1. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Short GRBs and Mergers: Astrophysical constraints on a BH-NS and NS-NS origin Richard O’Shaughnessy [V. Kalogera, C. Kim, K. Belczynski, T. Fragos] APS, April 16, 2007

2. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Outline: Internal Key points –Context: Short GRBs Reviewed (1/2 slides) What are short GRBs Their immense potential -- for LIGO, and for improving our understandng Why will LIGO be important to understanding them Will LIGO see anything to help? (aside: nondetection may be important) –Initial LIGO : No –“Enhanced LIGO” : Maybe, coincident detection with Swift/GLAST unlikely –Advanced LIGO : Yes –Basic promises: Past vs present, calculation context (2 slides) Prior work: Milky Way popsyn, time-independent (stationary), constraints with PSRs + review: Milky Way not everything –Do a “Milky Way” predictions -- emphasize important for improving our knowledge of popsy, but not relevant to LIGO or to short GRBs Present work: Whole-universe merger rate predictions (don’t mention details of SFR - no time), time- dependent –GRB test slides (3) Big kahuna: Rates -- do the numbers work? (put Lmin, rate slides, etc) Redshifts : BH-NS : the comparison possible, but biases from observations Hosts? –Conclusions

3. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Outline Short GRBs : A Review –Intersection with LIGO Population synthesis predictions –Milky Way astro-ph/0610076; 0609465 –Universe Could short GRBs be mergers? –Detection rates consistent? –Redshift distribution, hosts?

4. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Short GRBs: A Review Short GRBs One of two (?) classes Cosmological distances –Low redshift selection effect? Hard: often peaks out of band Flux power law dP/dL ~ L -2 --> most (probably) unseen Many sources at limit of detector (BATSE) [Berger et al, astro-ph/0611128 ]astro-ph/0611128

5. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Short GRBs: A Review Merger motivation? No SN structure in afterglow In both old, young galaxies Occasional host offsets GRB 051221 (Soderberg et al 2006) Young NSs are some (known) Energetics suggest not all GRB 050709 (Fox et al Nature 437 845)

6. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Short GRBs: Review Gravitational waves essential –Central engine? : Certainty requires gravitational waves See inspiral Check masses –Coincident observation powerful [e.g., merger-burst delay time; opening angle constraints; masses; NS radius; …] –Nondetection still useful [e.g., find fraction of short bursts from NS alone nearby] Short GRBs : potentially powerful tool? –Constrain channels: Short GRBs >> 10/yr; #(NS-NS)=4

7. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Popsyn and Milky Way Population synthesis Controlled uncertainties --> wide but limited range of predictions Milky Way: A test ~ steady state system (average merger rate) Compare to observations (several Kim et al) (NS-NS binaries + known selection effects) –Observation: shaded –Theory: dotted curve –Systematics : dark shaded Limited set (9%) consistent –Complicated, extended 7d volume –Lots of physics can be mined More binaries/mass astro-ph/0610076

8. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Inhomogeneous universe: The reality –Time-dependent, multicomponent SFR –Use delay time distribution (dP/dt ~ 1/t) –Long delays matter Sample multicomponent predictions: Merger rate in spirals (NS-NS) From recent Plot: Birth time for present-day mergers Popsyn and Universe Merging after 2nd supernova Merging after 10 Gyr

9. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Popsyn and Universe: LIGO When will LIGO see mergers? [supporting slide] [based on single-IFO NS range 15 Mpc and average chirp masses over all models] Extrapolating from Milky Way:Whole universe: about the same (revised version astro-ph/0610076)(mature draft to be submitted; NOT REVIEWED/PRELIMINARY) Initial Advanced NS-NS BH-NS

10. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Can short GRBs be mergers? Test 1: Are there enough mergers? … so far, usually yes: Plot: All-sky detection rate vs predictions, if + No bursts fainter than seen + All sky coverage & no beaming … but surprising if detectors “fine-tuned” many should be missed BH-NS NS-NS

11. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Can short GRBs be mergers? Test 2: Are they distributed consistently in redshift? (NS-NS shown) Predictions & observations Key Solid: 25-75% Dashed: 10-90% Dotted: 1%-99% O’Shaughnessy et al (in prep) Matching redshifts Observed NS-NS (Milky Way) All agree? - possible - special parameters needed (~1/100)

12. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Can short GRBs be mergers? NS-NS?: Physical interpretation –Observations : GRBs Dominated by recent events –Expect: Recent spirals dominate or or Ellipticals dominate, with long delays O’Shaughnessy et al (in prep) -Observations: Galactic NS-NS High merger rate -Expect -High merger rate in spirals Consistent so far Mostly in ellipticals Mostly in spirals Plot: f s : fraction of mergers in spirals (z=0)

13. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Conclusions Useful comparison method despite large uncertainties Preliminary results –Via comparing to pulsar binaries in Milky Way –Via comparing to short GRBs? Conventional popsyn works : weak constraints-> standard model ok Expect GRBs in either host : spirals form stars now –Spirals now favored; may change with new redshifts! Short GRBs = NS-NS? hard: few consistent ellipticals Short GRBs = BH-NS? easier: fewer observations Observational recommendations

14. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Supporting slides follow LIGO and short GRBs : Nondetection still useful Swift detection biases

15. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Nondetection still useful SGRs are GRBs Known galactic/nearby source : SGR 1806 Unknown (small?) contribution to short GRB rate LIGO can “distinguish”: Short GRB nearby (e.g., <15 Mpc) –Merger : Detectable –SGR : Marginally/not detectable Application –Assist host galaxy searches (i.e., minimum distance to merger) –estimate SGR contribution

16. LIGO- G070249-00-0 From recent Plot: Birth time for present-day mergers Importance of early SFR Long delays allow mergers in ellipticals now Merger rate from starburst: R ~ dN/dt~1/t SFR higher in past: Result: –Many mergers now occur in ancient binaries Nagamine et al astro-ph/0603257\astro-ph/0603257\ From old ancient SFR = ellipticals (mergers, …)

17. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Outline Predictions and Constraints: Milky Way Why Ellipticals Matter Predictions and Constraints Revisited GRBs –Review + the short GRB merger model –Short GRB observations, the long-delay mystery, and selection effects –Detection rates versus L min –Predictions versus observations: If short GRB = BH-NS If short GRB = NS-NS –Gravitational waves? Conclusions

18. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Observables: Detection rate? Binary pulsars Many (isolated) observed Minimum luminosity ~ known Observed number --> rate (+ ‘small’ error) Short GRBs Few observations Minimum luminosity ~ unknown Observed number --> rate upper bound Conclusion: The number (rate) of short GRB observations is a weak constraint on models observed Plots: Cartoon on L min

19. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Merger predictions short GRBs? BH-NS?: Predictions: –500 pairs of simulations –Range of redshift distributions Observations: –Solid: certain –Shaded: possible O’Shaughnessy et al (in prep) Key Solid: 25-75% Dashed: 10-90% Dotted: 1%-99%

20. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Merger predictions short GRBs? BH-NS?: Predictions that agree? –Compare cumulative distributions: maximum difference < 0.48 everywhere –Compare to well-known GRB redshifts since 2005 dominated by low redshift O’Shaughnessy et al (in prep) [95% Komogorov-Smirnov given GRBs] [consistent selection effects] Result: Distributions which agree = mostly at low redshift

21. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Merger predictions short GRBs? BH-NS?: Physical interpretation –Observations : Dominated by recent events –Expect: Most mergers occur in spirals (=recent SFR) and High rate (per unit mass) forming in spirals or Most mergers occur in ellipticals (=old SFR) and High rate (per unit mass) forming in elliptical and Extremely prolonged delay between formation and merger (RARE) O’Shaughnessy et al (in prep) Mostly in ellipticals Mostly in spirals Plot: f s : fraction of mergers in spirals (z=0)

22. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Conclusions Future (model) directions: More comparisons –Milky Way Pulsar masses Binary parameters (orbits!) Supernova kick consistency? –Extragalactic Supernova rates Some examples: Belczynski et al. (in prep) Broader model space –Polar kicks? –Different maximum NS mass [important: BH-NS merger rate sensitive to it!] –Different accretion physics Goal: - show predictions robust to physics changes - if changes matter, understand why (and devise tests to constrain physics)

23. LIGO- G070249-00-0 Appendix: Timeline Timeline to inspiral detection Timeline & funding –LIGO / VIRGO: NSF+Europe –LISA: NASA 2007 2008200920102011201220132014 Initial LIGO (S5)Enhanced LIGO (S6) (x2 range!) Advanced LIGO Sources: LIGO : Marx, Texas Symposium (G060579)+ G060358; VIRGO: tentative -- coordination pending; Valiente GWDAW 2006GWDAW 2006 VIRGO?? VIRGO+VIRGO LISA: NASA Beyond Einstein review (2006)NASA Beyond Einstein review …build LISA Possible detection Good science even w/o Detection assured LIGO today Advanced LIGO ~2014 Enhanced LIGO ~2009