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Statistical clues to social injustice Danny Dorling University of Sheffield Radical Statistics Annual Conference London, February 27 th 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Statistical clues to social injustice Danny Dorling University of Sheffield Radical Statistics Annual Conference London, February 27 th 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Statistical clues to social injustice Danny Dorling University of Sheffield Radical Statistics Annual Conference London, February 27 th 2010

2 Proportions that suffer injustices of different kinds in affluent nations FractionSubjectHow LabelledDescription of group who suffer the injustice%Year A seventhChildrenDelinquentFound limited or simple at learning132006 A sixthPeopleDebarredExcluded from society in at least two ways161999/2001 A fifthAdultsDebtorsAdmit not managing to get by financially (if asked)211984-2004 A quarterHouseholdsDiscardedHave no car where car use has become assumed262006/7 A thirdFamiliesDepressedMember suffers depression or chronic anxiety disorder332000 A halfCitizensDisenfranchisedAdults who did not or could not vote in the latest US presidential elections 462008

3 Injustices, social evils, political, philosophical and public labels combined 2010 Injustice 1942 Past 1983 Political 2007 Philosophical 2008 Public ElitismIgnorance6. Differences in skills and ability 4. Threats to sense, using imagination, and thought 5. Threats to experiencing and expressing emotions freely 3. A decline in values, lack of tolerance, compassion and respect 4. Problems concerning young people, family breakdown and poor parenting ExclusionWant1. The exploitation of those who work 3. Threats to bodily integrity 9. Threats to play, ability to relax, take Sabbaths and holidays 1. Problems caused by individualism, consumerism, decline in community life 2. Excessive use of drugs and alcohol, both as consequence and causes 5. Inequality and poverty, corrosive evil in an affluent society PrejudiceIdleness (sexism and racism) 3. Unemployment 5. The economic subordination of women 6. Threats to being able to use practical reason (to be able to contribute) 7. Threats to affiliation, to belonging, having mutual respect 7. Violence and crime, child abuse and exploitation 8. Gender inequality, inequalities embedded in current thinking 9. Intolerance resulting from the beliefs of many religions, and similar ideas 10. Problems of attitudes to social diversity and immigration GreedSqualor2. The inheritance of wealth by a minority 10. Threats to having control over one’s environment (to having rights) 8. Threats to other species, lack of concern sure to backfire 6. Problems caused by big business, apathy and a democratic deficit 12. Environmental issues, selfishness and insularity DespairDisease4. Infirmity and the problems of old age 1. Threats to life 2. Threats to bodily health 11. Health problems, especially lack of care for older people

4 Children by ability in the Netherlands, according to the OECD, 2006 (%)

5 Distribution of children by ability, according to the OECD, 2006 (%)

6 School-leaving age (years) and university entry (%), Britain, 1876-2013 School leaving age University entry % years

7 Pearson goodness-of-fit test of Nobel prize by sex and subject, 1901–2008 MedicinePhysicsChemistryLiteraturePeaceEconomicsTotal Observedmen184180149948462753 women81.52.51112035 total192181.5151.51059662788 Expectedmen183.5173.4144.8100.391.759.2753 women8.58.16.74.74.32.835 total192.0181.5151.5105.096.062.0788.0 (O-E)men0.56.64.2-6.3-7.72.80.0 women-0.5-6.6-4.26.37.7-2.80.0 total0.0 (O-E)²/Emen0.00150.24820.12350.40010.65240.12801.55 women0.03275.34072.65798.608714.03542.753833.43 total0.035.592.789.0114.692.8834.98

8 Male and female Nobel (and economics) laureates, by subject, 1901-2008

9 Female Nobel laureates (%), by decade, worldwide, 1901-2009

10 Proportion of households poor by different measures (%), Britain, 1999

11 Pearson goodness-of-fit test of Karl Pearson’s pauper data, 1891 Paupers(P)normal(N)binomial(B)data(D)B-D(B-D)²(B-D)²/B -200000 -150000 -100000 -50200 0410* 501042 100191820110.043 150374447-390.205 2006373 000.000 2508390 000.000 300971051005250.238 350979290240.043 4008375 000.000 4506355 000.000 500373640-4160.444 55021202110.050 600101211110.083 65045510.143 700211 750011 800000 850001* 900000 950000 1000000 Total632 1.250

12 Geographical distribution of paupers, England and Wales, 1891

13 Exclusively Wealthy Core Poor Non-poor non-wealthy Asset wealthy Circling from exclusion to inclusion and back again (model)

14 Distribution of income inequality (US$), worldwide, 2000

15 Real growth per decade in GDP (%), per person, by continent, 1955-2001

16 Households’ ability to get by on their income in Britain, 1984-2004

17 Mortality inequality of decile groups by area Geographical concentration of national Conservative vote by area [c] National income share of best-off 1% Year Excess of worse-off 30% (a) Advantage if best-off 10% (b)pre-tax (d)post-tax (e) 191829%35%19% 17% 192226%30%14%18%16% 192326%30%12%19%17% 192425%28%11%18%16% 192923%25%9%17%15% 193123%26%9%16%14% 193529%31%10%14%13% 194525% 7%13%10% 195020%18%7%12%7% 195120%18%7%12%6% 195523%21%7%9%6% 195925%23%6%9%6% 196424%21%7%9%6% 196622%20%8%9%6% 197021%18%8%7%5% 1974 February 20% 17%8%7%4% 1974 October 20% 17%11%6%4% 197921%19%9%6%4% 198323%21%11%7%5% 198725%22%12%8%6% 199226%25%12%10%8% 199730%29%14%12%10% 200130% 15%13%10% 200530% 16% 13% Inequalities of health, privilege and wealth, in Britain, 1918-2005 (%)

18 Inequalities in survival chances to age 65 by area in Britain, 1920-2006

19 Concentration of Conservative votes, British general elections, 1918-2005

20 Share of all income received by the richest 1% in Britain, 1918-2005

21 England and Wales’s net immigration by birth year, 1840-2080

22 Households by number of cars, and those with no cars in Britain, 2006/07

23 Additional debt added annually by sector, US, 1977-2008 (US$ billion) Household debt All debt HomeConsumerTotalHouseholdsBusinessState & localFederalFinancial sectors Datemortgagecredit DebtTotal governmentsgovernmentDomesticForeign 1977863638812811720565414 19781064648916013939537524 19791174349817015927369115 198090344010813522777324 19816720538106190288610524 1982471954984153421619316 1983105486951761654718510417 198412782958219323531971588 19851828411643142561642262041 19861995611852612957421632910 1987222321016264221901442916 1988216471042272307501552507 1989225479202832084714622510 1990199158922321314724721124 1991174-9641184-849127815615 19921719775199-71730423924 199315761923238105825629270 19941671351029323145-46156462-11 19951541471197310285-6114444078 19962061061336336273-2114551488 1997216701458301439512357470 199830297207142656767-53102737 1999380112209049558237-71102719 2000386177173558456017-29680763 20015071512016672381106-6874-11 2002706108238583118014425887993 20038601042786984177120396106742 200493811531261061455115362978155 2005104195355311716771723071114113 2006964104402511698891511831301331 2007652134439584912281862371771124 2008-46442728515074812391040-158 Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients with annual federal government borrowing 0.01-0.240.29-0.010.010.201.000.19-0.29

24 Outstanding consumer debt as a proportion of disposable income, US, 1975-2005

25 Poverty, car exhaust emissions and pollution inhaled in Britain, by area, 1999

26 Social security and taxation prosecutions, Australia, counts, 1989-2003

27 Debt payments as a percentage of disposable income, US, 1980-2008

28 Study numberPlace Year of birth Age at interviewObs Rates (%) Age<13 Rates aged 13-18 (%) Original Study, first author and citation BothGirlsBoys 1*Isle of Wight 54–55 14–15 483 3.2 Rutter (Graham & Rutter, 1973) 2USA 65–74 10–20 776 2.5 3.7 7.6 1.6 Cohen (Velez, Johnson, & Cohen, 1989) 3USA 65–74 10–20 776 3.1 Cohen (Velez et al., 1989) 4USA 66–75 15–24 1769 7 12.4 1.5 Kessler(Kessler & Walters, 1998) 5USA 66–75 15–24 1769 13 21.5 4.4 Kessler (Kessler & Walters, 1998) 6Canada 66–79 6–16 2852.6 1.8 2.3 1.2 Fleming (Fleming, Offord, & Boyle, 1989) 7Puerto Rico 68–80 4–16 386 Bird (Bird et al., 1988) 8*USA 69–74 14–18 1710 2.9 3.8 2 Lewinsohn (Lewinsohn et al., 1993) 9USA 69–74 14–18 1710 3.2 3.7 2.6 Lewinsohn (Lewinsohn, Rohde, & Seeley, 1998) 10*USA 71–72 13 792 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 Anderson (Anderson, Williams, McGee, & Silva, 1987) 11NZ 71–72 15 792 2.8 4.4 1.2 Hankin (Hankin et al., 1998) 12USA 71 8 70 1.5 Kashani (Kashani, Orvaschel, Rosenberg, & Reid, 1989) 13USA 76 12 70 1.5 Kashani (Kashani et al., 1989) 14USA 80 17 70 5.7 Kashani (Kashani et al., 1989) 15USA 73–77 7–11 300.8 Costello (Costello et al., 1988b) 16USA 73–77 12–17 300 5.4 Costello (Costello, Angold, & Keeler, 1999) 17USA 73–81 9–17 336 3.4 6 5.6 6.4 Angold (Angold et al., 2002) 18USA 73–81 9–17 542.7 2.1 3.4.8 Angold (Angold et al., 2002) 19USA 74–82 9–17 1285 Shaffer (Shaffer et al., 1996) 20USA 74–83 8–16 2762.4 2.4 2.1 Simonoff (Simonoff et al., 1997) 21Netherlands 75–80 13–18 780 3.6 Verhulst (Verhulst, van der Ende, Ferdinand, & Kasius, 1997) 22Canada 75–82 12–19 1847 2.6 12.5 6.2 Cairney (Cairney, 1998) 23NZ 77 15 986 6.3 9.2 3.3 Fergusson (Fergusson, Horwood, & Lynskey, 1993) 24NZ 77 18 1011 18.2 26.5 9.7 Fergusson (Fergusson & Horwood, 2001) 25Switzerland 78–82 15–19 203.6 5.3 9.8 1.1 Steinhausen (Steinhausen & Winkler Metzke, 2003) 26USA 78–83 12–17 4023 13.9 7.4 Kilpatrick (Kilpatrick et al., 2003) 27Switzerland 78–87 7–16 1964.3 2.4.0 Steinhausen(Steinhausen & Winkler Metzke, 2003) 28Sweden 79–81 16–17 231 1.4 2.2.6 Olsson (Olsson & von Knorring, 1999) 29*USA-Anglo 79–82 12–15 558 4.3 4.5 4.0 Doi (Doi, Roberts, Takeuchi, & Suzuki, 2001) 30 *USA-African- American 79–82 12–15 665 6.1 6.5 5.7 Doi (Doi et al., 2001) 31 *USA-Mexican- American 79–82 12–15 429 9.0 11.4 6.3 Doi (Doi et al., 2001) 32*Japan 79–82 12–15 494 1.3.9 1.8 Doi (Doi et al., 2001) 33Germany 80–83 14–16, 16–19 1395 8.0 10.2 5.8 Oldehinkel (Oldehinkel, Wittchen, & Schuster, 1999) 34USA 80–84 9–16 4984 1.9 3.1 4.2 1.9 Costello (Costello et al., 1996) 35USA 80–84 9–16 1691 1.1 3.0 4.2 1.9 Costello (Costello et al., 1996) 36Finland 81 8–9 278 3.2 Almqvist (Almqvist, Kumpulainen et al., 1999) 37Finland 81 8–9 278 5.9 Almqvist (Almqvist, Kumpulainen et al., 1999) 38Finland 81 8–9 255 7.8 Almqvist (Almqvist, Puura et al., 1999) 39Finland 81 8–9 180 4.7 Almqvist (Almqvist, Puura et al., 1999) 40Australia 81–92 6–17 3597 2.3 4.0 4.7 3.4 Sawyer(Sawyer et al., 2001) 41Puerto Rico 82–96 4–17 1886 2.1 5.8 9.7 2.0 Canino (Canino et al., 2004) (and personal communication) 42GB 84–94 5–15 10438.3 2.5 Ford (Ford, Goodman, & Meltzer, 2003) 43Brazil 86–89 11–14 625.2 1.9 Fleitlich-Bilyk(Fleitlich-Bilyk & Goodman, 2004) 44Brazil 90–93 7–10 625.2 Fleitlich-Bilyk (Fleitlich-Bilyk & Goodman, 2004) 45*USA 90–93 11–12 508 3.0 Van der Stoep (personal communication) Studies of adolescent depression available for meta- analysis, 1973-2006 Study numberPlace Year of birth Age at interviewObs Rates (%) Age<13 Original Study, first author and citation BothGirlsBoys

29 Adolescent girls assessed as depressed (%), North America, 1984-2001

30 Male/female mortality ratio by age in the rich world, 1850–1999

31 The fractal nature of geographical divides, North– South/West– East, Britain, 2010

32 The crash: US mortgage debt, 1977-2009 (% change and US$ billion)

33 The rate of prescribing anti- depressants by the NHS in Scotland, 1992-2006

34 Credits Slideshow created by Benjamin Hennig The tables and figures from this presentation will soon be available from: http://www.policypress.co.uk/ http://www.policypress.co.uk/ (search for ‘injustice’ in the search box) The fully animated version of this slideshow is available as a PowerPoint document on http://sheffield.ac.uk/geography/staff/dorling_danny/lectures.html


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