1. John B. Cole* and Paul M. VanRaden Animal Genomics and Improvement Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA Beltsville, MD 20705-2350 john.cole@ars.usda.gov 2014 An updated version of lifetime net merit incorporating additional fertility traits and new economic values

2. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (2) Cole and VanRaden Introduction Lifetime net merit (NM$) is a selection index for commercial dairy producers Cheese-, fluid, and grazing-merit indices accommodate alternative marketing & production scenarios The goal is to produce cattle that will be profitable under market conditions in 3 to 5 years.

3. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (3) Cole and VanRaden Why do we need to update NM$? New traits can better describe the biology of the cow. Production economics change in response to market demands and policy decisions. Changes in evaluation methodology or trait definitions can affect calculations.

4. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (4) Cole and VanRaden Trait Relative emphasis on traits in index (%) PD$ 1971 MFP$ 1976 CY$ 1984 NM$ 1994 NM$ 2000 NM$ 2003 NM$ 2006 NM$ 2010 Milk5227–265000 Fat4846452521222319 Protein…27534336332316 PL………2014111722 SCS………–6–9 –10 UDC…………7767 FLC…………4434 BDC…………–4–3–4–6 DPR……………7911 SCE……………–2…… DCE……………–2…… CA$………………65 Our indices have changed over time

5. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (5) Cole and VanRaden The economic situation has changed Milk prices are higher than predicted in 2010, driven largely by a strong export market, which increases the value of production. Replacement prices are lower and beef prices higher than in 2010, which decreases the value of longevity. Replacement prices have been volatile. Beef futures are forecast to remain high.

6. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (6) Cole and VanRaden We have more traits to describe fertility Daughter pregnancy rate from lactation data (1960s to present). Heifer and cow conception rates from fertility data (2003 to present). Fertility traits benefit from multi-trait processing. Genetic correlations are high and many observations are missing. DPRHCRCCR DPR0.040.410.87 HCR0.100.020.54 CCR0.700.100.03 Heritabilities (diagonal) and genetic (above) and phenotypic (below) correlations.

7. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (7) Cole and VanRaden Graziers face different challenges Graziers face different economic pressures Notably, more fertility and less longevity GM$ 2014 does not include dairy form, as proposed by Gay et al. (2014). We’re working with the traits we have.

8. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (8) Cole and VanRaden Trait Relative emphasis on traits in index (%) NM$ 2010 CM$ 2014 FM$ 2014 GM$ 2014 NM$ 2014 Milk0-82477 Fat1920242224 Protein162501315 PL2216191119 SCS–10-8-5-6–7 UDC76787 FLC43444 BDC–6-4 –4 DPR1144145 HCR…1 252 CCR …1 23 2 CA$ 5 455 5 Where are we going? More yield (44%) Less fertility, more traits (9%) Less PL (19%)

9. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (9) Cole and VanRaden Including recessive tests There are currently 20 recessives tracked in US dairy cattle. Not all are undesirable (e.g., polled). Gene dosages are needed in order to include haplotype or SNP tests in NM$. Could follow after Gengler et al. (2007) or Van Doormaal and Kistemaker (2008). Estimating associated economic values will be challenging.

10. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (10) Cole and VanRaden Feed costs are problematic New data for calculating the feed costs for fat and protein are arriving. The current model says protein costs more to make than fat. Intake data indicate even higher protein costs, which seems counterintuitive. Phenotypic and genetic correlations may differ, as with SCS.

11. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (11) Cole and VanRaden Subindices may aid interpretation Calving ease and stillbirth are combined into a calving ability subindex, CA$. This idea could be extended to other trait groups, such as yield and fertility. Emphasizes the economic value of the group over individual traits. Traits can be added without changing the interpretation of the subindex.

12. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (12) Cole and VanRaden Conclusions More emphasis on yield and less on fertility & longevity in Dec. 2014 NM$. NM$ 2014 is correlated by 0.965 with NM$ 2010, and by 0.991 with 2006 NM$. Increased genetic progress worth $8 million/year is expected if all breeders select on NM$. The addition of GM$ provides a new selection tool for graziers.

13. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (13) Cole and VanRaden Acknowledgments The members of SCC084, “Genetic selection and mating strategies to improve the well-being and efficiency of dairy cattle”. Investigators on AFRI Integrated Project 2011-68004-30340, “Genomic Selection and Herd Management for Improved Feed Efficiency of the Dairy Industry”.

14. 2014 Joint Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, July 21, 2014 (14) Cole and VanRaden Questions? http://gigaom.com/2012/05/31/t-mobile-pits-its-math-against-verizons-the-loser-common-sense/shutterstock_76826245/