1. 2007 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast May 2007 Beth King COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group beth.king@lmco.com Cover art by John Sloan/FAA 2007 Summary Methodology / Realization Factor Trends – Mass / Transponders Operator Assessment Macro Economics Summary

2. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 2 2007 GSO Summary 2007 Commercial GSO Satellite Demand Forecast Effectively The Same As 2006 Forecast 21.0 Average Satellite Demand 15.3 Average Launch Demand 0 5 10 15 20 25 2007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Number of Satellites/Launches 2007 Satellite Demand Forecast 2007 Launch Demand Forecast

3. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 3 Report History Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast –Updated Annually Since 1993 –Methodology Has Been Consistent Over Time, With Ongoing Enhancements To Final Product –10-year Forecast Horizon (2007-2016) 2007 Report Presents Updates On –Realization Factor –Growth In Satellite Mass And Transponders Per Satellite –Industry Developments That May Affect Demand –Respondents’ Views On Factors Affecting Demand

4. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 4 Working Group Participation Beth King (2007 GSO Forecast Chair) - Lockheed Martin Dr. Alexander Liang (T&IWG Chair) - Aerospace Corporation Darren Chambo – Lockheed Martin Lisa Hague – Aerospace Corporation Doug Howe / Josef Lore - The Boeing Company John Sloan - FAA AST Veronica Johnson / Greg Caudel – United Launch Alliance David Keslow - Orbital Sciences Corporation Debra Facktor Lepore - AirLaunch LLC Joanna Malvino / Bill Hayes / Kathy Shockey - Space Systems / Loral Jennifer Miceli - Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/MV Chris O’Connell - Sea Launch Chris Sanders - Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne

5. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 5 Forecast Data Request GSO Satellite Launch Demand Requested For 2007-2016 From 85 Companies Worldwide –Comprehensive: 6 U.S. And 3 International Satellite Manufacturers / Launch Service Providers –Individual: 13 Demand Inputs From Satellite Operators Questionnaire On Factors Affecting Market Demand –12 Satellite Operators Responded To Questions On How Various Factors Affected Their Plans To Procure New Satellites

6. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 6 Forecast Methodology Near-term (2007-2009) Mission Model –“Bottoms-up” By Name –Timing And Likelihood Of Launches Assessed Long-term (2010-2016) Demand Forecast –Average Of Comprehensive Domestic Forecasts By Mass Categories Only “Addressable” Commercial GSO Satellites –Defined As Those Open For Internationally Competitive Launch Service Procurement

7. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 7 Satellite and Launch Forecast Reflects Increase Of Dual Launch Capacity By Ariane 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Number of Satellites/Launches Dual Manifest Launches Single Manifest Launches Satellites Actual Long-Term Demand Forecast Near- Term Manifest

8. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 8 Historical Forecast Comparison 2007 Forecast More Stable Than 2006

9. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 9 Satellite Launch “Realization” vs. Demand The COMSTAC GSO Forecast Projects Demand For Satellite Launches Several Factors Can Affect The Execution Of A Scheduled Launch In A Given Year, Including: –Satellite Delays –Launch Vehicle Delays –Manifesting Delays A “Realization” Factor Is Calculated Based On An Historical Analysis Of Forecast Vs Actual Satellite Launches For The First And Second Year Of The Forecast –This Years Model Changed Realization Factor To Last 5 Years Historical –Funding –Weather –Regulatory Delays

10. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 10 2006 Actual Launches vs. Forecasted Demand 2006 GSOPlannedActual 2319 Satellite(2) Launch Vehicle(1) Satellite / Launch Vehicle(1) Schedule – Dual Manifest(1) Early Launch 1 83% Actual vs. Forecast Realization Factor Predicted 13-20 Launches

11. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 11 Forecast with Realization Since Implementation Of The Realization Factor Actual Satellites Launched Has Fallen Within Adjusted Band 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 199319941995 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 20102011201220132014 20152016 Satellites Historical 1st Year Satellite Demand Forecast 2007 Satellite Demand Forecast Actual Satellites Launched = Expected Realization Historical 1st Yr Forecast Long-Term Demand Forecast Near-Term Manifest Actual

12. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 12 Forecast By Satellite Mass Class 2007 Forecast Indicates Stability In Average Satellite Mass Number Of Small Satellites Continues To Shrink Below 2,200 kg (<4,850 lbm) 2,200 to 4,200 kg (4,850 - 9,260 lbm) 4,200 to 5,400 kg (9,260 - 11,900 lbm) Over 5,400kg 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 19931994 199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 2010 201120122013201420152016 Number of Satellites Launched Actual Long-Term Demand Forecast Near-Term Manifest

13. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 13 Spacecraft Trends: Transponders Transponder Peaks With Number of Launches 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 Total Number of C/Ku/Ka Transponders Launched per Year 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Average Transponders per Satellite Launched Total Number of Transponders per Year Average Transponders per Satellite

14. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 14 Satellite Operator Assessment Significant Negative Impact Some Negative Impact No EffectSome Positive Impact Significant Positive Impact Compared to 2006  = more pos  = more neg Regional or global economic conditions 0%42%33%17%8%  Demand for satellite services 0%25%8%50%17% - Ability to compete with terrestrial services 0%17%50%17%  Availability of financing 8%17%58%17%0%  Availability of affordable insurance 0%33%50%17%0%  Consolidation of service providers 9%27%64%0%  Increasing satellite life times 0%17%83%0% - Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements 8% 58%17%8%  Reliability of satellite systems 0%27%45%27%0% - Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements 17%42%33%0%8%  Reliability of launch systems 0%50%33%17%0%  Ability to obtain required export licenses 17%42% 0%  Ability to obtain required operating licenses 0%8%83%0%8%  Legend Large # positive Large # negative Slightly positive or negative

15. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 15 Satellite Operator Assessment - Macro Economics Availability / Reliability of Launch Vehicles –Sea Launch Failure – Full Manifests Economic Conditions –Continue To Improve, Caution For Potential Financial Bubble U.S. Government Regulatory Environment –Continues to drive foreign operators away from U.S. providers New Commercial Competitors In Launch Market –Land Launch, Soyuz From French Guiana, Japan and India Launch Vehicles Rollout Of New Services –Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), Ancillary Terrestrial Component (ATC) 42% 50%

16. COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/18/2007 16 Summary of Findings GSO Demand Forecast –Average Annual Satellite Launch Demand Of 21.0 Per Year –2007 Demand For 23, Between 15 And 19 Realization Continued Trend Towards Heavier Satellites, Decrease In Demand Of <2,200 Kg Satellites Availability And Reliability Of Launch Vehicles, And Export Licensing, Are Largest Business Factors New Broadband Services May Spur Growth In Demand In Coming Years –HDTV –DAR –ATC –MSS