1. Inventory of U.S.GHG Emissions and Sinks UNFCCC Reporting Requirements and IPCC Methodological Guidance
Purpose:
Background on GHG Inventory and process:
UNFCCC and IPCC requirements
Overview of the AFOLU estimates
Overview of ongoing improvements and planned
Goal is to be able to capture the activities on the ground including being sensitive enough to capture mitigation efforts such as the Building Block efforts that USDA is overseeing. This is key because in order for these mitigation effort to be counted in terms of meeting international pledges made by the administration—they have to be in here.
C-AGG Meeting
Washington, DC—November 9-10, 2015
Tom Wirth
US EPA—Climate Change Division

2. National GHG Inventory
Produced annually—due by April 15
Accounts for anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals over time: Present
Five methodological chapters
Energy
Industrial Processes and Product Use
Waste
Agriculture
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
Seven primary gases
CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3

3. National GHG Inventory Schedule
Kick-off Meeting (June)
Collect Data and Emissions Factors (Summer)
Prepare Initial Estimates (Fall)
Develop Draft Report (October)
QA/QC of Draft Report (November)
Expert Review Phase (December)
Address Comments (December-January)
Public Review Phase (February)
Finalize Document, Prepare CRF Tables (March)
Submit to UNFCCC (April 15)

4. Agriculture and LULUCF
Census of Agriculture
NASS
FIA
NRI
NLCD
APHIS
MODIS
CTIC
Ag. Waste Mg. Hnbk.

5. Inventory Coordinator
US GHG Inventory Team
Leif Hockstad
Inventory Coordinator
AFOLU
Tom Wirth
Industrial Processes
Mausami Desai
Debbie Ottinger
Dave Godwin
ODSs
F-gases
Waste
Rachel Schmeltz
Energy
Amy Bunker
Susan Burke
Cate Hight
Melissa Weitz
Shah A. Choudhury (DOD)
Bunker Fuels
Natural Gas and Petroleum
Coal Mining
Mobile Fossil Fuel Combustion
Fossil Fuel Combustion

6. Inventory Team for Agriculture and LULUCF (AFOLU)
Tom Wirth (EPA)
AFOLU Lead
Enteric & Manure Management
ERG & Universities
-Data/models linked
-VS/Nxe outputs used in Soil C/Soil N2O
Cropland/Grassland, Soil C, Soil N2O, Rice CH4, FBAR
CSU & ARS
-AD and methods input to DayCent
-Ensures consistency
Forestland, Forest C, HWP, Fire, Soil N2O
US Forest Service
-Linked with CSU for consistency
-LU/LUC (cropland/grassland)
Settlements, Soil N2O, Urban Trees, LFYTFS
CSU & ERG
CSU: Soil N2O
ERG: Urban Trees, LFYTFS
Wetlands, Peatlands, Coastal Wetlands
ERG & NOAA
ERG: Peatlands
NOAA: Coastal Wetlands

7. IPCC Guidelines and UNFCCC Reporting for National GHG Inventories
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses
(AFOLU)
UNFCCC Reporting
Agriculture
Enteric Fermentation (CH4)
Manure Mgt. (CH4 and N2O)
Agric. Soil Mgt. (N2O)
Rice (CH4)
FBAR (CH4 and N2O)
LULUCF
(36 LU/LUC Categories)
Forestland & LCF
Cropland & LCC
Grassland & LCG
Wetlands & LCW
Settlements & LCS
Other Land & LCO
Five C Pools & Non-CO2 Gases

8. GHG Emissions and Removals in AFOLU

9. IPCC Guidance for AFOLU
Provides methods for all emissions and removals from Agriculture and LULUCF
Required for UNFCCC reporting in 2015
New/updated guidance for wetlands
Gain experience in use of Supplement and report in 2017

10. IPCC Tiered Methodologies
For each source/sink category methods are provided at three tier levels:
Tier 1– Designed to use readily available national or international statistics (e.g., FAO) with default emission factors. Any country can apply. Tier 2– Uses similar approach as Tier 1, but with country-specific factors or further disaggregation Tier 3—Models, measurement or country-specific approach
Increasing Methodological Complexity and Accuracy
The Tier used is driven by significance of the flux and availability of data

11. Inventory Quality Indicators and Good Practice Guidance
Result
Credible
Reliable
Useful
Inventory
Assessed for Uncertainties
Subject to QA/QC
Efficient use of resources
Uncertainties reduced over time
TCCCA
Transparent
Consistent
Complete
Comparable
Accurate
…ensure neither over nor underestimates so far as can be judged and with uncertainties reduced as far as practicable

12. NGHGI Structure for All Sources/Sinks
Overview
Description of source/sink—cause of emission/removal
Trends/drivers
Emissions/removals in MMT CO2 eq. and kilotons of gas
Estimation methodology and activity data
Uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation for a 95% confidence interval with lower and upper bounds around the central estimate
Time series consistency
QA/QC and verification
Recalculations Discussion
Planned Improvements

13. Domestic and International Review Processes
Annual Domestic Reviews
Expert and Public reviews
Thirty days each
Not formal, as with regulatory review
Annual UNFCCC Reviews
Centralized review
In-Country review
Annual review report developed
Inventory team must respond to issues identified in the report

14. Managed Land
Complete representation of the land base, categorized into 6 IPCC LUCs
Combine NRI, FIA, NLCD
Separate into managed and unmanaged land
Apply managed land definition
Under IPCC Guidance “managed” land is a proxy for anthropogenic emissions
Identify the land use conversions between lands
Lands remain in conversion category for 20 years
For all 36 LU/LUC categories estimate C stock changes by pool:
Above/below-ground biomass
Dead wood and litter
Soil organic matter
Non-CO2 emissions

15. US Managed Land Base (1,000s ha’s) Includes all 50 states
Excludes US Territories
NRI data only goes through 2007
C stock changes not estimated for entire managed land base:
Interior AK HI
Federal Grasslands

16. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks by Sector: 1990-2013
Emissions grew 4.7% from
Downward trend since 2007
CO2 (83%), CH4 (9%), N2O (6%) and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (2%)

17. 2013 AFOLU Emissions (MMT CO2 eq.)

18. 2013 AFOLU Removals (MMT CO2 eq.)

19. Improvements for 2016 NGHGI
Updated Forest Carbon Accounting Framework—LU/LUC and attribution
Federal grasslands—Soil C stock changes using IPCC Tier 2 approach
Rice CH4 estimated using DAYCENT, except for organic soils. Updates previous approach based on EFs developed from highly variable measurement data.
Update NRI data through 2010 (current NRI data in the inventory only runs through 2007)
Preliminary estimates for coastal wetlands (i.e., tidal marsh, seagrass meadows and mangroves)
Adopt new FCAF to improve attribution of land use, land-use change, and attribute disturbances (e.g., harvest, fire, storm) across inventory time series
Account for C stock changes in soils on federal grasslands from land use and land-use conversion using IPCC Tier 2 approach and BLM data on rangeland condition
Utilize the DAYCENT model to estimate CH4 emissions from rice cultivation. Updates previous approach based on EFs developed from highly variable measurement data. Improves consistency across croplands
Update NRI data through 2010 (current NRI data in the inventory only runs through 2007)
Update the time series for the Enhanced Vegetation Index through 2010 to improve the ability to estimate production and C inputs to agricultural soils
Replace the weather data that had been based on a 32 km grid from NARR with weather data on a 4km grid from PRISM. Improves the resolution for temperature and precipitation in the model
Update the soils data with latest SSURGO database
Provide preliminary estimates of C stock changes and non-CO2 emissions from coastal wetlands (i.e., tidal marsh, seagrass meadows and mangroves)

20. Planned Improvements for NGHGI
Reconciliation of the FIA, NRI and NLCD to improve the representation of land base and associated land use transfers
Incorporate CEAP data for cropland/grassland—tillage, fertilization, crop rotation, residue management and more.
Incorporate the NRI land use and management data—initiate process of biennial updates
Grasslands: Fires (CH4 and N2O), and stock changes from non-soil C stocks
Integrate residue burning emissions (CH4 and N2O) into DAYCENT. Capture changes in C and N inputs to the soil as a result of these burning events—impact soil C/N2O
Include C stock changes from interior Alaska forest lands and grasslands
Incorporate additional guidance from IPCC Wetlands Supplement e.g., drained organic soils
Improve integration of enteric and manure management emissions by combining models
Reconciliation of the FIA, NRI and NLCD to improve the representation of land base and associated land use transfers
Incorporate CEAP data for cropland/grassland—tillage , fertilization, residue management and more. Subset of NRI points that can be imputed to cover much of US land base
Incorporate the NRI land use and management data—initiate process of biennial updates
Include CH4 and N2O emissions from fires on all grasslands. Integrate into the as part of the DAYCENT modeling framework to ensure the changes in C and N inputs to the soil as a result of fires are reflected in the soil C and soil N2O emission estimates.
Improve estimates of CH4/N2O from residue burning through use of spatially explicit data and integration into the DAYCENT modelling framework allowing the NGHGI to capture changes in C and N inputs to the soil as a result of these burning events
Account for non-soil C pools (e.g., above-/below-ground biomass) on grasslands
Include C stock changes from interior Alaska forest lands and grasslands
Incorporate new guidance from IPCC Wetlands Supplement e.g., drained organic soils
Improve integration of enteric and manure management emissions by combining models

21. To download a copy of the Inventory of U. S
To download a copy of the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: , visit:
Thanks for listening!
Tom Wirth
US EPA
Climate Change Division
GHG Inventory Coordinator--AFOLU
(202)