1. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. 2002 Selection of dairy cattle for lifetime profit Paul M. VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD paul@aipl.arsusda.gov

2. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (2)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Objectives  Compare national selection indexes  Document USA Net Merit index  Discuss traits that affect profit and direction of selection  Outline approach for estimating economic values

3. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (3)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Selection Theory  Progress = accuracy  intensity  genetic SD / generation interval  Multiply above by directional loss Accuracy = Corr (EBV, BV) Directional loss = Corr (e EBV, a EBV) Estimated (e) vs. actual (a) economic values  Direction may be the most important factor

4. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (4)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Direction of Selection Trait 1 Trait 2

5. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (5)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Direction of Selection Trait 1 Trait 2Accuracy contours Animals selected

6. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (6)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Trait Direction Not Clear  Concentrated (less) or diluted (more) milk?  Large or small cows?  Skinny or fat cows?  Dairy or beef or dual purpose?  Direction may be changed more quickly by replacing a population than by selecting within the population

7. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (7)P. M. VanRaden 2002 1977 USDA Prediction  “If dual-purpose selection is abandoned in Europe, there may be more advantages to international semen exchange.”  “In the future, particularly if international selection goals become more uniform, research will be needed to determine what can be gained by introducing semen of bulls from other countries into U.S. improvement programs” (R.H. Miller, 1977 JDS)

8. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (8)P. M. VanRaden 2002 National Index Comparisons  Compare proportion of emphasis (relative value / Σ|relative values|)  Review table published by Holstein International magazine  1996-2000 monthly in each issue  June 2002, approximately yearly  Examine indexes in further detail

9. Holstein International, June 2002

10. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (10)P. M. VanRaden 2002 National Selection Indexes: Yield and Health Traits Country USADEUFRANZLNLDCANGBRAUSITADNKSWE % of Interbull Population 17.415.312.310.69.34.7 4.54.34.11.5 Index NameNM$RZGISUBWDPSLPIPLIAPRPFTS – ITMI TRAIT Percent Emphasis in Index Protein36 3542354357364221 Fat21 910138141112 104 Milk5-22-14-19-20-3-4 % Protein423 % Fat122 Longevity142513101281512866 SCS / mastitis95131137101512 Fertility2137910 Other diseases23

11. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (11)P. M. VanRaden 2002 National Selection Indexes: Conformation and Management Traits Country USADEUFRANZLNLDCANGBRAUSITADNKSWE % of Interbull17.415.312.310.69.34.7 4.54.34.11.5 Index NameNM$RZGISUBWDPSLPIPLIAPRPFTS – ITMI TRAIT Percent Emphasis in Index Udder traits7881713912 Feet / legs451311659 Size-422-134-42 Dairy form3 Rump21 Final score42 Calving ease310612 Growth / meat46 Milking Speed <146 Temperament523

12. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (12)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Questions  Do cow shows and judging contests help or harm education?  What is feed cost for protein, fat?  Net rather than gross income  Does milk volume have negative value only because of quotas?  Milk volume quotas in Europe?  People quotas in Australia, NZ?

13. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (13)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Prices of Milk and Water Cost to USA consumers($ / liter) American bottled water0.16 Canadian spring water0.51 Skim milk (0.1% fat)0.66 2% milk0.68 3.25% (whole) milk0.72 French Alps water1.35 Milk requires water, cheese does not

14. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (14)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Linear vs Non-linear Profit Calculation of Net Merit $  Non-linear profit = (income – expense per lactation) number of lactations + cull value – raising cost  Linear profit obtained by taking partial derivatives at trait means  Corr (linear, non-linear) =.999

15. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (15)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Lifetime Net Merit $  Incomes and expenses estimated from yield traits, longevity, SCS, and conformation composites  Example: body size  Convert from composite to weight  Cull price - growth cost + lactations  (calves – maintenance) = $-1.28 / kg  Less beef = more profit to dairy farmer

16. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (16)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Goals of Index Calculation  Give breeders the index they want  Breed association or AI committees  Emotional approach (TPI)  Give scientists the index they want  Add incomes, subtract expenses  Mathematical approach (NM$)  Future prices difficult to prove

17. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (17)P. M. VanRaden 2002 Conclusions  Many traits in addition to yield contribute to dairy cattle profit  Longevity, fertility, and health traits have high value  Direction unclear for some traits  Indexes have improved rapidly in recent years

18. 7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (18)P. M. VanRaden 2002 History of USDA economic indexes (PD$, MFP$, CY$, and NM$) and Holstein Association TPI Year Introduced and Index Name 19711976197719801984198719891992199419972000 TraitPD$TPIMFP$TPICY$TPI NM$TPI NM$ Protein275340345043504136 Fat48464540341725171621 Milk52602760-2 6 5 % Fat20 Longevity201314 SCS 6 1 9 Udder17 11 9 7 Feet / legs 5 5 4 Size -4 Final Score4020 17 14