1. Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) OECD’s International Window on Education and Learning David Istance Banff, October 2011

2. EDUCATION AT OECD

3. Education at OECD The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development set up in early 1960s, education always on the agenda – for different reasons Late 1960s – creation of CERI and education integrated into ‘human policies’ Directorate with employment and social policy (not science and technology) 2002, separate Directorate for Education

4. Different Sections, Differing Focus Education and training policy Statistics and indicators Research and innovation Management of resources –Educational buildings, HE management Non-member countries

5. EDU themes Early Childhood Schooling Transitions beyond initial education Higher education Lifelong learning and adults Outcomes, benefits and returns Equity and equality of opportunity Innovation and knowledge management

6. The main trend – development of international comparative data Thirst for comparisons Reflection - and motor - of globalisation of education What can’t be measured is less important? (Lifelong learning) But international comparisons also offer powerful positive arguments

7. Some recent titles Education at a Glance, annual PISA 2006 main and thematic reports, PISA 2009 6 volumes Starting Strong Teachers Matter Improving School Leadership Are the New Millennium Learners Making the Grade? Connected Minds Education for Jobs Tertiary Education for the Knowledge Society Higher Education to 2030 Recognising Non-formal and Informal Learning Improving Health and Social Cohesion through Education No More Failures Teacher Education for Diversity Evidence in Education: Linking Research to Policy The Nature of Learning: Using Research to Inspire Practice Trends Shaping Education 2010

8. SOME KEY TRENDS

9. Many more people with higher education Percentage of population with higher education, in age groups 25 ‑ 34 and 55 ‑ 64

10. From “bottom-heavy” to “top-heavy” age structures Millions per 5-year age group in developed world regions, 1950 and forecast 2050

11. The “old-age dependency ratio” set to double by 2050 Population aged 65 years and over per 100 persons aged 15 ‑ 64 years, 1950, 2000 and 2050

12. The widening gap between richer and poorer regions GDP per capita by region, 1980 ‑ 2008

13. Relative poverty increasing Percentage of people with an income less than 50% of the median income, in the mid ‑ 1980s, mid ‑ 1990s and mid 2000s

14. Marriages and Divorces Annual number of marriages and divorces per 1 000 population, 1970 ‑ 2006

15. Growing access to home computers Households with access to a computer at home (including desktops, portables and handhelds), in 2000, 2005 and 2008

16. Imposing challenges The learning challenge – knowledge and capacity to live in changing 21 st century world The importance of socialisation into shared culture and robust personal values…if anything accentuated in light of trends The resource challenge – for many reasons Lifelong learning – the implementation challenge

17. 3. THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE

18. The OECD Schooling Scenarios 1. INERTIA AND INTERESTS MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO “Bureaucratic School Systems Continue“ Scenario 2. MOST SCHOOLS REMODELLED AS DYNAMIC LEARNING AND SOCIAL CENTRES (“Re-schooling”) "Schools as Focused Learning Organisations“ Scenario "Schools as Core Social Centres“ Scenario 3. SCHOOL SYSTEMS DISBAND OR DISINTEGRATE (“De- schooling”) “Radical Extension of the Learning Market” Scenario “Learning Networks and the Network Society” Scenario “Teacher Exodus and System Meltdown” Scenario Original source: What Schools for the Future?, OECD, 2001

19. Different scenarios, different ages and stages A healthy degree of bureaucracy? The foundations – re-schooling Building on the foundation – re-schooling and de-schooling Initial systems and lifelong learning

20. THANK YOU! david.istance@oecd.org