1. http://www.100people.org/statistics_100stats.php?section=statistics http://desip.igc.org/mapanim.html Watch the world grow http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/world_population/ Teaching human population animation http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDK1OaFvtls Hans brief mortality; Statistics in Motion http://www.poodwaddle.com/clocks/worldclock/ Statistics http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHmwZ96_Gos&feature=player_embedded 5 min version of shift happens (better music) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMcfrLYDm2U&feature=player_embedded 8:19 version of shift happens, original; better for pops (slow music) http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_and_the_magic_washing_machine Hans washing machine

2. Number of species identified: ~1.8 million Scientists aren’t really sure how many species there are on the planet. Approximately 1.8 million plant & animal species have been identified, but there are many more scientists estimate still exist. 5 million (low) – 100 million (high) estimate

3. Will Humans Ever Go Extinct?

5. Adaptations help an organism maximize the success, but all organisms struggle… What are some things that limit a population? – These are called limiting factors The resources available in an ecosystem determine the maximum population that can be supported by the environment over a long period of time – This is called the carrying capacity

6. Analyzing your data 1.Graph the class’s data. – What type of graph do you want? 2.Draw in a horizontal line (make it dotted) to represent carrying capacity – This line is called K – If you remember, specialists are also called K strategist. Can you now explain how this all connects? 3. Discuss the conclusion questions with your group and be ready to share.

7. Pd 1- Deer Data Year# of Deer 113 222 34 48 516 6 714 820 98 1014 1114 1220 138 1416 1516 1.Graph the class’s data. What type of graph do you want? 2.Draw in a horizontal line (make it dotted) to represent carrying capacity This line is called K If you remember, specialists are also called K strategist. Can you now explain how this all connects?

8. Pd 2- Deer Data 1.Graph the class’s data. What type of graph do you want? 2.Draw in a horizontal line (make it dotted) to represent carrying capacity This line is called K If you remember, specialists are also called K strategist. Can you now explain how this all connects? Year# of Deer 112 218 310 418 510 616 710 818 914 1016 1114 1216

9. Pd 3 - Deer Data 1.Graph the class’s data. What type of graph do you want? 2.Draw in a horizontal line (make it dotted) to represent carrying capacity This line is called K If you remember, specialists are also called K strategist. Can you now explain how this all connects? Year# of Deer 118 26 310 412 5 616 710 816 910 1118 126 1312 14 1514

10. What’s the difference?

11. History of population growth

12. World Vital Events per Time Unit TIME UNITBIRTHSDEATHSNatural INCREASE Year133,353,79855,532,96377,820,835 Day364,355151,729212,625 Minute253105148 Second4.21.82.5

13. Populations Is a J-shaped growth curve sustainable? What factors will limit it? What are the benefits of having a large population? What are the drawbacks of having a large population? How have humans (K-strategists) achieved a J- shaped curve instead of an S?

14. 1 2 3

15. Top countries 36% of world population 4.5%

17. What’s the Earth’s carrying capacity?

18. Don’t forget: You can copy- paste this slide into other presentations, and move or resize the poll.

19. Do we need population controls? A. There are WAY too many people B. People should adopt. C. One kid per family is enough D. Statistical replacement at 2.1 is OK. E. If you can afford to support them and instill in them strong environmental values, then why limit it? F. Fundamentally it is none of your or anyone else's business.

20. Population Equilibrium BirthsDeaths Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)

21. Annual growth rate = how much the population will grow next year – US population growth rate…0.963% – World growth rate…1.096% Adds 2.4 people every second

22. What’s this showing?

23. Global Fertility Rates Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – Average # of children that a woman has during her fertile years. – Actual, real number…”does have” – United States = 2.06; World = 2.45 (in 1950 = 4.95) Replacement Level Fertility – # of children needed to replace their parents – Projected number... “should have” – 2.1 in developed countries; 2.5 in developing countries

24. ZPG Zero Population Growth – Birth = Death – Immigrants = Emigrants – Population growth rate = 0% Ideal to which all countries should aspire?

25. Factors Affecting Birth & Fertility Rates Increasing Factors – Children in labor force – Rural areas – Lack of birth control – Religious/cultural values against birth control – Lack of abortion access – Younger than 25 at marriage – Few jobs for women – Lack of educational opportunities Decreasing Factors – Low infant mortality rate – Educational & job opportunities for women – Affluence – Cost of raising children – Urbanization – Older than 25 at marriage – Availability of pension systems

26. DEVELOPED VS DEVELOPING What does each mean?

27. AGE STRUCTURE DIAGRAMS

28. Age Structure Diagrams The % of males & females in the total population divided by age groups: – 0 - 14 yrs = Pre-Productive ages – 15 - 44 yrs = Reproductive ages – 45 - older yrs = Post-Reproductive ages ***The MAJOR determining factor of a country’s future population growth is: – the number of pre-productive people! (Under 15 yrs).

29. Is this population growing or shrinking?

31. Where are the baby boomers? http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/summaries.html

32. Projecting Future Populations: Developed Countries

33. Population Projections: Developing Nations Remember, what percent of the total population is developing?

34. Graying Populations Russia: -0.6%; -22% Belarus -0.6%; -12% Bulgaria -0.5%; -34% Latvia -0.5%; -23% Lithuania -0.4%; -15% Hungary -0.3%; -11% Romania -0.2%; -29% Estonia -0.2%; -23% Moldova -0.2%; -21% Croatia -0.2%; -14% Germany -0.2%; -9% Czech Republic -0.1%; -8% Japan 0%; -21% Poland 0%; -17% Slovakia 0%; -12% Austria 0%; 8% increase Italy 0%; -5% Slovenia 0%; -5% Greece 0%; -4%

35. Disadvantages to declining populations Increased demand for – Medical care – Social Security – Public services 2.5 elderly to every 1 young person U.S. = 31.9% projected tax rate to pay for services. Italy = 71.5% payroll tax Labor shortages – Alleviated by automation or immigration

36. DEVELOPED VS DEVELOPING What does each mean?

37. Economic Growth An increase in the capacity to provide goods & services for people’s final use. Measured as GDP (gross domestic product) Current $ amount of goods & services provided within a country Two ways to increase economic growth – Increase the CONSUMPTION of goods – Increase the population with needs These are at odds with sustainability

39. Developing vs. Developed Per capita GDP <$4,000 Low to moderate industrialization Rural, agricultural, illiterate, poor 80% of world’s population – 50% of population is under age 15 – 15% of wealth – 10-20% of resource usage Per capita GDP >$4,000 Highly industrialized Urban, industrial, educated, & wealthy 20% of world’s population – 85% of wealth – 80 - 90% of resource usage – 75% of the pollution (90% of hazardous waste)

40. Tragedy of the Commons

41. Congratulations!! You’ve just won $1,000,000!! How can you sustain your wealth? – What’s that mean? – You never run out of that original 1 million Assume you invest this 1 million w/10% interest. How much can you spend annually and live sustainably? – $100,000….why? – What if you spend $200,000 a year? How soon will your money be gone?

42. What is it? Commons = areas of land that belong to whole village People grazed cows/sheep there – put as many animals as they could “If I don’t use this resource someone else will”

44. So, what’s the problem? Short term interests of individuals vs. Long term well being of society

45. Begins with unregulated access to a resource owned by no one. Harvest based on largest amount over the shortest period of time. No thought given to sustainable harvests. Usually ends with no resource for anyone. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuIxDMj3DNA What happened?

46. Common property resources  – Owned by no one (or everyone) for free “If I don’t use this resource someone else will” Commons = Clean air, open ocean, fish, migratory birds, public lands Tragedy of the Commons

47. Sustainable Society – meeting the needs of the present without damaging the environment or depleting a resource for future generations Earth Capital = Earth’s air, water, soil, wildlife, minerals, fossil fuels…etc… Living Sustainably

48. Sustaining Earth’s Capital  Much like a bank scenario, we have 3 choices: 1.Spend all your capital and go broke 2.Only spend your interest 3.Spend some capital, but replace it Earth capital = Topsoil, water, air, forests, grasslands, biodiversity…. these are worth more than $$$$$$$$ The sun regenerates these – ~million year interest rate Earth can be sustained IF we do not deplete the capital …If we deplete these resources, they are GONE.

49. Thinking SMARTER and LONG-TERM!

50. Sustainability meeting the needs of the present without damaging the environment or depleting a resource for future generations

51. Where does the most pressure come from?

52. What did you do to regulate the number of fish you caught? Private ownership Users pay approach Regulated access – Use resources at rates below sustainable yield – Fairness in access rights – Common consent of the regulated Preventing a Tragedy of the Commons

53. A little review…True or False? 1. The important minerals on which modern civilization depends constitute a relatively large part of Earth’s crust. 2.Solar energy is the most important renewable, or sustained-yield, energy source. 3.One problem with geothermal energy is that most of Earth’s heat is far too deep to tap artificially. 4.It is estimated that the oil supply will decline to near exhaustion by the year 2070. 5.According to recent studies, the major factor in limiting population and industrial growth will be consumption of resources by an increased population. 6.Although oil in the United States will probably be consumed in less than 100 years, coalfields can probably sustain that country’s rate of energy consumption for several hundred years. 7. Earth’s major oil and gas fields are found on the continental shields where organic materials in these ancient rocks has had enough time to change to petroleum and natural gas.

54. Answers 1.False 2.True 3.True 4.True 5.True 6.True 7.False (much younger rocks)

55. CHINA’S 1-CHILD POLICY

57. Socialist dictatorship – 1960’s realized only option to population control was mass starvation! Instituted social coercion plan – Free birth control, abortions, & sterilizations – Encouraged to marry at later age & only 1 kid Between 1972 – 2000 – Crude birth rate drop 50% – TFR dropped from 5.7 to 1.8 China’s Population Control

58. Couples who pledged only one child: – Extra food – Larger pensions – Better housing – Free medical care – Salary bonuses – Free school tuition – Preferential treatment in employment markets China’s One Child Policy

59. Effectiveness – 81% of married women in China are using modern contraception – Increased employment opportunities for women Problems – Girls are aborted, killed, and neglected – 2007 – do not have equal number of sexes China’s One Child Policy