1. Spatial distribution of mature and old forest Dave Daust, Feb 25

2. Mega-project Phase I  Part 1: Uncertainty related to pattern Study 1 Study 1 Study 2 Study 2  Part 2: Feasibility and cost of Phase II Phase II: Measuring the distribution of mature and old forest

3. Uncertainty related to pattern

4. Outline 1. Landscape pattern 101 2. Current knowledge 3. The influence of harvest pattern on old forest pattern 4. The value of pattern for different species 5. Summary and recommendations

5. inter-patch distance habitat patch unsuitable habitat Landscape pattern 101

6. Habitat loss

7. How useful is habitat

8. Territories and dispersal

9. Current knowledge  Objective: attain a natural landscape pattern Risk % of natural patch-size class

10. The influence of harvest pattern on old forest pattern: a comparison with natural

11. Simulation Variables  Disturbance rate Low  32% old Low  32% old High  11% old High  11% old  Disturbance pattern Natural Natural 80 ha blocks ± greenup rules 80 ha blocks ± greenup rules Biodiversity guidebook blocks ± greenup rules Biodiversity guidebook blocks ± greenup rules

12. 32% old; natural disturbance32% old; guidebook logging Old forest

13. 11% old; natural disturbance11% old; guidebook logging Old forest

14. Old forest area greatly influences patch size distribution Natural Disturbance

15. Disturbance type influences patch size distribution Guidebook harvesting with greenup rulesNatural disturbance

16. Conclusions  Guidebook (“Natural”) harvesting patterns will not create natural old forest patterns  Amount of old forest had the biggest influence on pattern  Guidebook harvesting with greenup rules is the closest

17. The value of pattern for different species: a summary of the Nadina Study

18. Simulation Methods  Disturbance Mountain pine beetle Mountain pine beetle Harvesting Harvesting Artificial landscapes Artificial landscapes  Harvest pattern 80 ha blocks 80 ha blocks Large, variably-sized blocks Large, variably-sized blocks  Habitat analysis for virtual animals Territories Territories Connectivity Connectivity

19. Virtual animals  Habitat affinity  Territory size and dispersal range  Territory plasticity (expansion)

20. Results Variable “Population” response Old forest area Cutblock size - Old forest patch size on artificial landscape

21. Artificial landscapes

22. Conclusions  Harvesting pattern does not influence old forest habitat use (under the range of conditions evaluated).  Old forest pattern has some potential to influence habitat use

23. Summary  The current harvest pattern indicator is not appropriate because Guidebook harvesting patterns do not create natural old forest patterns Guidebook harvesting patterns do not create natural old forest patterns Harvesting patterns do not influence old forest habitat use Harvesting patterns do not influence old forest habitat use  Old forest pattern has some potential to influence habitat use  Habitat amount influences habitat use

24. Recommendations  Ignore pattern and rely on habitat amount or  Use a pattern indicator that assesses old forest (and other seral stages) directly  Continue to implement “guidebook” harvesting patterns

25. Feasibility and cost of measuring the distribution of mature and old forest Dave Daust, Feb 25

26. Why measure old forest? Recall past study  amount amount of different old forest ecosystems (ecosystem representation)

27. Different ecosystems  Climate  Topography  Local soil conditions  Disturbance  Succession Site series Seral stages Chance

28. Benefit/cost analysis TEM Benefit = accuracy

29. Benefit/cost analysis Variant TEM Benefit = accuracy

30. Benefit/cost analysis PEM Variant VRI TEM Benefit = accuracy

31. Benefit/cost analysis PEM Updated VRI Variant VRI TEM Benefit = accuracy

32. Benefit/cost analysis PEM Updated VRI Variant VRI TEM Cost = delay + $ for analysisBenefit = accuracy $ $ $ $ now > 2 yr $ > 5 yr ? never ?

33. Methods  Get the data  Mess with it  Do the analysis  And write report

34. Recommendation  Use existing VRI (best benefit/cost ratio)

36. Methods TaskDays Obtain spatial data for Babine Watershed - Clean up data and create a single “forest” coverage (map) - Define forested land, create seral stages and create site classes 0.5 Calculate seral stage distribution of each Variant- site combination 0.5 Prepare report 0.5 Prepare presentation and present to BWMT 0.5