1. Lifecycle Modeling EPA Modeling Workshop EPA Office of Mobile Sources May 26, 1999 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

2. What is lifecycle modeling? zSpreadsheet-based computer model zAccounts for all energy and emissions, throughout a production process zFor fuels, this includes: yfuel feedstock production yfeedstock transport yfuel processing yfuel distribution to the retail outlet

3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Gasoline Production Process

4. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ethanol Production Process

5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Lifecycle modeling goals zIncorporate entire production process y“explicitly recognizes connections between all dimensions” zIdentify key processes, emission sources zAllow equitable comparison between products (i.e. fuels) zSuggest areas for improvement zflexible and user-friendly

6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency How is lifecycle modeling done? zData is gathered, or assumed, for each step in each process zEquations are compiled to account for entire process for each product zTracks all materials in and out zAccounts for emissions and energy zResults depend on input data, variables, and assumptions

7. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Lifecycle Modeling - EtOH example EthanolProcessing Ethanol Fuel Distribution Corn Fermentation Coal/Corn Stover Process Energy Process EnergyElectricity Outputs CornTransport Renewable Ethanol Truck Diesel trucks CornFarming Corn P:N:K Fertilizer Diesel farm equip.

8. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Approaches to lifecycle modeling Users?Purpose? SuggestImprovement? Model inputs? Model outputs? Scope? Policy analysts Make general comparisons based on industry averages or assumptions of future No industry-wide estimates industry-wide projections for fuel/feedstock combinations life-cycle including fuel combustion in vehicle Current

9. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Approaches to lifecycle modeling Users?Purpose? SuggestImprovement? Model inputs? Model outputs? Scope? Policy analysts Make general comparisons based on industry averages or assumptions of future No industry-wide estimates industry-wide projections for fuel/feedstock combinations life-cycle including fuel combustion in vehicle fuel producers To track actual emissions of individual fuel plants Yes actual data for indiv plants plant-specific GHG emissions assoc with individual plants life-cycle excluding fuel combustion in vehicle CurrentNEW

10. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Data Needs zWide range of data needed, and sources zNot always readily available ydata not measured or recorded yconfidentiality issues zVaries somewhat, depending on approach zVaries by fuel zVaries by process step

11. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Data Needs By Step: zFeedstock development ymost complicated step ynot directly controlled by fuel producers yprobably cannot rely totally on national defaults zFeedstock Trans - national ave, or regional zFuel Processing - controlled by producer zFuel Distribution - minor, base on estimates

12. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Electricity Production Process

13. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Modeling Issues zComplexity, level of detail zData sources ydetermining best sources yhow much to estimate yhow to ensure accuracy zHandling of secondary fuels used zSynergistic impact of upstream and downstream changes

14. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Questions for Stakeholders zWhat are the goals for lifecycle modeling of alternative fuels? zWhat are the best available data sources? zHow do we standardize methodology? zHow do we ensure accuracy? zHow can lifecycle modeling inform policy decisions?