1. © 2001 by Prentice Hall& Prof Anne Tsui 5-1 September 17, 2002 Forecasting Demands and Recruiting Employees

2. © 2001 by Prentice Hall & Prof Anne Tsui5-2 Quantitative Methods for Forecasting HR Demand u Moving averages with or without smoothing for seasonal trends, based on past data NO OF EEMPOLYEE OVER 5 YEAR FOR EXAMPLE u Regression – use multiple indicators( TURNOVER RATE) and past data to predict future trends(BUSINESS GROWTH, INDUSTRY GROWTH) AS THEY AFFECT YOUR BUSINESSS u Simulations – best case and worst case scenarios based on specific events, PROJRECTION OF 10% ECONOMY GROWTH MAYBE YOUR COMPANY IS DOING AS BEST THEN YOUR LABOUT DEMAND IS BEST CASE SCENARIO u Markov models – more sophisticated approach to predict probability of movements into different jobs based on past data. Ie.possibility OF HOW THE MOVEMENT ACROSS COMPANY AND OUT OF THE COMPANY u Only really large firms use the the sophisticated approaches, but trend projection is applicable to all.

3. © 2001 by Prentice Hall & Prof Anne Tsui5-3 Forecasting HR supply  Industry data on skilled labor pool iePEOPLE working for other company, EMPLOYEES OF  University data on graduations (RATE)  Internal labor force analysis ie WHAT AT THE POTENTIAL OF FEEDER JOB, IE POSSIBLE PROMOTION, SKILLS TO TRANSFER SKILLS AFTER TRAINING  Others?

4. © 2001 by Prentice Hall & Prof Anne Tsui5-4 Examples of Predicting Labor Supply and Required New Hires for a Hotel Chain A % Quit B # of Present Emp. C Proj. Turnover by 2003 Key Positions General Manager Resident Manager Food/Beverage Dir. Controller Asst. Controller Chief Engineer Director of Sales Sales Manager Convention Mgr. Catering Director Banquet Manager Personnel Director Restaurant Mgr. Executive Chef Sous Chef Exec. Housekeeper Total 38 77 47 85 66 81 34 68 90 74 60 43 89 70 92 63 25 9 23 25 14 24 25 45 14 19 15 49 24 25 379 10 7 11 21 9 16 9 30 13 14 12 6 44 17 22 16 257 D Emp. Left by 2003 15 2 12 4 5 8 16 15 1 5 7 9 5 7 2 9 122 32 12 29 32 18 31 32 58 18 24 19 63 31 32 486 17 10 17 28 13 23 16 43 17 19 17 10 58 24 29 23 364 E Proj. Labor Demand in 2003 F Proj. New Hires in 2003 Supply AnalysisSupply-Demand Comp.

5. © 2001 by Prentice Hall & Prof Anne Tsui5-5 Recruitment ie find as many applicant as possible Recruitment is the process of generating a pool of qualified candidates for a particular job. The firm must announce the job’s availability to the market and attract qualified candidates to apply. The firm may seek applicants from inside the organization, outside the organization, or both.

6. © 2001 by Prentice Hall & Prof Anne Tsui5-6 Generating an applicant pool  The key to recruiting success is in generating a large applicant pool – this increases your selection ratio  Use multiple recruiting methods and sources, eg in books  Provide attractive and relevant information to potential applicants

7. © 2001 by Prentice Hall & Prof Anne Tsui5-7 Generating an Applicant Pool for Comuptime  Identify the potential applicant pools for the HR Director position at Computime  What recruiting methods or sources would you suggest?  Write up a recruiting plan for Computime (in class assignment 3)

8. © 2001 by Prentice Hall & Prof Anne Tsui5-8 Team Project  Team members  Attention to team process and manage task – apply your OB course  Choice of topic  Proposal due Oct. 3 – 3 weeks  Time management