1. Paul VanRaden and John Cole Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Beltsville, MD, USA paul@aipl.arsusda.gov 2004 Planned Changes to Models and Trait Definitions

2. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (2)P.M. VanRaden 2004 November 2004 Changes  Pregnancy checks used in days open predictions (130-250 DIM)  Longevity for foreign Holstein bulls  Single-trait longevity from Interbull  Multi-trait processing at AIPL  Foreign bull mean PL REL = 46% (was 38%), NM$ REL = 72% (was 71%)  15 countries (Other breeds Feb. 2005)

3. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (3)P.M. VanRaden 2004 2005 Trait and Model Changes  Adjust for past inbreeding (F) and expected future inbreeding (EFI)  Adjust for differing parity SD  Express yield PTA to 36-month age instead of mature equivalent  Use cow instead of bull base for DPR  Use 3.00 instead of breed means for SCS

4. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (4)P.M. VanRaden 2004 SCS Breed Means and Bases SCSHOLJERBSWGUEAYSMSH 19953.103.313.093.212.933.03 20003.093.342.943.312.973.07 February 2005 base 3.00 PTA base change -.11-.32-.05-.23+.08-.05

5. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (5)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Daughter Pregnancy Rate Bases PTA DPRHOLJERBSWGUEAYSMSH 1995 cow mean.4.2.6-.3-.1.5 PTA progress-.1 -.2.0 PTA base change -.3-.1-.4+.5+.1-.5

6. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (6)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Inbreeding Adjustments VanRaden and Smith, 1999, JDS 82:2771  F (past inbrd.) and EFI (future inbrd.)  Regression on F in animal model (PTA 0 )  PTA EFI = PTA 0 + EFI * b yield.F  Corr (current PTA, PTA EFI ) =.9976  Genetic trend for PTA EFI is reduced  Yield trend 6% less, DPR 14% lower, PL 25% lower, SCS becomes slightly unfavorable  Predict NM$ EFI = NM$ + 7 (F daus ) – 14 (EFI)

7. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (7)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Use in Mating Programs  Replace EFI with progeny F  PA NM$ = (NM$ sire + NM$ dam )/2  Progeny merit = PA NM$ – 14 [F prog - (EFI sire - EFI dam )/2]  Similar to calving ease  NM$ includes average value of SCE  SCE has higher value for heifer matings, lower for cow matings

8. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (8)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Parity SD Adjustments  Multiplicative or additive adjustments?  Neither makes variances quite equal  Combined approach (Funk et al, 1991 JDS)  Lactation 1-5 deviations multiplied by  [1.06.99.94.89.85] (milk, fat, protein)  [.97.99 1.01 1.02 1.02] (SCS)  [1.03 1.00.98.97.96] (DPR)  Helps pass Interbull trend test 1  Corr (official, adjusted PTA) =.9998

9. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (9)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Age Adjustment for Yield PTA  Use 36 months vs. mature equivalent  Standardized and actual means similar  Age factors are estimated more precisely  More fair when breed maturity rates differ  Proposed previously by USDA  McDaniel (1973, JDS 56:959), Schutz (1994)  Recommended by Holstein GAC, Oct 1994  Vetoed by Council in 1994 “to allow the industry time to consider the nature and effect of such a change.”

10. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (10)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Breed SD and Maturity Rates Age factors from Schutz, 1994 Yield traitsHOLJERBSWGUEAYSMSH 2000 SD / 1990 SD 1.111.181.121.05 ME / 24 mo1.281.271.371.201.221.29 ME / 36 mo1.10 1.151.051.101.15 Net change in PTA SD 1.021.06.981.02.95.88

11. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (11)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Actual vs Standardized Means (current CA data, all lactations) Herd Averages Actual 36-month Equiv. Mature Equiv. Milk22,08021,87723,723 Fat797792855 Protein670678718

12. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (12)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Genetic Trend 1995-2000 (cow birth year) PTAHOLJERBSWGUEAYSMSH Net Merit1551281461007657 Prot (lbs)1916 1286 Fat (lbs)1816191696 Milk (lbs)592442479420259225 Prod Life.3.4.2.6 SCS.01 -.04.02-.01.02 DPR (%)-.1 -.2.0

13. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (13)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Calving Ease Changes (Feb. 2005)  Joint BSW-HOL evaluation (pending NAAB approval)  11,793 BSW, 3431 BSW-HOL calvings  12 million HOL calvings  Includes breed-of-MGS effect  Uses HOL (co)variance components and breed-specific bases

14. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (14)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Calving Ease Model Validation  Results passed Interbull trend validation  Joint BSW-HOL results compared to single-breed evaluations  Correlations showed BSW data did not adversely affect HOL results.

15. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (15)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Product-moment Correlations Rank Correlations Breed Sire Sol MGS Sol Sire PDB MGS PDB Sire Sol MGS Sol Sire PDB MGS PDB BSW.949.889.844.795.900.827.816.779 HOL.999.992.970 Within-breed vs Joint Evaluation

16. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (16)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Summary for Calving Ease HOLBSW Sire Calving Ease8.3 ± 1.67.6 ± 1.1 Daughter Calving Ease7.6 ± 1.15.9 ± 0.8 SCE Reliability63.755.9 DCE Reliability58.154.1

17. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (17)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Future Research  Genetic evaluation of crossbreds  Productive life trait definition  Lactation length, yield correlations  Trend tests prevent inbreeding adj.  Yield trait model improvements  Mendelian sampling variance  Persistency, rate of maturity

18. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (18)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Summary  Longevity from Interbull in Nov 2004  Brown Swiss calving ease in Feb 2005  Adjustments for inbreeding and for differing parity SD in Feb 2005  Age adjustment to 36 months instead of mature will affect breed means and SD

19. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (19)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Longevity Genetic Correlations Interbull, Sept. 2004 USACANDEUNLDFRAITAGBR USA.88.82.79.67.72.82 CAN.88.84.75.70.75.82 DEU.82.84.80.66.77.83 NLD.79.75.80.79.70.65 FRA.67.70.66.79.67.60 ITA.72.75.77.70.67.70 GBR.82.83.65.60.70

20. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (20)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Sire Calving Ease Correlations Interbull, Oct. 2004 USACANDEUNLDFRAITADNK USA.76.61.78.88.66.90 CAN.76.74.76.79.74.88 DEU.61.74.70.73.61.78 NLD.78.76.70.85.61.86 FRA.88.79.73.85.72.91 ITA.66.74.61.72.78 DNK.90.88.78.86.91.78

21. S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (21)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Daughter Calving Ease Correlations Interbull, Oct. 2004 USACANDEUNLDFRAITADNK USA.71.68.79.90.84.77 CAN.71.87.72.58.91 DEU.68.87.58.61.80 NLD.79.87.75.67.84 FRA.90.72.58.75.82.77 ITA.84.58.61.67.82.61 DNK.77.91.80.84.77.61