1. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects European Water Scenarios from the Mediterranean to Central Asia Andrea Tilche European Commission Head of the Unit “Water Cycle and Soil-related aspects” andrea.tilche@cec.eu.int Brussels, 30 th June – 1 st July 2003

2. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Objectives of the workshop  To discuss with the scientific community and various stakeholders on the development of water scenarios as a tool for decision makers for establishing long-term sustainable policies  Scenarios as tools to develop long-term visions and to develop and diffuse awareness  To launch the debate on the state-of-the-art, the existing gaps to fill and the research aspects to be addressed  To stimulate the formation of consortia for presenting projects at the forthcoming second FP6 call

3. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Global Change and Ecosystem: second FP6 call  To be launched on the 3 rd of July  Closure date 9 th of October  Two-stage procedure (first step project outline max 25 pages) for Integrated Projects and Networks of Excellence  Deadline for the second step February/March 2004  Evaluation of the first step based on all evaluation criteria  Water Cycle, three areas for IPs-NoEs: IWRM, Water stress and Scenario development

4. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Water scenarios for Europe and for neighbouring countries (IP)  “The project should be based on the development of medium-long term (25-50 y) model-supported consistent scenarios, based on advanced policy, socio-economic and technological options design strategies. They should blend qualitative and quantitative approaches and combine anticipatory/exploratory ones. An appropriate balance between story-lines, modelling approaches and iterative simulation should lead to transparent, well documented and “rich” scenarios, finding ways to incorporate discontinuities and non-linearities. (cont.)

5. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Water scenarios for Europe and for neighbouring countries (cont’d)  …The output should be shaped in a way to be useful for policy-makers to develop sustainable water policies. The project results should have the ambition to become a reference for future large- scale regional planning. The participation of third countries should cover in particular the areas surrounding the EU and associated candidate countries borders in order to cover the whole geographic Europe – up to the Urals and Caucasus -, and the whole Mediterranean and Black Sea areas. The project will support the EU Water Initiative.”

6. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Other topic areas for IPs or NoEs  Integrated water resource management and transboundary issues  Emphasis to the implications of global change and the development of appropriate adaptation and mitigation techniques, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty, scales issues, conflicts in water use between the various sectors, to the complex dynamics of social and economic systems, and institutional and political frameworks and public participation aspects (governance)  New approaches to water stress  New integrated approaches should consider water resources management and planning, water demand forecasting/control, water savings and economic incentives or policy instruments as well as the development of innovative mitigation technologies and monitoring systems addressing the use and control of alternative water sources  Links with water scenarios  IWRM can facilitate the achievement of medium-long term sustainability objectives  Scenario analysis may help to define sustainable policies for water-stressed regions and to define sustainability objectives for IWRM

7. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Background on Water scenarios  Tool for re-enforcing environmental assessments  EEA  WWA  Several exercises already done:  Some at World scale World Water Vision scenarios UNEP  Some at regional scale EC on six European countries (1996) Plain Bleu for the Mediterranean (1999)  Others on related matters Emissions, global change, environment, policy, energy, etc.  New Europe-wide effort needed

8. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Why new water scenarios? (1)  Recently concluded EC projects (Climate change and water management: managing European water resources in an uncertain future – N.W. Arnell ed., 2001) indicated that:  Water resources in Europe are under increasing pressure in many areas  Climate change has the potential to alter significantly the hydrological resource base  Water managers have access in principle to a wide range of adaptive options  Climate change poses significant challenges to the design and selection of water management options

9. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Why new water scenarios? (2)  The change in frequency of occurrence of extreme events may change the societal response to water management  More efforts are needed to expand our predictions from water quantity to water quality aspects  Decision makers, water managers and stakeholders should always be aware that today’s decisions have impact on the future; multiple scenarios may allow to build a risk-based approach to decision making

10. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Organisation of the workshop  Principles and background elements for water scenarios  Modelling and monitoring tools  Sectoral perspectives  Regional perspectives  Discussion sessions:  Open research questions and current gaps  Wrap-up and links with other water priorities for IPs/NoEs for the second call of FP6  Brokerage space

11. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Scenarios in support to the EU Water Initiative  The EU Water Initiative: the European action to reach the MDGs and the Johannesburg targets  Focus on water supply and sanitation and on integrated water resources management (transboundary issues)  Regional components (Africa, EECCA, Mediterranean, South America) and horizontal components (finance and research)  Scenarios needed for orienting development aids

12. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Presenting an IP or NoE: lessons from the first call  Very strong competition for the budget among different topic areas  Only one winner per topic area, difficult to cover all the topic areas due to budget limitation  Evaluators feel strongly the responsibility of giving high marks only to projects that show to be worth to receive very consistent grants  Important to convince the panels of the novelty and the ambitiousness of the proposal, well based on the knowledge of the on-going national, European and international activities  Very large budgets need to be very well justified – good value for money

13. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Develop sustainable futures Every epoch is an epoch of transition. We know only one thing about the future or, rather, about the futures: it will not look like the present. Jorge Luis Borges

14. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Develop sustainable futures  Our responsibility  Give stakeholders the instruments to understand and forecast the consequences of political choices  Reduce the asymmetry of knowledge among the stakeholders and the policy makers  Contribute to build a democratic knowledge-based society  Do not undermine the ability of future generations to satisfy their own needs

15. E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems - Water cycle and Soil-related aspects Develop sustainable futures The future generations? What have they done for us? Bernard Shaw