1. Off-road Transportation Electrification Marshall Miller and Aspen Environmental Group IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

2. Study Purpose Estimate total electricity demand for off- road vehicles and applications from 2015 – 2025 Produce Low, Medium, and High scenarios for electricity usage for each category for years 2015-2025 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

3. Off-Road Categories Truck Stop Electrification (TSE) Trailer Refrigeration Units (TRUs) Industrial Forklifts Port Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE) Airport Ground Support Equipment (GSE) Utility Work Trucks Shore Power IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

4. Methodology Inputs Present fleet stock (# vehicles/applications) – Separate category for each vehicle type (e.g. small/large bucket trucks, forklift classes) Estimates of stock growth through 2025 Estimates of vehicle/application activity (VMT or hours) and fuel economy (mi/kWh, kWh/hour) Estimates of % of electrified vehicles/applications in fleet – Generally assume linear increase from 2015 to 2025 – Data from current reports, recent activity, and regulations – Discussions with stakeholders IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

5. Scenarios: Low, Medium, High (Range of Estimates) Mostly determined by % adoption of electrification (dominates range) Use data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Moody's Analytics (CA counties) for projected economic growth from 2015 – 2025 to project Low, Medium, and High scenarios stock growth Low – Close to lower bound, extrapolate from 2015 with present regulation Medium – Best estimate and roughly in middle of Low and High High – Aggressive assumptions IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

6. Truck Stop Electrification At truck stops, trucks plug in rather than run engine for hotel loads (A/C, radio, heating, etc.) Presently 224 electrified spaces (DOE Alt Fuels Database 1 ) 9282 total spaces (SCE inventory) Average load/space = 1.39 kW from CA Transportation Electrification Assessment (CalTEA 2 ) 1 http://www.afdc.energy.gov/tse_locator 2 California Transportation Electrification Assessment Phase 1: Final Report, ICF International, Updated September 2014 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

7. Truck Stop Electrification Scenarios Number of electrified spaces – Low: no increase – Medium: 20% spaces by 2025 (~1850) – High: 40% spaces by 2025 (~3700) Capacity factor – Low: increase from 0.28 to 0.5 by 2025 – Medium: 0.6 by 2025 – High: 0.6 by 2025 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

8. Trailer Refrigeration Units (TRUs) TRUs can be designed for plug-in electric standby at truck stops CARB TRU ISOR emissions database Assume trucks with eTRUs can plug-in 30% of operating time 4 classes 25 hp, OOS (> 25 hp) Power usage (from CalTEA and ARB): < 11 hp:2.3 kW 11-25 hp: 6 kW > 25 hp:10 kW IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

9. TRU Scenarios TRU type (hp) < 1111 - 25> 25OOS Scenario% eTRUs by 2025 Low11 0 Medium4050250 High50605020 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

10. Forklifts Forklifts can be electric (class 1-3) or ICE (class 4 and 5) ITA Market Intelligence report sales data 3 – Sales by class yield current stock – Past sales yield present stock and % of electric vs ICE forklifts Electricity usage per year (CalTEA) – Class 1,2 ( < 120 hp): 18.3 kWh – Class 1,2 ( > 120 hp): 52.8 kWh – Class 3: 5.3 kWh 3 http://www.indtrk.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/US-Factory- Shipments-Through-2012.pdf IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

11. Industrial Forklifts Scenarios Low – Assume present ratio of elec/ICE (1.22) holds for future and simply use projected sales Medium – Assume ratio of elec/ICE increases such that 15% of projected class 4,5 forklifts are elec by 2025 High – Assume ratio of elec/ICE increases such that 25% of projected class 4,5 forklifts are elec by 2025 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

12. Port Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE) Yard tractors, forklifts, RTG Cranes ARB CHE emissions database for stock and activity (hours) Electrical energy usage (Tiax 2012 report 4 ) – Tractors: 24 kW – Forklifts: 5.8 kW – Cranes: 52 kW 4 “Roadmap to Electrify Goods Movement Subsystems for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach,” Consultant Report by TIAX LLC for the Ports of LA and LB, February, 2012. IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

13. Port CHE Scenarios Very little electrified equipment currently IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) % Electrified by 2025 ScenarioTractorsForkliftsRTG Cranes Low10 5 Medium20 10 High40 20

14. Airport Ground Support Equipment (GSE) Baggage tug, Belt Loader, Cargo Tractor, Forklift, A/C Tug, Passenger stand, etc. US Stock (Airport Cooperative Research Program GSE inventory estimate 6 ) CA stock (FAA enplanement data – roughly 11% of US 7 ) kWh/yr for vehicles (LAX Extremely Low Emission Technology GSE Feasibility Study Report 8 ) 6 ACRP Report 78: Airport Ground Support Equipment (GSE): Emission Reduction Strategies, Inventory, and Tutorial (2012) 7 http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/ 8 “Extremely Low Emission Technology ground Support Equipment Feasibility Study Report – Updated”, CDM Smith. Prepared for the Los Angeles World Airports, February 2015 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

15. Airport GSE Scenarios Ontario, San Jose airports significant electrification, ~37% of all GSE electrified in 2013 at LAX IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) Scenario20152025 Low20%25% Medium20%35% High20%45%

16. Utility Work Truck Scenarios Utility bucket trucks maintain and service worksites (PG&E, SCE, SMUD, SEMPRA) In 2014 utilities made pledges buy significant number of plug-in vehicles for their fleets (PG&E led coalition) PG&E plans to electrify 100% of work trucks by 2025 Scenario electrification in 2025: – Low: 36/44% (37’/ 55’) of trucks electrified – Medium: 52/64% (37’/ 55’) of trucks electrified – High: 62/69% (37’/ 55’) of trucks electrified IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

17. Utility Work Trucks Data Small (37’) and Large (55’) bucket trucks with battery pack to supply power at worksite (Edison Electric Institute, 2014) IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) Truck Size 37’55’ Electricity used (kWh/day) 58 Operating days / year 260

18. Shore Power Container, Cruise, Reefer, and Tanker ships Ship visits – Tanker, container ships (US Department of Transportation Maritime Administration) – Cruise, reefer (CEC data) At-Berth Regulation – Shore power 50% (2014), 70% (2017), 80% (2020), higher for ports that receive Prop 1b funding Scenarios by 2025 – Low: 80%, Medium: 85%, High: 90% IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

19. Berth Times, Electrical Load, Energy Usage Ship typeBerth time (hours) Electrical Load (MW) Total Energy per visit (MWh) Container471.256.4 Reefer600.636 Passenger155.481 Tanker430.730.1 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) Data from the Port of Long Beach Emissions Inventory

20. Total Off-Road Electricity Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

21. Total Avoided Petroleum Usage from Year 2015 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

22. Thank You IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

23. Methodology Calculations Vehicles Electricity usage = # veh e * VMT / (mi/kWh) Applications (Truck stops, shore power, etc.) – Electricity usage = # ship berths/truck stops * hours usage (elec) * (kWh/hr) Some cases data includes total energy usage (e.g. airport GSE) Inputs vary with year – Stock – % electrified – Fuel economy/usage, activity held constant IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

24. Truck Stop Electricity Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

25. TRU Electricity Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

26. Industrial Forklift Electricity Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

27. Port CHE Electricity Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

28. Airport GSE Electricity Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

29. Utility Work Truck Electricity Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

30. Shore Power Electricity Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)