1. THE CRITICAL ELECTIONS MODEL (a.k.a., When Elections Really Matter!) Explaining Political Realignmen ts

2. Critical Elections Definition: A critical (or “realigning”) election is one that results in a significant and lasting shift in party loyalty among voters and party control of the political system. Best Examples: 1) 1860 2) 1932

3. 1860 Democrats had won 6 of the previous 8 presidential elections (1828-56). But in 1860, the party split over the issue of slavery in the territories. This gave rise to the modern Republican party.

4. 1860 Republicans controlled the White House and both houses of the Congress for the next 14 years. Major legislative accomplishments: - Reconstruction Acts - 13 th, 14 th & 15 th Amendments.

5. 1860 Democrats would win just 3 of the next 18 presidential elections. And control both houses of Congress at the same time for just 8 of the next 72 years.

6. 1932 Then came the Great Depression. By the 1932 election, the Republicans had controlled the White House and both houses of Congress for 12 years.

7. 1932 Hoover (R) v. FDR (D) FDR carried 42 of the 48 states. Democrats won 313/435 seats in the House (72%). And 59 of 96 seats in the Senate (62%).

8. 1932 Democrats would control the White House and both houses of Congress for the next 14 years. Major legislative accomplishments: - New Deal jobs programs - Social Security, Min. Wage, etc.

9. Critical Elections 5 Requirements: 1) The election is dominated by a clearly identifiable issue of national importance. 2) The two parties must take opposing positions on how to handle the issue.

10. Critical Elections 3) The election must result in unified* government. *a single party has control of: 1) the White House 2) the House of Reps 3) the Senate. as opposed to divided government when those three pieces are split between the two parties in some fashion. D R R

11. Critical Elections 4) The new majority party must legislate significant policy changes. 5) The voters must ratify the policy choices made by the majority party by leaving it in power for at least a decade.

12. Critical Elections Realigning: Maintaining: Deviating: Reinstating: 1932 ’36, ’40, ’44, ’48 ’52, ’56 ’60