1. © April 2001 Presented by Larry Smarr lsmarr@soe.ucsd.edu April 26, 2001 Future Planetary Scale Technology Disruptions

2. © April 2001 Page 1 Presented by The Emerging Information Power Grid A Mobile Internet Powered by a Planetary Computer Wireless Access--Anywhere, Anytime Broadband to the Home and Small Businesses Vast Increase in Internet End Points Embedded Processors Sensors and Actuators Information Appliances Highly Parallel Light Waves Through Fiber Emergence of a Planetary Computer “The all optical fibersphere in the center finds its complement in the wireless ethersphere on the edge of the network.” – George Gilder

3. © April 2001 Page 2 Presented by Guerilla vs. Commercial Infrastructure Bottom Up Completely Decentralized Self-Assembling Use at Your Own Risk Paves the Way for Commercial Deployment

4. © April 2001 Page 3 Presented by Examples of Guerilla Infrastructure NSFnet  Internet NCSA Mosaic  Web Napster  Peer-to-Peer Storage SETI@home  Peer-to-Peer Computing IEEE 802.11  Broadband Wireless Internet

5. © April 2001 Page 4 Presented by The Internet is Poised to Move Throughout the Physical World Radio (1940s) Internet (1990s)

6. © April 2001 Page 5 Presented by Broadband Wireless Internet is Here Today Create Wireless Internet “Watering Holes” Ad Hoc IEEE 802.11 Domains Real Broadband--11 mbps  54 mbps Security and Authentication Can be Added Home, Neighborhoods, Office, Schools? MobileStar--Admiral Clubs, Starbucks, Major Hotels, Restaurants, … UCSD—Campus Buildings, Dorms, Coffee Shops… “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed” – William Gibson, Author of Neuromancer

7. © April 2001 Page 6 Presented by Will The Planned Global Rollout of 3G Proceed as Planned? The Economics of Telecom The Huge Debt Load The Investment in 3G Buildout Is There a Business Case to Recoup? Technological Breakouts IEEE 802.11 Buildout Will It Skim the Cream off 3G? 2.5G Can Deploy Now (Sprint PCS) Will 3G Standardize in Europe, Asia, US?

8. © April 2001 Page 7 Presented by Why the Grid is the Future Scientific American, January 2001

9. © April 2001 Page 8 Presented by Governor Davis Has Created Four New Institutes for Science, Innovation, and Tech Transfer UCSB UCLA The California NanoSystems Institute UCSF UCB The California Institute for Bioengineering, Biotechnology, and Quantitative Biomedical Research UCI UCSD The California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology The Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (Proposed-UCB, UCD, UCSC, UCM) UCSC

10. © April 2001 Page 9 Presented by The California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology www.calit2.net 220 UCSD & UCI Faculty and Staff Working in Multidisciplinary Teams With Students, Industry, and the Community The State Provides $100M for New Buildings, Laboratories, and High Tech Equipment

11. © April 2001 Page 10 Presented by A Broad Partnership Response from the Private Sector Akamai, AMCC Boeing, Broadcom CAIMIS,Compaq Conexant, Copper Mountain Cox Communicaions Emulex Enterprise Partners VC Entropia, Ericsson Global Photon, IBM IdeaEdge Ventures Intersil, Irvine Sensors Leap Wireless Litton Industries MedExpert, Merck Microsoft, Mission Ventures NCR, Newport Corp. Orincon, Panoram Tech. Printronix QUALCOMM R.W. Johnson Pharmaceutical SAIC, SciFrame Seagate Storage Silicon Wave, Sony STMicroelectronics Sun Microsystems TeraBurst Networks Texas Instruments UCSD Healthcare The Unwired Fund, WebEx Computers Communications Software Sensors Biomedical Startups Venture Firms $140 M Match From Industry

12. © April 2001 Page 11 Presented by ½ Mile Commodity Internet, Internet2 High-speed WAN (OC48+) Link UCSD and UCI Campus Wireless The UCSD “Living Grid Laboratory”— Fiber, Wireless, Compute, Data, Software SIO SDSC CS Chem Med Eng. / Cal-(IT) 2 Hosp High-speed optical core 8 Gigabit now 80 Gigabit in 18 months 1 Terabit in 36 Months Source: Phil Papadopoulos, SDSC

13. © April 2001 Page 12 Presented by Optically Linked High Resolution Data Analysis and Crisis Management Facilities Planned for Fall 2001 at SIO and SDSU Driven by PC Clusters and AI Data Mining Panoram Technologies, SGI, Sun, TeraBurst Networks, Cox Communications, Global Photon Institute Industrial Partners

14. © April 2001 Page 13 Presented by Wireless Internet Can Put a Supercomputer in the Palm of Your Hand! 802.11b Wireless Interactive Access to: State of Computer Job Status Application Codes

15. © April 2001 Page 14 Presented by Creating Tiny and Inexpensive Wireless Internet Sensors Combining… Fluids Stresses and Strains Optics and Lasers UCI Integrated Nanosystems Research Facility 0.1 mm

16. © April 2001 Page 15 Presented by The Perfect Storm: Convergence of Engineering with BioMed, Physics, & IT 5 nanometers Human Rhinovirus IBM Quantum Corral Iron Atoms on Copper 400x Magnification VCSELaser 500x Magnification 2 mm Nanogen MicroArray

17. © April 2001 Page 16 Presented by Goal: Design of Configurable Wireless Embedded Sensing/Computing/Communicating Appliances Protocol Stacks SoC Design Methodologies Sw/ Silicon /MEMS Implementation Memory Protocol Processors DSP RF Reconf. Logic Wireless RTOS Network Transport Applications sensors Protocols Sw/Hw/Sensor/RF Co-design Reconfiguration Internet Source: Sujit Dey, UCSD ECE Data Link Physical

18. © April 2001 Page 17 Presented by The High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network NSF Funded PI, Hans-Werner Braun, SDSC Co-PI, Frank Vernon, SIO 45mbps Duplex Backbone http://hpwren.ucsd.edu/Presentations/HPWREN

19. © April 2001 Page 18 Presented by The Wireless Internet Adds Bio-Chemical-Physical Sensors to the Grid From Experiments to Wireless Infrastructure Scripps Institution of Oceanography San Diego Supercomputer Center Cal-(IT) 2 From Global Warming to Sewage Warning Source: John Orcutt, SIO

20. © April 2001 Page 19 Presented by Pervasive Computing Means Overlaying the Physical and Cyber Realities Source: Virginia Tech/Univ. Illinois, MIT, Univ Washington, UCSD

21. © April 2001 Page 20 Presented by How Will You Know if The People Are on the Internet? It connects to the audio piece and works like a tiny monitor that projects an image through the really cool bug- eye monocle into my eye. It has lots of ‘serious’ applications, but my favorite is to watch ‘Buffy’. My mom has already realized that when the video is on, the lenses become less transparent. That way she knows if I’m really paying attention to her or reading my email. She’s caught on quickly. http://wearables.www.media.mit.edu/ projects/wearables/mit-ideo/

22. © April 2001 Page 21 Presented by Will People Find Their Cyber Lives More Compelling Than Their Physical Lives? "EverQuest The online, real-time fantasy world lets players assume the roles of warriors and wizards for days on end... As the decade closed, this was the nearest you could get to being on a Star Trek holodeck."

23. © April 2001 Page 22 Presented by The Future Will Not Resemble the Past The emergence of Peer-to-Peer computing signifies a revolution in connectivity that will be as profound to the Internet of future as Mosaic was to the Web of the past.” –Patrick Gelsinger, VP and CTO, Intel Corp.

24. © April 2001 Page 23 Presented by Entropia’s Planetary Computer Grew to a Teraflop in Only Two Years Deployed in Over 80 Countries The Great Mersenne Prime (2 P -1) Search (GIMPS) Found the First Million Digit Prime (www.entropia.com) Eight 1000p IBM Blue Horizons!

25. © April 2001 Page 24 Presented by SETI@home Demonstrated that PC Internet Computing Could Grow to Megacomputers Running on 500,000 PCs, ~1000 CPU Yrs./Day! Over Half a Million CPU Years so far! 22 Teraflops sustained 24x7 Sophisticated Data & Signal Processing Analysis Distributes Datasets from Arecibo Radio Telescope Next Step- Allen Telescope Array Arecibo Radio Telescope

26. © April 2001 Page 25 Presented by Companies Competing for Leadership in Internet Computing Intel Establishes Peer-to-Peer Working Group

27. © April 2001 Page 26 Presented by Extending the Grid to Planetary Dimensions Using Distributed Computing and Storage AutoDock Application Software Has Been Downloaded to Over 20,000 PCs Over 3 Million CPU-Hours Computed In Silico Drug Design Art Olson, TSRI

28. © April 2001 Page 27 Presented by A Mobile Internet Powered by a Planetary Scale Computer

29. © April 2001 Page 28 Presented by Why Will a Million Processor Computer Be Different? Individual Processors Running at Gigaflops One Million Means a Collective Petaflops in early 2000s One Petaflops is Roughly a Human Brain-Second Morovec-Intelligent Robots and Mind Transferral Koza-Genetic Programming Kurzweil-The Age of Spiritual Machines Joy-Humans an Endangered Species?

30. © April 2001 Page 29 Presented by The Ultimate in Disruptive Technologies… Will the Planetary Grid Become Self- Organizing? Powered? Aware? Source: Hans Moravec www.transhumanist.com/volume1/power_075.jpg 1 Million x