1. Fuel Treatment Effectiveness Fairbanks-North Star Borough CWPP Risk Assessment Update And Plan Evaluation

2. 2006/7 CWPP Exposure Modeling High Res Spot Imagery in Yellow area Landsat imagery used in blue areas Fire Departments within black boundary (Phase 1) Whole Borough mapped eventually

3. Imagery provides the missing link to emergency services responders. When responding to a fire, our fire engines only carry a road atlas, shown here. Some of roads have not been constructed. Note that the fire (shown in red) crosses two pages in the atlas, making it difficult to read and determine your location.

7. Exposure Model Components Wildfire Exposure = Hazard Fuels + Ignition Risk + Values of Concern + Suppression Ability

8. Vegetation/Fuels Information was ground truthed. Rating Included Ignition Likelihood, Values at Risk, and Suppression Difficulty Fuels Hazard based on static evaluation of each location. Not able to evaluate change based on Fuel Treatments

9. Zones of Concern Identified WUI areas rated Red: Extreme Yellow: Very High Green: High No low or moderate designations

10. Mitigation Practices Employed Fuels Reduction Silvicultural Treatments – Shaded fuelbreaks – Shearing, piling, burning Education and Outreach Improved Suppression Resources Community Planning and Preparedness Evacuation Planning and Implementation

11. Research: Cache Creek

13. Shear Blade Drum Crushing

14. Mastication Hand Falling

15. Grinding –Secondary Process

16. -Hand felled $ 2,700/ acre + $4,500/acre norm -Masticating head $4,830/ acre -Shear blade Single Pass $ 350/ acre Double Pass $ 450/ acre -Drum Chopper $ 450/ acre -Grinding $4,900/ acre Costs

19. Questions: Where will the Fire occur and will the Fuel Treatment be Effective

20. Evaluating the CWPP Mitigations Original Exposure Model can’t be used to evaluate change in fuel hazard. New one needs to consider potential spread factor. Review needs to consider changes to the landscape from wildfires as well as fuel treatments Can ecological impacts, smoke hazard, and climate change be incorporated into the planned action items?

21. Evaluating Fuel Treatment Effectiveness FLAMMAP 5 models fire spread as well as intensity. It includes spotting spread (as well as spread from surface fires and active crown fire), an important vector in Black Spruce that can breach fuel treatments. Burn Probability models spread for many fires (e.g. 10,000) and identifies the relative probability for all areas on the landscape. Stuart Creek Wood River

22. LANDFIRE Landscape above and CWPP based landscape to the right using the same color schemes to represent fuel models 2011 Hastings fire perimeter in red LANDFIRE landscape over- represents the aspen/birch (light green) spread and intensity CWPP landscape recognizes greater torching and crown fire potential in black spruce (brown). LANDSCAPE SELECTION

23. LANDFIRE Landscape above and CWPP based landscape to the right using the same color schemes to represent fuel models 2011 Hastings fire perimeter in red Modeled growth for first 3 days of Hastings Fire (5/30 to 6/1) using same inputs. LANDFIRE Analysis (left) spread was limited by light green fuel areas CWPP Analysis (below) filled out 6/1 perimeter effectively LANDSCAPE CALIBRATION

24. Winds in the Fairbanks North Star Borough Composite of 7 RAWS stations in the borough Predominately S, SW, and W winds 2004 fires moved to the west, indicating potential for high risk winds from the NE 4 Analysis wind directions (NE, S, SW, W)

25. Other Environmental Inputs Dead Fuel Moistures (no conditioning) – 1hr = 5% – 10hr = 7% (FFMC of 93) – 100hr = 8% Live Fuel Moistures – Herbaceous = 100% to represent reduced flammability in grasses and forbs soon after greenup – Woody = 90% to represent flammability in leatherleaf and spruce seedlings – Foliar Moisture = 85% to represent spring dip conditions in Black Spruce Windspeed 20mph (Midflame winds partially sheltered 6mph, unsheltered 8mph)

26. Before and After Treatment Analyses Comparing burn probability from before and after treatments are completed can identify areas of reduced risk (green shading). With 20 mph NE winds, some treatments and fire scars are more effective than others. Why?

27. Fire Sizes (distribution of the 10,000 fires from NE wind direction) 2006 (Before Fires & Treatments) Average Size 837.7 Median Size 574.4 Minimum Size 2.0 Maximum Size 6559.1 2014 (After Fires & Treatments) Average Size 686.8 Median Size 408.3 Minimum Size 2.0 Maximum Size 6609.1 20% reduction in average size 30% in median size

28. Further Analysis Calculation and comparison of Fire Length/Fire Intensity for each grid cell in the Landscape (LCP) – Not only maximum intensity (as provided in first analysis), but average and conditional values as well Combination of burn probabilities from the 4 wind directions. Addition of concentrations of human caused ignitions to further burn probability analyses.