1. IPM Assessment and Risk: Framing the Issues and Vocabulary Scott M. Swinton Dept. of Agricultural Economics Michigan State University 4 th National IPM Symposium, Indianapolis, Apr. 8-10, 2003

2. “Assessment” for what purpose? To motivate adoption of IPM methods To evaluate the effects of investments in IPM

3. Assessment to motivate adoption Motivation programs aim to encourage by –Showing that goal is do-able –Rewarding progress Industry-driven scoring systems of IPM assess to motivate adoption –Lots of points, so everyone feels successful –No negative points

4. IPM point scoring system: Mass. IPM Guidelines for Potato Crop rotation20 Cover crop10 Sprayer calibrated10 Bt  ½ insect spray 15 Attended workshop 5 Owns veg mgt guide 10 …….. 320 POINTS IN ALL –Pest, soil/water & education categories for points Used for certification Program assessment questions: –How much IPM is 180 of 320 points? –Do all combinations of 180 points have same effect on pesticide use? Net income? Source: C. Hollingsworth et al. (1996)

5. Assessment to evaluate programs Evaluations seek to determine –Progress toward specific goals –Measurement of program net benefits Public program assessments –Need clear, simple IPM definitions –Should be impartial –Can be threatening to those engaged in programs –Feedback permits learning about what works and what doesn’t, leading to better use of public funds

6. Risk in IPM assessment Risk matters in all IPM dimensions –Profitability –Health –Environmental “Risk” can refer to –Danger (in an average sense) –Probability of undesired outcome

7. “Risk” as a danger “There’s a 2% risk of a damaging pest infestation.” –2% is a mean point estimate of danger –Many factors affect probability of pest infestation 02%4%6%

8. “Risk” in probabilistic sense “Biological control may increase risk of damaging pest infestation.” –Refers to dispersion of probability distribution (from Pa to Pb) 02%4%6% PbPb PaPa Note: Mean of Pa = mean of Pb = 2%

9. Avoiding Tower of Babel Let’s be clear about intent in referring to “risk” and “assessment” What about definitions of IPM? Even more clarity needed!