1. Slide 1 SPIN 23 February 2006 Norman Fenton Agena Ltd and Queen Mary University of London Improved Software Defect Prediction

2. Slide 2 delivery Pre-release testing Post-release operation Using fault data to predict reliability

3. Slide 3 Pre-release vs post-release faults? 0 0 Post-release faults 10 20 30 4080120160 Pre-release faults ?

4. Slide 4 Pre-release vs post-release faults: actual Post-release faults 0 10 20 30 04080120160 Pre-release faults

5. Slide 5 Software metrics….?

6. Slide 6 Regression models….?

7. Slide 7 Solution: causal models (risk maps)

8. Slide 8 What’s special about this approach? Structured Visual Robust

9. Slide 9 The specific problem for Philips time Defects found predicted actual

10. Slide 10 Background to work with Philips Fixed Risk Map (AID) 2000 MODIST Agena Risk 200120032002 2004 Reliability models

11. Slide 11 Projects in the trial (actual number of projects shown in brackets)

12. Slide 12 Factors used at Philips Existing code base… Complexity and management of new requirements... Development, testing, rework, process … Overall project management …

13. Slide 13 Actual versus predicted defects Correlation coefficient 95%

14. Slide 14 Validation Summary (Philips’ words) “Bayesian Network approach is innovative and one of the most promising techniques for predicting defects in software projects” “Our evaluation showed excellent results for project sizes between 10 and 90 KLOC” “Initially, projects outside this range were not within the scope of the default model so predictions were less accurate, but accuracy was significantly improved after standard model tailoring” “AgenaRisk is a valuable tool as is”

15. Slide 15 Specific benefits Accurate predictions of defects at different phases Know when to stop testing Identify where to allocate testing Minimise the cost of rework Highlight areas for improvement Use out of the box now if you have no data Approach fully customisable Models arbitrary project life-cycles

16. Slide 16 Summary Risk maps – the way forward Validation results excellent

17. Slide 17 …And You can use the technology NOW www.agenarisk.com