1. 2008 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
2008 Summary
Methodology / Realization Factor
Trends – Mass / Transponders
Operator Assessment
Macro Economics
Summary
May 2008
Chris Kunstadter
Gwynne Shotwell
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
Cover art by John Sloan/FAA

2. 2008 GSO Summary
Average 21.8
Average 16.2
commercial GSO satellite and launch demand forecast increased by 1 from 2007

3. Report History Commercial GSO launch demand forecast
Updated annually since 1993
Methodology has been consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements to reflect industry evolution
Update this year - smallest mass class was < 2,200 kg, now < 2,500 kg
10-year forecast horizon ( )
2008 report updates
Realization factor
Growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite
Industry developments that may affect demand
Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand

4. Working Group Participation
Gwynne Shotwell SpaceX
(2008 GSO Forecast Chair)
Beth King Lockheed Martin
(2007 GSO Forecast Chair)
Dr. Alexander Liang Aerospace Corp.
(T&IWG Chair)
John Sloan FAA AST
Darren Chambo Lockheed Martin
Lisa Hague Aerospace Corp.
Doug Howe / Josef Lore Boeing
Veronica Johnson / Greg Caudel ULA
David Keslow Orbital
Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance
Joanna Malvino / Bill Hayes /
Kathy Shockey / Tom Monroe SS/L
Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF / SMC / MV
Chris O’Connell Sea Launch
Chris Sanders P&W Rocketdyne

5. Forecast Data Request
Ten-year GSO satellite launch demand requested from 92 organizations worldwide
29 inputs received (versus 22 last year)
Comprehensive
6 US and 3 international satellite manufacturers / launch service providers (same as 2007)
Individual
20 demand inputs from satellite operators (increased from 13 last year)
Questionnaire on factors affecting market demand
18 satellite operators responded to questions on how various factors affected their plans to procure new satellites
Up from 12 respondents in 2007

6. Forecast Methodology Near-term (2008-2010) mission model
“Bottoms-up” by identified satellite
Timing and likelihood of launches assessed
Long-term ( ) demand forecast
Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories
International input used as a cross check
Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites
Defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement
2008 addressable launches includes the first Long March launch (Palapa D) defined as addressable since 1997

7. Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast
Large increase in near-term demand from the 2007 forecast

8. Historical Forecast Comparison
2008 near-term forecast higher than 4 of 5 most recent forecasts

9. Satellite Launch “Realization” vs. Demand
The GSO forecast projects demand for satellite launches
Several factors can affect the execution of a scheduled launch in a given year
Satellite issues
Launch vehicle issues
Manifesting & scheduling issues
Funding
Weather
Regulatory delays
A “realization factor” is based on an analysis of historical forecast vs. actual satellite launches for the first and second year of the forecast
No change in this methodology from last year
2007 actuals fell within realization range

10. 2007 Actual Satellites vs. Forecasted Demand
Reason for delay Planned Actual
23 18
Launch vehicle (3)
Thor 5, AMC 14 and Thuraya 3
Satellite / launch vehicle (1)
ICO-GEO 1
Satellite (1)
Star One C2
78% actual vs. forecast
Realization factor predicted launches

11. Forecast With Realization
Since implementation of the realization factor, actual number of satellites launched has fallen within adjusted band

12. Forecast By Satellite Mass Class
Forecast indicates stability in satellites to be launched in two highest mass classes
Smallest satellite class increases in the near term, then decreases and stabilizes

13. Total and Average Satellite Mass Launched
Average satellite mass stabilizing at ~4,200 kg after peak of 4,500 kg in 2005

14. Spacecraft Trends: Transponders
Slight drop in average transponders launched per year
An increase is expected in 2009

15. Satellite Operator Assessment
Significant Negative Impact
Some Negative Impact
No Effect
Some Positive Impact
Significant Positive Impact
Compared to 2007
Regional or global economic conditions 0%
33%
39%
28% é
Demand for satellite services 6%
11%
22%
Ability to compete with terrestrial services
61% ê
Availability of financing
17%
44%
Availability of affordable insurance
56%
Consolidation of service providers
94%
Increasing satellite life times
72%
Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements
Reliability of satellite systems
Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements
50%
Reliability of launch systems
Ability to obtain required export licenses
Ability to obtain required operating licenses

16. Satellite Operator Assessment
Only two areas are more negative than in last year’s survey
Ability to compete with terrestrial services
Ability to get required licensing
Remaining are more positive than last year
Economic conditions had less negative impact (watch item for next year)
Demand for services
Availability of financing
Availability of affordable insurance (watch item for next year)
Availability / reliability of launch vehicles
Consolidation of service providers
Increasing satellite lifetimes
Availability of satellite systems to meet requirements
Reliability of satellite systems
Availability & reliability of launchers
Ability to obtain required export licensing

17. Summary of Findings 2008 GSO demand forecast
average annual satellite demand of 21.8 per year (increase by 1 from 2007 forecast)
average annual launch demand of 16.2 per year (increase by 1 from 2007 forecast)
2008 satellite demand of 27, with a realization between 17 and 22
More positive outlook from respondents than in 2007
Ability to compete with terrestrial services and licensing are the only areas more negative than last year
Growth in demand in coming years could be helped by
DARS & MSS growth
Hosted payloads
New commercial launch competitors
Economic conditions and recent launch failures may impact results in