knowledge of human nature is in the centre of international politics

89. Robert Gilpin (1984) 3 assumptions regarding political life: a) the essentially conflictual nature of international affairs; anarchy is the rule; order, justice, and morality are the exceptions; the final arbiter of things is political power b) the essence of social reality is the group, Dahrendorf´s "conflict groups“; homo sapiens is a tribal species c) the primacy in all political life of power and security in human motivation

90. Variants of realism. Modern (structural) realism: Dating back to the 1970s Protagonists: – Kenneth Waltz – Robert Jervis – John Mearsheimer – Stephen Walt – Randall Schweller – John Grieco

91. Modern realism Focus on international politics only Focus on structural features of IP History seen as cyclical Repeating historical patterns Anarchy as a cause in itself Focus on theory-building and testing Deductive methodology Microeconomic foundations Focus on international outcomes Not focusing on values at all

92. Schweller/Priess 1997 Four assumptions that all realists share: – humans face each other as members of groups (group loyalty) – international affairs take place in a state of anarchy – the nature of international interaction is essentially conflictual – power is the fundamental feature of international politics

93. Joseph Grieco on realism (1988) Realism encompasses five propositions: – states are major actors in world affairs – environment penalizes pursuing objectives beyond means (unitary and rational actors sensitive to costs) – international anarchy is the principal force shaping the motives and actions of states – states in anarchy are preoccupied with power and security, often fail to cooperate – international institutions affect the prospects for cooperation only marginally

94. John Mearsheimer on realism (1995 and 2001) International system is anarchy States have some offensive capabilities States cannot be sure of other states’ intentions States place value on survival States are rational actors a) fear b) self-help c) relative position

95. Neorealism Accepts much of realism States’ behavior determined by differences in relative power All states have same objectives, but different capacities to realize them Distribution of capacities determines structure of the international system Global level of analysis

96. Neo-realism Major Work: Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, 1979 Anarchy means that any state could be attacked at any time. Therefore, security (the survival of the state) is always at risk. Therefore, states must be concerned with power. – Self-help is best – Alliances to form a balance of power are second-best

97. Liberalism

98. Holds that reason and ethics can overcome international anarchy to create a more orderly and cooperative world Optimistic about the prospects of cooperation Emphasizes establishing stable democracies as a way to reduce conflict Politics is not seen as zero-sum Emphasizes free trade because it helps prevent disputes from escalating into war Stresses the importance of international institutions Also called “idealism”

99. Liberalism (Neo-Liberal Institutionalism) Nature of the International System: Anarchy – For the liberalist, anarchy signifies that there is no supranational authority that is able to enforce agreements. – While liberalism and realism share the assumption of international anarchy, neoliberals criticize realists for underestimating opportunities for cooperation within that system. – Question becomes how to create an international system that encourages cooperation.

100. Liberalism (Neo-Liberal Institutionalism)  Primary Actors: Pluralist System (states at the center, but also corporations, international organizations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), law and protocol)  States cooperate with non-state entities when in their personal interest.  Because there is no international enforcement mechanism to ensure states follow through on agreements, cheating becomes the central concern.  Leads to desire to create “sticky” institutions that hold states to cooperative agreements.

101. Liberalism (Neo-Liberal Institutionalism)  Key Interest: Preferences (Utility determined by the state)  Unlike realism, where states worry about relative gains and would forego cooperation under certain situations, institutionalists seek absolute gains.  Argue that even in situations where partners make relatively greater gains, cooperation on common interests creates “sticky” alliances.  Game Theory describes methods states use to determine when cooperation is in their best interests (prisoner’s dilemma is most common).

102. Liberalism (Neo-Liberal Institutionalism) Debate Applications – Cases/Counterplans: Alliances/Coalition Building United Nations International Law Economic Interests/International Corporations – Problem of changing preferences and shifting alliances (especially true with democratic systems in wartime)

103. . Liberalism Holds that reason and ethics can overcome international anarchy to create a more orderly and cooperative world Optimistic about the prospects of cooperation Emphasizes establishing stable democracies as a way to reduce conflict Politics is not seen as zero-sum Emphasizes free trade because it helps prevent disputes from escalating into war Stresses the importance of international institutions Also called “idealism”

104. Political Ideologies Liberalism (cont.) Jonathan Locke Second Treatise on Government (1689) – State of Nature: » Humans are born into a natural state of liberty » Humans are born into a natural state of equality » Humans are self-interested and struggle to maximize their chances for survival » Humans must acquire (through their own labor) personal property in order to survive; therefore, the right to personal property is an immutable law of nature, as are the rights to life, liberty and health. » All humans are born with the capacity to reason, and therefore, have the capacity to conceive of the law of nature (they will acknowledge every individual’s right to property based on labor) » Any who would violate the law of nature enter into an unnatural state of war with other individuals in society » Peace and order are maintained by a government that enjoys the consent of the governed so long as it upholds the law of nature and respects the natural rights of its citizens

105. Immanuel Kant Major Work: Perpetual Peace, 1795 Reason is key Peace requires: – All states to be representative democracies – International law (not world government) – Free movement of people and free trade

106. Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 105 Three Strands of Liberal Theory Variant of LiberalismLevel of AnalysisDeparture from Realism Liberal InstitutionalismSystem. Retains basic assumption of balance of power theory. Anarchy does not necessarily lead to conflict. Cooperation is possible. Complex Interdependence Theory Sub-state, but not exclusively. Focuses on individuals, firms, NGOs, and organizations within governments as key actors. States are not the only important actors. Actors have diverse interests in international politics. Much of IR has little to do with military security. Democratic Peace Theory State. Focuses on what kind of government the state has. States are not all essentially the same. Liberal (democratic) states can solve disputes without war.

107. The Limitations of Liberalism Realists argue that institutions actually exert minimal influence on state behavior. The prospects for cooperation are more likely in issues of low politics than of high politics. Realists also argue that liberals tend to turn foreign policy into a moral crusade.

108. . Neoliberalism Developed by critics of realism/neorealism Focuses on how IGOs and other nonstate actors promote cooperation and peace Examines how states cooperate with each other and de-emphasize conflict Points to regional integration, especially the European Union

109. The Roles of Power and Principles Realism: an emphasis on power Power-based perspective--survival of the most powerful Emphasizes pragmatic, self-help policy prescriptions ‘Might makes right’ Liberalism: an emphasis on principles  Based on cooperative and ethical standards  Seeks to create policy norms of justice and peace  ‘Right makes right’

110. Constructivism

111. Newest theory of IR Draws on sociology – Max Weber – Emile Durkheim Focuses on power of shared ideas

112. Constructivism Nature of the International System: Socially Constructed/Contingent – Unlike realism and liberalism, whose causal epistemology draws from positivist (scientific) and structuralist (empirical) traditions, constructivism is post-positivist, deconstructing the ontological assumptions of other IR theories. – “Anarchy is what states make of it…” –Alexander Wendt

113. Constructivism Key Actors: Shared Ideas (technically, states are still the key actors, but ideas underlie state paradigms about the international system) – Theory developed as a possible explanation for the failure of dominant theories to predict major international events (e.g. fall of the Soviet Union) – Identities and Interests are constructed by cultural norms and shared philosophies. – While the primary function of constructivism is as a critique of leading IR theories, does it advocate anything (for the purposes of policy debate)?

114. Constructivism Key Interests: Define/Determine Core Ideas; Cooperate to redefine International System – This element of constructivism has been criticized for 1.Being no more than a post-positivist variant of neo- liberalism due to its agreement that social agency shapes state preferences. 2.Not being truly post-modern due to its rational discourse about how ideas can address and solve “external” problems.

115. Constructivism Focus on the impact of ideas World politics is socially constructed Focus on the role of norms as constitutive, constraining, or enabling Power in international relations revolves around actors’ ability to persuade others to accept their ideas

116. Constructivism I Nation-states are not all alike Political culture shapes foreign policy Form of government shapes foreign policy History shapes foreign policy Domestic political trends and debates shape foreign policy

117. Constructivism II States have identity State identity influences the way states interact with each other Examples: – China sensitivity to any policies of other states that threaten its unity and sovereignty – US desire to transform the world

118. . The Rational Action Model A logical attempt to achieve an identifiable goal

119. Logic of Appropriateness Rationalist theories follow “logic of consequences”: – Actors strategically calculate costs and benefits Constructivism predicts behavior based on a “logic of appropriateness”: – Actors behave in accordance with their socially constructed sense of self (identity) Can be hard to differentiate when identity dictates logic of consequences

120. Transnational Advocacy Networks Composed of NGOs in many states Try to enforce norms that influence state behavior by – “Naming and shaming” – Persuading IOs to change their rules – Changing market incentives for MNCs (boycotts) – Using domestic politics to get powerful states to enforce Example: – ending apartheid in South Africa

121. Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. How Free Is Your Country?

122. Comparing the Theories : Human Nature Realism: People are aggressive. Liberalism: People are acquisitive. Constructivism: People are shaped by their culture.

123. Comparing the Theories: Supporting Research Realism: history Liberalism: economics Constructivism: sociology

124. NEO-REALISMNEO-LIBERAL INSTITUTIONALISM CONSTRUCTIVISM NATURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM Anarchy (No international security mechanism) Anarchy (No international mechanism to enforce agreements) Socially Contingent/Socially Constructed KEY ACTOR(S) StatesPlural (States, Corporations, International Organizations, NGOs) Shared Ideas KEY INTEREST(S) Security/SurvivalPreferences (individual utility to the state) Define Core Ideas Cooperate on Shared Interests DEBATE APPLICATIONS Hegemony, Balance of Power, Balance of Threat, Security Construction Alliances, Non- State/Supranational Organizations, Preference Problem Security Kritik/Threat Construction

125. Comparing the Theories : Key Questions Realism – How can states best defend themselves? – What kinds of international systems are most stable? Neo-liberalism – How can states provide global public goods? – How can states maximize their overall utility? Constructivism – How do actors self-identify, and what action is produced by that identity? – How do identities and value systems change?

126. Marxism Holds that IR and domestic politics arise from unequal relationships between economic classes. Branch of socialism, a theory that holds that the more powerful classes oppress and exploit the less powerful by denying them their fair share of the surplus they create.

127. Two Forces Underlying Marxist Theory Qualify Marxism as a Theory of International Security First, the Marxist prediction that capitalism and capitalist markets will distribute wealth and income unequally will be a constant source of conflict Second, Marxism, viewed as a political ideology, has mobilized the populations around the globe under European imperial rule to revolt and create their own states – Marxism as an ideology is still strong, notably once again justifying the centralization of political and economic power: e.g. Venezuela and Cuba and to a lesser extent in Bolivia, Ecuador – Many critics of globalization also rely on Marxist ideology to justify their opposition to global capitalistic markets and corporate power

128. What Are Key Concepts of Marxism As a Theory of International Conflict and Security? Realists and Liberal Institutionalists identify the state as the principal actor in international relations and global politics Liberal theorists identify the individual as the principal actor and source of political and economic legitimacy of state and markets systems But Marxism identifies the creation of classes as the principal actor in international relations

129. Marxism and Identity Politics Marxism is not able to explain – Why the peoples of the developing world created their own states instead of joining a global socialist order – Why the Soviet Union was destroyed by The demand of its East European satellites for national self- determination The demand of Russian elites to abandon a socialist system that impoverished the Soviet Union The demand of the peoples of the Soviet Republics for self- determination and their own state

130. FOREIGN POLICY

131. What is foreign policy? Foreign policy is defined as the diplomatic policy of a nation in its interactions with other nations, but there are many aspects to a nation’s foreign policy, and many specific terms used.

132. What is meant by the term foreign policy? Foreign policy consists of strategies chosen by the state to safeguard its national interests and to achieve its goals in international relations. States must interact with other countries as well as non-state actors.

133. Why does a nation-state develop a foreign policy ? 1) To protect its territory U.S. – Mexico Border Fence Demilitarized Zone (Korea) Cyprus – UN Green Line

134. Why does a nation-state develop a foreign policy ? 2) To ensure the well being of the people in a nation state.

135. Why does a nation-state develop a foreign policy ? 3) To maintain the nation state’s sphere of influence through Hard Power and Soft Power. In International Relations, sphere of influence is an area or region over which a state or organization has significant cultural, economic, military, or political influence.

136. Foreign policies are designed by the government through high-level decision making processes Foreign policies are designed by the government through high-level decision making processes Usually, creating foreign policy is the job of the head of government and the foreign minister (or equivalent) Usually, creating foreign policy is the job of the head of government and the foreign minister (or equivalent) In some countries the legislature also has considerable oversight In some countries the legislature also has considerable oversight Who develops foreign policy for the state?

137. Sphere of Influence: Hard Power Hard Power: refers to national power that comes from military strength or economic sanctions.

138. Deterrence Deterrence is the effort by one actor to persuade another actor to refrain from some action by convincing the opponent that the costs will exceed the rewards of the act. Deterrence, in order to be successful, must meet two conditions: – The capabilities to complete the threat must be present, and – The will, or intent, or resolve, must be present. These two elements make the deterrent credible

139. India-Pakistan deterrence India : Agni 3 : 3000 km. Pakistan : Shaheen : 2000 km.

141. Sphere of Influence: Soft Power Soft Power: refers to power that comes from economic or cultural means; allows nations to exert their influence without using military means. Examples include: Trade Agreements & Sanctions, Foreign Aid, Diplomacy, Cultural Exchanges

142. The state is the primary actor of foreign policy Nation State: a sovereign territorial unit populated by people who share a common history, culture and language.

143. Secondary Actors Non-State Actors: represent interests and exert influence on issues but do not exhibit the distinguishing state characteristics of legal sovereignty and control of territory and people.

144. CGEOPOLgelassic geopolitics Three ideas State in constant evolution Power based on masses: territories, natural resources and population War as a regulation mechanism

145. Geopolitics

146. Alfred T Mahan Economical and financial approach of conflict Control of the sea Halford J Mackinder A new vision of the planet The role of techniques Karl Haushofer Lebensraum Germany-Japan Fighting maritime power

147. Mackinder’s Heartland Theory: “Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island Who rules the World Island commands the world”

148. Geopolitical World Order Temporary periods of stability in how politics are conducted at the global scale. bi-polar-after WW II the U.S. & U.S.S.R. multi-polar-many major powers unilateralism-one state (U.S.) acting alone-which creates resentment and hostility. Will individual states remain the dominant actors in a future geopolitical world order?

150. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

152. Goals of Foreign Policy National Security Free and Open International Trade Promoting Democracy World Peace Concern For Human Rights

153. National Security Protecting the nation and its borders from foreign invaders It includes policies about: – Arms control – Terrorism – Weapons of mass destruction National Security is the most important goal of the U.S.

154. Free and Open International Trade We need to maintain free trade with other countries in order to: – Employ Americans – Obtain natural resources – Maintain a peaceful relationship with other countries

155. Promoting Democracy We have encouraged and helped other nations form democratic political systems because: – We believe the democracy is the freest and best political system in the world – Having other countries that are democratic will reduce the chances of armed conflict

156. World Peace If other nations are at peace, then the U.S. has less of a chance of being drawn into a conflict Our own national security depends on our ability to maintain peaceful relations with other nations

157. Concern For Human Rights We encourage basic human rights for all citizens of the world and ensure that all people are treated with dignity and respect We have done this by providing food, medical supplies, and disaster relief This foreign aid helps support developing nations, promotes our friendship, and provides political stability

158. Tools of Foreign Policy The methods that the U.S. uses to carry out its foreign policy goals It includes: – Military Force – Alliances – Diplomacy – Foreign Aid – Trade Measures – Intelligence

159. Military Used to defend against foreign aggressors Used to discourage aggression

161. Alliances A group of nations that come together to promote: – Peace – Economic relationships NAFTA – Security NATO

162. Diplomacy Communication and negotiation between nations that may help resolve disagreements This can often lead to treaties or alliances

163. Foreign Aid Economic Aid – Giving loans or grants – Help developing countries develop an infrastructure (roads, power, water) – Help rebuild after a war or natural disaster Humanitarian Aid – Give food, shelter, and clothing after a disaster – Offer help for political prisoners and refugees – Provide medicine and training for health care

164. Trade Measures Sanctions – – A formal type of punishment created by your country’s government – You stop providing another country with aid, food, medicine, trade, etc. Embargos - – A formal type of economic sanction created by your country’s government – Formally prohibits the businesses from a country from trading with a particular nation

165. Trade Measures Boycotts – – These are not started by the government – Citizens of a nation informally decide to stop buying goods from another country

166. Intelligence The U.S. uses information gathered from satellites, news, ambassadors, spies, etc. to help protect our citizens and infrastructure

167. Propaganda One-sided information used by the government with the purpose of persuading its citizens or the citizens of another nation

168. CHINA

170. Population : 1.347.350.000 inh. 19.25% World population. One child policy.

171. Growth has been re-forecasted at 7.5% for 2012

172. How China’s Soft Power Strategy Emerges Domestic changes in China lead to pressure for a more proactive foreign policy Chinese leadership more engaged with the world Failure of more aggressive mid-1990s policies Impact of Asian financial crisis and beginning of American soft power decline

173. Components of Chinese Strategy Leverage Rhetoric on Cooperation/Noninterference Pragmatism Born-again multilateralist Focus on countries where US bilateral relationship is faltering; outreach to developing nations China as a model for developing nations

174. Chinese Tools of Influence More sophisticated development assistance Better public diplomacy –media, informal summitry, visitor programming, Chinese Peace Corps More skilled formal diplomacy Outreach to ethnic Chinese in SE Asia Promotion of Chinese language and culture studies Promotion of China’s future potential for outward investment Outmigration to northern SE Asia

175. Decline of US soft power in SE Asia Financial crisis blowback Focus on counterterrorism The war in Iraq Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo: US no longer viewed as lawful actor Decline of multilateralism Decrease in public diplomacy resources Changing regional economic models Visa policies Decline of US corporate brand appeal

176. Potential Chinese goals Stability on the perimeter Economic development and trade Perceptions of China as benign actor Control of waterways? Reducing Taiwan’s and Japan’s influence Access to resources A Chinese Monroe Doctrine?

177. Matrices of Chinese Success Perceptions of China as benign/ Perceptions of Chinese economic growth Public opinion polling Interest in Chinese language and culture Reception of Chinese elites Interest in China’s model of development Perceptions of SE Asian Chinese Access to resources Taiwan increasingly excluded China using influence to persuade

178. Impact on the region and on US interests Positive: China becomes regional leader by mediating disputes Positive: China takes lead on nontraditional transnational issues Positive: China prods regional free trade Negative: China exporting its labor and environmental practices Negative: Chinese aid undermining tying of aid to better governance, and US influence over authoritarian nations: Weakens US promotion of democratization and good governance Negative: China could eventually use influence to push back at American relationships in SE Asia Negative: Potential structures in the region exclude US

179. Potential US strategies Blowback against China? US still enjoys major assets One officer per embassy focuses only on Chinese activities on the ground Better public diplomacy Rethinking visa policies and sanctions Using the whole US bench Leveraging US values

180. Nature and scope of China’s recent economic engagement with Africa Economic transactions provide the most powerful evidence of China’s increasing interaction with the continent. The impact of China on Africa operates mainly through four main channels: trade; foreign direct investment; foreign aid; and migration.

181. Context: China’s roles in Africa Why China? New multi-polar international order Second largest national economy; fastest growing 10%/year in last 30 years Financial stability during global financial crisis; US, EU debt Superpower with many vulnerabilities In Africa: growing investments Oil, gas, natural resources, minerals [climate relevant] Construction industry (harbours, roads) [climate relevant] ICT (fiber-optics backbones), mobile networks Trade and retail, even agriculture Strengthening diplomatic-political ties; BRICS; emergence of global South

182. Questions re China in Africa China as new colonialist empire; “predator” state and businesses? Syphoning off resources; support corrupt authoritarian governments? Growing use of fossil fuels (from Africa) Insensitive to climate change and environmental and social concerns? Or Partnership, mutual benefits in business Friendly support and state aid Non-interference in politics Sustainability, mitigating climate change Perceptions, agenda, framing? → Media

183. OIL

185. Oil dominates the profile of Africa’s exports to China (around 70%) China’s dependence on imported oil rose to 47% of annual demand, an increase of 4.1 percent since 2005 - expected to rise to around 60% by 2020

186. Constraints on Chinese Economic Power US will remain much richer on per capita basis: Chinese per capita income from 7% of US per capita income today to 54% in 2050. China’s economic growth rate will slow. Biggest reason: demographics – Today: 70% of Chinese of working age – support 30% who are young or old

187. Chinese Strategic Problems Surrounded by 14 countries who need reassurance Depends on oil and other resources imported along sea lanes controlled by US Navy Flashpoints: Taiwan, North Korea, South China Sea, disputed border with India US military has technological lead and capacity to increase spending

188. Tensions China-Japan *September 2010 : incident in archipel of Senkaku ( Diaoyu in chinese). *Strategic position in case of conflict with Taiwan and located on a vital naval route for China oil supply. *Possible fields of oil around the islands.

190. China-Taiwan relations

192. Chinese Military Strategy Develop “blue water” navy Missile and rocket technology Cyber and space warfare Increase domestic production capacity in military goods Reduce size of ground forces while improving quality

193. Chinese Military in the 21 st Century  Strategic Issues  Is China’s rise peaceful?  Zbigniew Brzezinski China’s rise shall be peaceful. China’s leaders are rationale, pragmatic; They care about growth, people’s livelihood, and own rule.  John Mearsheimer China is no difference from USA; China shall strive for regional hegemony; China’s rise cannot be friction-free.

194. China’s “Monroe Doctrine” “A much more powerful China can also be expected to try to push the United States out of the Pacific-Asia region, much the way the United States pushed the European great powers out of the Western Hemisphere in the nineteenth century. We should expect China to come up with its own version of the Monroe Doctrine.”

196. Carte des principaux ports de guerre de la marine chinoise. (DoD) http://www.apl-chine.com/aplmarine/apl_chine_marine.html Source: the PLAN, a modern navy with chinese perspective, august 2009, published by the Office of Naval Intelligence

197. http://orientalreview.org/2010/10/01/is-guam-ready-to-accept-the-us-military-bases-from-okinawa/

198. Chinese Intentions “Peaceful rise” or “Peaceful development” “China will never seek hegemony.”

200. Reasons to think China’s Rise might be peaceful China has benefitted from existing international order International order built upon institutions that are “easy to join, hard to overturn” (G. John Ikenberry) China aware that expansionist policies will produce balancing coalition among neighbors who can rely upon US for support

201. Reasons to think China’s rise might not be peaceful China might wish to change international order created and controlled by West China might not be trusted by West because it is not democracy Need for raw materials leads to conflict over resources, sea lanes, etc. Internal instability leads to nationalist mobilization

202. Political scientist John Mearsheimer “China cannot rise peacefully. “ “… I am not arguing that Chinese behavior alone will drive the security competition that lies ahead. The United States is also likely to behave in aggressive ways …”

203. Assessing Power Transition Theory Will China overtake the United States in national power? Will China seek to overturn the existing international or regional order? Can a US-China “cold war” be averted?

204. Will US seek to “contain” China? US does not have ability to contain China US depends on China for goods and finance US corporations heavily invested in China US needs Chinese cooperation on many issues Comparisons to Soviet Union: no ideological challenge, no serious military challenge, far more interdependent (80,000 Chinese students in US)

205. Political changes Wen Jia Bao Xi Jin Ping Li Ke Qiang Hu Jin Tao Bo Xi Lai

206. Wukan Small town 12000 inh. Province : Gang Dong. Free elections. Universal suffrage.

207. Questions 1.Do You think that a democratic process could be initiated in the next 2 years ? Why ? 2.What will be the consequences on China’s International Relations ?

208. Conclusions Is US-China conflict inevitable? Is US-China conflict possible? Is US-China conflict avoidable? Structure versus choice Unpredictability of future

209. INDIA

211. India: Officially called the Republic of India Population of 1.210.193.422 h. (2011) 1950 = 357.500.000 h. 2050 = 1.755.200.000 h. Coast Line of 7500 kms Federal Constitutional Republic with a Parliamentary Democracy 28 States and 7 Union Territories Introduction

212. Economy *GNP/inhabitant : 2800 U.S$ (2008). *GNP expansion : 10.4 % (2010). *Public debt (in % of GNP) : 60.1 % (2009) *Principal sectors : *IT/BPO. *Pharmaceuticals. *Car industries. *Textile.

213. Oil Route

216. Trans-Burma dual pipelines construction begin soon

217. Partition 1947

219. India/China territories disputes

221. Water Geopolitics

222. SCENARIO(S)

223. The main danger stays a conflict between China and India. Today, the relations are based on a « friendly vigilance ».. Both countries are trying to show themselves as the leader in Asia and China is ahead.. The settlement of the territorial disputes have not been solved. But, the hypothesis of such a conflict is really extreme, and if so, should become a restricted conflict.

224. The second danger is a conflict between India and Pakistan. There is a statu quo today, but till when ? Pakistan is a strategic location between India and Central Asia, which is a principal axis for the indian diplomacy and, mainly, oil supply. In the case of military conflict, what will be the roles of China and USA ?

225. Issues for the Future How will the world of 2050 differ from the world of today? Terrorism Globalization Unipolarity Gaps in Wealth The Spread of Democracy The Demise of the Sovereign State

226. The Future? What factors will be most important? Emerging new powers A global aging phenomenon Halting democratization A spreading radical Islamic ideology A potential for catastrophic terrorism A proliferation of weapons of mass destruction Increased pressures on international institutions

227. Copy New World Order, or New World Disorder? Change is constant Importance of history Integration and disintegration Two races – Between knowledge and oblivion – Between states’ ability to cooperatively act in concert and their historic tendency to compete and fight