1. Systems to Monitor and Evaluate Reconstruction Progress in Aceh World Bank Economic Development Seminar Series Jock McKeon – 27 March 2008 World Bank Tracking the money and monitoring progress

2. The rationale of post-disaster monitoring and analysis Quantify needs Determine reconstruction priorities Ascertain Government capacity Allocate funds where they are most needed Provide transparency and ability to hold agencies accountable

3. Reconstruction highlights Dec 07 US$6.8 billion allocated to projects US$4.2 billion (61% allocations) disbursed US$1.2 billion disbursed to housing Environment, Energy, and Flood Control sectors remain under-funded Significant disbursements still required for housing and transport sectors Disbursements in 2007 slower than expected

4. The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

5. Reconstruction monitoring & evaluation methodology “Tracking the Money” Reconstruction Physical Progress Social and Economic Monitoring M&E On Budget  APBN  APBD Off Budget  Donors  NGOs  # of house constructed  # of school built  # of health facilities built  Agriculture land restored  # of boat built  Inflation  Employment  Wages  Material Prices  Poverty  IDPs World Bank BRR UNORC Others BPS BI World Bank

6. The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

7. Damage and losses assessment Guided by BAPPENAS with support from international agencies Released in January 2005 to CGI www.eclac.org/mexico/documents www.worldbank.org/hazards/policy/guidelines.htm

8. Tsunami damage and losses

9. The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

10. Determining the needs – looking ahead Value of Damages Reconstruct ion needs Reconstruct ion program Financing Formula = Damages +technological improvement +relocation costs +mitigation costs +losses relating to capacity development +inflation estimate Consider:  Financing needs  Priorities for reconstruction ~ sectoral ~ geographical Consider:  Government funds  Private sector funds  Insurance reimbursement  International grants  International loans (diversion existing loans, fresh loans)

11. Make appropriate adjustments for the needs analysis

12. The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

13. World Bank expenditure tracking methodology

14. The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

15. Sectoral allocations gaps against core minimum needs (allocations minus needs)

16. Spending progress to core minimum needs (disbursements minus needs)

17. The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

18. Total commitments exceed minimum rebuilding costs: US$1.5 bn available for “building back better” CommitmentsAllocations

19. Aceh tsunami update (Dec 07): US$7.7 bn committed US$6.8 bn allocated to projects US$4.2 bn disbursed

20. Next steps? Post-conflict monitoring Continue monitoring of disbursements? (US$2.6 bn to be spent) Is there potential for Govt to adopt this reconstruction monitoring? (BAPPEDA, BPDE?)

21. Working papers Managing Post-Disaster Reconstruction Finance - International Experience in Public Financial Management Fengler W, Ihsan A, Kaiser K World Bank, 2008 Using Data for Ex-Ante Preparedness for Disaster Management - Tracking the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami reconstruction funds in Indonesia McKeon JM World Bank, 2008 Tracking Financial Flows after Disasters - Reconstruction Expenditure Tracking Analysis Methodology (RETAM) Fengler W World Bank, 2007 Tracking the Money: International Experience with Financial Information Systems and Databases for Reconstruction Agustina CD World Bank, 2007 http://go.worldbank.org/TTAEQW4DR0

22. www.worldbank.org/id/reconstruction