1. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning Alternative Futures for the Region of Albacete, Spain MIT 11.951 Final Class Review Instructor’s Introduction

2. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning Carl Steinitz Framework for Landscape Change

3. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning First half of class - Diagnostic Phase –What is Albacete’s relative competitive position in an increasingly globalized economy? –What are the major issues at regional to national scale that will affect Albacete’s future but are not under its direct control? –Which planning issues should be considered that are municipally-controlled? –What are the most important issues for the newly formed “supramunicipal” planning council to consider? –What spatial data are available or can be rapidly generated to support quantitative analyses?

4. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning Diagnostic Methods in GIS: Attractiveness Modeling Different interest groups want different things in the landscape. Traditional planning looked for what the “average” entity prefers. This obscures legitimate differences By mapping attractiveness from the perspective of different “customers” we hope to map where interest align and diverge Attractiveness Modeling = Spatial Modeling of landscape quality from specific points of view

5. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning Basic Concepts “Customer”: An individual or group that has an interest or goal in how the physical landscape changes (i.e. Residents, firms, policymakers etc…) Factors: A basic input of an Attractiveness Model. Attractiveness: An aggregate measure of preference based on multiple factors “Amenity”: Something perceived as good relative to location choice (i.e. Parks) “Disamenity”: Something perceived as bad relative to location choice (i.e. Prisons) Fall off: How amenities change with distance

6. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning

7. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning How To Make an Attractiveness Model

8. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning

9. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning The Albacete Regional GIS A GIS containing hundreds of layers of geographic information –Land Cover from CORINE classification –State-of-the-art 3D cadastral database with land use and value –Transportation data from 5 different agencies Some data cover the entire region Almost all data sets incomplete or inconsistent due to political and jurisdictional issues –Many data were derived from CAD –Such data required very extensive programming and manual labor to convert and clean The lack of consistent GIS data was a major limitation of this study This class generated the first ever intramunicipal GIS for the region

10. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning Second Half of Course - Prognostic Phase Scenario Specification –What are interesting and relevant sets of policy and physical infrastructure options to consider? Scenario Simulation –One overall regional growth/population estimate, based on historic trend + doubling of Spanish internal and external immigration –Generating Mapped Alternative Futures by design –Major future transportation and land use or policy zones drawn over maps Scenario Impact Assessment –In qualitative and quantitative terms, what are the implications of each scenario relative to the goals it set for itself –Because of time limitations, did not do systematic cross-comparison of scenarios (what does economic development scenario do for energy consumption, etc.)

11. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning Final Review Components Introduction and Overview For Each Scenario –Motivation –Relevant Precedents –GIS-based Evaluations of Current Conditions –Relevant Major Projects Treated as Given for 2027 –Major Plan Components/Strategies –The Plan –Key Conclusions from the Scenario Point of View Agent-Based Simulation Modeling –An example of use of simulation to explore water policy options Closing Reviewer Comments

12. Simulating Sustainable Futures | Albacete, España Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Department of Urban Studies and Planning Final Review Schedule