1. R EGIONAL L AND USE S CENARIO P LANNING S TUDY G ENERAL I NTRODUCTION TO S CENARIO P LANNING

2. S CENARIO PLANNING 101: G ENERAL OVERVIEW E XPLORATION OF M ULTIPLE F UTURES R EALITY CHECK R OLL C ALL

3. What is scenario planning? Scenario planning provides a forum, process, set of tools, and measurable outcomes for communities of all sizes to contemplate future possibilities. Study Area General Overview Regional Applications of Scenario Planning include: Strategic Development Plans Long Range Transportation Plans Capital Improvements Prioritization Growth Audits

4. Why do scenario planning? Study Area General Overview Explore the “what if’s” of a region’s future Consider the tradeoffs between different growth scenarios or policy decisions Re-frame local growth questions Answer what, where, when, and how growth should occur to meet a common vision “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them.” -- Albert Einstein

5. Study Area Exploration of Multiple Futures “Base Year” “Future Year” Traditional Approach… Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a pre-defined future planning horizon (i.e., business-as-usual).

6. Study Area Exploration of Multiple Futures Scenario Planning Approach… “Base Year” “Future Year Alternatives” Stakeholders consider several plausible futures for a region assuming a pre-defined planning horizon.

7. Study Area Exploration of Multiple Futures A B C D Scenario Planning Approach… Stakeholders evaluate competing development alternatives and establish a common vision for regional policies and decision- making related to new growth and anticipated changes in the region.

8. Study Area Reality Check Evaluate the Alternatives… The different futures (alternatives) can be compared with one another or evaluated on their own merits with regard to many different quantitative and qualitative measures ranging from cost (or allocation of resources) in dollars to effects on transportation, open space, schools, and community facilities

9. Study Area Scenario Planning Roll Call Atlanta Regional Commission Nashville, TN Memphis, TN Charleston, SC (BCD COG) Durham, NC And many others… Regions, cities, counties, and towns throughout the nation and nearby are doing scenario planning:

10. S CENARIO PLANNING TOOLKIT : P LANNING PROCESS A VAILABLE TOOLS K EY STAKEHOLDERS

11. Study Area Typical Scenario Planning Process Growth Allocation Reality Check Synthesize Growth Scenarios Land Suitability Analysis Resource Maps Public Outreach Concept Maps Trend Analysis Scenario Analysis Model Calibration

12. Study Area Scenario Planning Toolbox Scenario Planning Software Development Chip Game Regional TDM Focus Area Studies Project Website Growth Forecasts

13. Study Area Key Stakeholders Regional Planning Agencies County Governments Local Cities & Towns - Elected and Appointed Officials - Local Staff Business and Real Estate Professionals Public Institutions General Public Who can be Involved in a Regional Scenario Planning Study?

14. T HE E ND G AME : THE B IG Q UESTIONS S HARING THE R ESULTS L INKAGE TO O THER P LANNING I NITIATIVES

15. Study Area Answers to the Big Questions How big do we want to be? Where do we want to grow? Are we growing sustainably? Can we pay for our growth? Are we still be proud of where we live? Scenario planning helps to answer the big questions:

16. Study Area Results are Shared in Many Forms The outcomes of the plan are shared in graphical and data- intensive forms to clearly communicate ideas and findings to a broad cross section of people and to increase the utility of the findings for local and regional staff in decision-making.

17. Study Area Linkage to Other Planning Initiatives Regional Plans - Long Range Transportation Plan - State of the Region Report Local Government Plans - Comprehensive Plan - Zoning & Subdivision Ordinances - Capital Improvements Plan

18. R EGIONAL L AND USE S CENARIO P LANNING S TUDY G ENERAL I NTRODUCTION TO S CENARIO P LANNING