1. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 1 PEER GMSM Program: Recommendations for Selection and Scaling of Ground Motions and Evaluation of the ATC-58 Procedures Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007

2. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 2 Collaboration Among Many Researchers Program Members: Norm Abrahamson Jack Baker Yousef Bozorgnia Allin Cornell Christine Goulet Curt Haselton Erol Kalkan Nico Luco Tom Shantz Jonathan Stewart Polsak Tothong Jennie Watson- Lamprey Farzin Zareian

3. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 3 Collaboration Among Many Researchers Program Collaborators: Arzhang Alimoradi Paolo Bazzurro Greg Deierlein Jamshid Ghaboussi Mahmoud Hachem Charlie Kircher Praveen Malhotra Frank McKenna Coleen McQuoid Jack Moehle Farzad Naeim Maury Powers Ellen Rathje Nilesh Shome Brian Skyers Gang Wang Andrew Whittaker Bob Youngs Tony Yang

4. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 4 GMSM Mission To provide guidance and tools to the engineering community on appropriate GMSM methods for nonlinear dynamic analyses.

5. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 5 Ground Motion Selection and Modification Selection based only on seismological principles leads to large variability of results.

6. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 6 Large Variability in Results Building Code Mini-Study led by Jack Baker ASCE 7-05 6.5 < M < 7.6 0 < R < 30 km Strike slip events only Target spectrum exceeded as per code requirements

7. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 7 Building Code Method

8. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 8 Building Code Method

9. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 9 Building Code Method Median estimates are approximately one sigma above the expected median response. –Bias in results –Implied increase in return period of ground motion From this small sample there is a factor of 1.5 difference in median estimates. –Large variability of results

10. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 10 Ground Motion Selection and Modification Selection based only on seismological principles leads to large variability of results. There are two solutions to this problem: –Perform a high end analysis that uses more records –Be smarter about picking records

11. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 11 Solution 1. High End Analysis Large number of ground motions Regression on the results of the nonlinear dynamic analysis Coupling the regression with ground motion prediction equations gives a best estimate of structural response

12. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 12 Example building results from over 300 ground motions

13. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 13 Example building regression Identify key record properties that are important to building response - this will be building specific. Perform a regression to determine distribution of EDP as a function of the key properties. For example: Use spectral values at different periods to model the EDP.

14. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 14 Example building best estimate of response Scenario Event - magnitude & distance Design Event - magnitude, distance & ground motion Risk Based - full hazard curve for an engineering demand parameter

15. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 15 Example - Scenario Event

16. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 16 Example - Design Event

17. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 17 Example - Risk Based

18. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 18 Example - Risk Based

19. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 19 High End Analysis More time consuming Highly accurate estimate of both median and variability of structural response

20. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 20 Solution 2. Smarter Selection A large number (100s) of records is impractical in many cases We want a method of ground motion selection and modification that has a higher degree of accuracy using only a small number of records –Median –Variability - not discussed today In order to do this we have to know something about the building so we know what’s important for response

21. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 21 Solution 2. Smarter Selection Objection: The ground doesn’t know the building is there. The motions should be the same no matter what the building is.

22. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 22 Solution 2. Smarter Selection There is a distribution of record properties (Dur, PGV, RMS) for a given design event. These record properties affect the nonlinear response of structures.

23. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 23 Solution 2. Smarter Selection IF we could sample the entire distribution of all record properties with the ground motions then the set wouldn’t need to depend on the building. BUT when using a small number of ground motions it is impossible to capture so many record properties at once. THEREFORE we have to know which ones are important and select based on those important properties. In order to do this we have to know something about the structure.

24. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 24 COSMOS 2006 Results There are many simplified methods for selecting a small set of records. Depending on the method used there can be a factor of 3 difference in your results.

25. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 25 GMSM Mission To provide guidance and tools to the engineering community on appropriate GMSM methods for nonlinear dynamic analyses. To do this we need to evaluate the simplified methods and determine which ones produce the desired response.

26. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 26 GMSM Evaluation Procedure Identify an application for which the ground motions will be employed. –4 structural models, 4 - 20 stories –Curt Haselton will discuss Identify the candidate GMSM methods. –46 methods are now being looked at –Draft summaries of the methods are available on the GMSM website

27. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 27 GMSM Evaluation Procedure Identify the goal of the application. –The building code made me do it –Learn something about the building –PBEE - defined distribution of EDP We start with median EDP | M, R, Sa - this is the building block for other more complicated analyses

28. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 28 GMSM Evaluation Procedure Calculate a best estimate of response using a high end analysis to serve as the point of comparison (POC) Compare the results from each GMSM method with the POC

29. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 29 GMSM Results 2007 Overview of Results - Curt Haselton –Bias in results can be reduced by taking into account spectral shape. –In order to reduce the variability between suites of motions the selection must be optimized based on record properties that are important for nonlinear response. –This means we have to know something about the structure.

30. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 30 GMSM Results 2007 Evaluation of ATC-58 35% - Farzin Zareian –Time-based selection method overestimates median response for above average ground motion because it ignores spectral shape. –Time-based selection has variability in median estimates of response because the motions are selected from an M, R bin.

31. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 31 GMSM Results 2007 Evaluation of ATC-58 35% - Farzin Zareian –Scenario-based selection method overestimates the variability of response because it double counts the ground motion variability at periods other than T1.

32. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 32 GMSM Results 2007 Wrap up - Nico Luco

33. Jennie Watson-Lamprey COSMOS Annual Meeting Technical Session November 9, 2007 33 Thank You