1. 12/5/2015 1 Norman Walzer andBrian Harger Senior Research ScholarResearch Associate Presented to Downstate Summit: Creating a Common Voice September 29, 2011 Effingham, Illinois Trends, Issues & Potential Downstate Illinois Center for Governmental Studies

2. Overview Population Trends – 2000 to 2010 – Changes in Percentage Elderly – 2010 to 2020 Similarities Between Downstate/Metro/Rural Trends in Illinois and Surrounding States Motivations for Collaboration Downstate Responses 12/5/2015 2 Center for Governmental Studies

3. Population Change 2000 to 2010 12/5/2015 3 Center for Governmental Studies

4. Population Change 2000 to 2010 Age 65 Years and Older 12/5/2015 4 Center for Governmental Studies

5. Population Change 2010 to 2020 12/5/2015 5 Center for Governmental Studies

6. Illinois Population Trends by County 1990, 2000, 2010 Area NameGrowth to LossLoss to LossLoss to Growth Growth to Growth Chicago Metropolitan Area (Percent of 9 counties) 1 (11.1) -- 8 (88.9) Downstate Metropolitan Areas (Percent of 27 Counties) 4 (14.8) 5 (18.5) 2 (7.4) 16 (59.3) Downstate Non-Metropolitan Areas (Percent of 66 counties) 28 (42.4) 20 (30.3) 8 (12.1) 10 (15.2) Total (Percent of 102 counties) 33 (32.4) 25 (24.5) 10 (9.8) 34 (33.3) 12/5/2015 6 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial Census of Population and Housing 1990, 2000, 2010. Center for Governmental Studies

7. Age Trends by County 2000 to 2020 Area Name Median Age (Percent 65 Years of Age and Older) 200020102020 Chicago Metropolitan Area 33.4 (10.8) 35.2 (10.7) 35.6 (11.3) Downstate Metropolitan Areas 37.1 (13.6) 39.7 (13.9) 40.2 (16.7) Downstate Non-Metropolitan Areas 38.4 (16.4) 41.6 (17.0) 41.7 (19.8) State of Illinois 34.7 (12.1) 36.3 (12.5) 37.1 (15.0) 12/5/2015 7 Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial Census of Population and Housing 2000, 2010; Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2020. Center for Governmental Studies

8. Industry Employment, 2000 and 2010 (Illinois and Surrounding States) Industry State of Illinois Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin Rural Counties Micropolitan Counties Metropolitan Counties State Rural Counties Micropolitan Counties Metropolitan Counties Region Manufacturing 2000 44,87880,700754,181879,759312,261432,7951,474,8452,219,901 2010 28,96952,239487,561568,769232,746287,6611,026,3051,546,712 Percent Change -35.4-35.3-35.4-35.3-25.5-33.5-30.4-30.3 Wholesale and Retail Trade 2000 43,81490,809968,2811,102,904282,622328,3541,665,4572,276,433 2010 39,69986,354865,623991,676268,772308,1011,530,6572,107,530 Percent Change -9.4-4.9-10.6-10.1-4.9-6.2-8.1-7.4 Services 2000 82,744187,7122,539,8602,810,316512,559633,6153,813,8064,959,980 2010 83,899194,2962,862,3753,140,570575,925736,3164,394,1485,706,389 Percent Change 1.43.512.711.812.416.215.215.0 12/5/2015 8 The U.S. Office of Management and Budget defines metropolitan and micropolitan areas. The definitions used for calculations in this table were released June 30, 2003. Data Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2011. Center for Governmental Studies

9. Average Wage per Job, 1980 to 2008 Illinois Regions 12/5/2015 9 Gap $2,185 Gap $1,276 Gap $3,977 Gap $2,136 Center for Governmental Studies

10. Motivations for Collaboration Continued Population Declines in Downstate Rural Rural Areas will Lose Representation Non-metro Depends on Metro for Jobs Elderly Need Access to Health Care Youth Desire Access to High-Paying Employment Metro Businesses Rely on Non-metro for Customers Metro Businesses Need Dependable Work Force Difficult for Small Governments to Provide Services Small Governments Benefit from Regional Economies of Scale 12/5/2015 10 Center for Governmental Studies

11. How Can Downstate Respond? Communicate – With Other Local Governments – With General Assembly in a More Organized Way Cooperate in Regional Strategies Collaborate Actively to Make Areas Better Consolidate Units of Government When Needed Centralize Services If Other Options Are Exhausted 12/5/2015 11 Center for Governmental Studies

12. For Further Information Contact: Center for Governmental Studies Northern Illinois University De Kalb, IL 60115 815-753-1907 www.NIUCGS.org Norman Walzer Brian Harger Senior Research ScholarResearch Associate nwalzer@niu.edubharger@niu.edu