1. IRSPM Prague, Czech Republic 9-12 TH April 2013 Horizon scanning, scenario planning and sense making with an LRF Professor Joyce Liddle Head of the Centre for Strategy & Leadership, TBS & Pete Murphy, NTU

2. Structure of presentation Background/context/drivers of the research Key concerns Impact Agenda Process, content and design Reflections

3. Cleveland Local Resilience Forum LRF - sub-regional body overseeing emergency planning and civil contingencies across four unitary local authority boundaries, with coterminous Police and Fire and Rescue Services. Consists of senior officials representing all Category 1 Responders, as defined under the Civil Contingencies Act, together with major and key partners in for example, Public Health and the Voluntary Sector. Chaired by the Chief Constable of Police and the secretariat is provided by the Chief Emergency Planning Officer of the Emergency Planning Unit of one of the largest local authorities represented. Meets quarterly

4. Main Drivers 2010-UK Coalition Government Austerity and budget cuts Massive social & welfare reforms Abolition of Regional architecture (and therefore a source of regional advice on Resilience and Emergency Planning) Recognition of numerous potential ‘unintended consequences’ due to shifting policy agenda (social unrest, riots, theft, poverty, etc) Need to ‘sense make’ impacts of policy shifts on strategic and operational work of emergency services. New Police and Crime Commissioner (elections took place in November 2012)

5. Chair of the CLRF had been an MBA student at the University He wanted to develop a long term relationship with the University But (and this is important) there was limited funding to support it Initially the idea was to develop a ‘model’ of LRF- University ‘tool-kit’ that could be offered to the other LRF s across England- frankly the LRF wanted to generate some funds to support their own work LACK OF CAPACITY The Regional Person responsible for almost all of the Northern regions of England was keen-what could fill the gap with the abolition of Government Offices?

6. Key concerns How to Sense Make, Strategise and do Horizon Scanning within shrinking resource base? Identify what the shifting policy agenda might mean for Emergency services and the LRF Develop informal solutions to what had been formal arrangements Augment capacity Think through some of the potential social impacts arising from : Welfare reforms Benefit cuts, eg housing Service reductions Demise of partnerships Withdrawal of public sector inputs into existing provision

7. Basis of the relationship between LRF and the University Establish dialogue Link existing research to LRF concerns Exchange information between university knowledge/research and world of practice Facilitate new research opportunities Benchmark good practice nationally/internationall y Stimulate collaborative relationships and ‘add value’ to existing relationships Bid for joint research funding Shape and inform the agenda within Emergency Services Identify existing literature in this field of ‘leading emergency services’

8. Impact Agenda Impact Agenda HEFCE ESRC-and all research councils REF-Impact LARCI-’Partners in Impact’ Imperative to join up research and LG Hargreaves Report Finch Report European Commission-2020 All major reports in the past 5 years or so on have emphasized- Research must be of use to the civic, public/private organizations, and the world of practice

9. Finch Report on Open Access ‘ Accessibility, Sustainability and Excellence' How how publicly funded research could be more freely available in the public domain. Because free open access to scholarly work, in theory at least, removes barriers to participation, serves the public good, and facilitates greater knowledge on impact.

10. Process Issues Two preliminary meetings with the Chair of the LRP- to plan a half day event Chair of LRP had to negotiate with the Board- also had to get ‘buy in’ from Regional person JL had to negotiate across the University and beyond- only partially successful Literature Review and benchmarking with other LRFs Another planning meeting to determine format and structure of a half day event LRF Chair had to debrief Board with outcomes of the event to determine scope for future events

11. Content of the event Global trends impacting on public management Specific UK situation-New Labour to Coalition (a philosophical shift?) Civil Service Reform and need for new skills Commissioning and stakeholder models of national/local delivery- a new local government model? The CEOs ‘voice’ – interview findings-key issues Then we drew on JL/PM specific policy expertise Specific policy shifts JL-Regional/LG, Welfare, Business, Education, Criminal Justice PM-Health and Emergency Services

12. JL & PM Decentralization and Localism agenda- communities in control-right to buy assets, right to challenge, local referenda –Leading ‘places’ and co-produced or shared service delivery Important changes to local government, health and emergency services (finance, audit, structure, delivery, data sharing and transparency, accountability mechanisms, future of multi-agency partnership, welfare reform, education, housing, neighbourhood planning, police, other services) The view from CEOs in Local Government- identifying some of the challenges-are the local support systems in place? Regional and city government -LEPs and the business agenda- a new ‘enterprise’ agenda-Local Economic Assessments/Place Surveys? Total Place? -Cable’s Industrial Strategy- apprenticeships, skills agenda

13. Event design LECTURETTE Changing policy context DISCUSSION Around 3 focused questions-what does it all mean for CLRF? Strategically Operationally Unintended consequences LECTURETTE Coalition’s confused messages on public services DISCUSSION Around 3 focused questions-what does it all mean for CLRF? Strategically Operationally Unintended consequences

14. The way ahead? PLENARY Where to now for CLRF?

15. Since the event Debrief with Board Individual meetings between JL and some of the Board members (Director of PH ) Needs political ‘buy in’ before further research/engagement can proceed

16. JL now assigned a ‘student as researcher’ undergraduate UNDERTAKING Desk research Web research Literature reviews Interviews with key personnel-ON Other resilience forums, nationally/internationally FRS/Police Training Centres/Curriculum Gov Depts (BIS/HO/CLG) Leadership Centres Professional Associations

17. Reflections on the process and potential future The process was evaluated as very useful and successful -by all participants Obviously the knowledge exchange between university- world of practice is vital Augmented capacity of LRF members as they struggle with austerity, budget cuts but still need to fulfil statutory requirements Helped in scenario planning, horizon scanning and sense making

18. Reflections on the process and potential future Inter-professional learning and knowledge exchange Influenced new behaviours & shaped practice Created better understandings- clarified misunderstandings Created on-going relationship between academe & practice Provided support mechanism and strong links Created a forum for potential joint research

19. Reflections on the process and potential future Satisfied all IMPACT agendas of HEFCE, ESRC,REF,LARCI Hargreaves Report Finch Report European Commission-2020 By making research ‘of use’ and ‘add value’ to civic, public/private organisations, and the world of practice, and broader society

20. FINALLY These meetings/events were done at no cost (other than the academics and practitioners’ time, and not inconsiderable) in order to provide a taster for future work CLRF is still ‘thinking’ about how to take it forward-and without some funding the on-going relationship may be jeopardised