1. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory IMPLEMENTATION OF A NEW FORECAST SYSTEM FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY Background and Planning Meetings Background and Planning Meetings Historical Perspectives Historical Perspectives Recent Perspectives Recent Perspectives Key Hydrodynamic Processes Key Hydrodynamic Processes PORTS PORTS Suggested Approaches Suggested Approaches Next Steps Next Steps Joint OCS/CO-OPS Planning Meeting Richard A. Schmalz August 25, 2010 Richard A. Schmalz August 25, 2010

2. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Background and Planning Meetings October 9, 2009 CSDL Preliminary Planning Meeting October 9, 2009 CSDL Preliminary Planning Meeting IOOS/RA Reviews California Coastline IOOS/RA Reviews California Coastline USGS San Francisco Bay Modeling Review USGS San Francisco Bay Modeling Review May 6, 2010 CSDL Follow-up Planning Meeting May 6, 2010 CSDL Follow-up Planning Meeting FVCOM User Workshop Review FVCOM User Workshop Review California Current System Modeling Review California Current System Modeling Review AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting Abstract Reviews AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting Abstract Reviews

3. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Project Meetings May 25, 2010 Project Kickoff Meeting May 25, 2010 Project Kickoff Meeting June 10, 2010 NCCOS, Jawed Hameedi Briefing  X2 Concept June 10, 2010 NCCOS, Jawed Hameedi Briefing  X2 Concept July 15, 2010 Joint NOAA/USGS Hydrology Meeting July 15, 2010 Joint NOAA/USGS Hydrology Meeting July 19, 2010 OCS/CSDL SDLC Meeting 1 July 19, 2010 OCS/CSDL SDLC Meeting 1

4. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Historical Perspective NOS 1979-1980 Circulation Survey Report 7 R.T. Cheng, USGS retired, OFS—2d TRIM Customized windfield provided by F. Ludwig, Stanford University Customized windfield provided by F. Ludwig, Stanford University website semi-operational---R. Smith, USGS website semi-operational---R. Smith, USGS

5. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

6. Recent Perspectives NOS Historical Circulation Survey Data Restoration CSDL Tech Note 9. NOS Historical Circulation Survey Data Restoration CSDL Tech Note 9. Movement towards 3d unstructured grids in recent model studies: unTRIM, SUNTANS, and FVCOM. Movement towards 3d unstructured grids in recent model studies: unTRIM, SUNTANS, and FVCOM. San Francisco Bay-Delta UnTRIM Model Calibration Report, California Department of Water Resources, December 2008. San Francisco Bay-Delta UnTRIM Model Calibration Report, California Department of Water Resources, December 2008.

7. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

8. Key Hydrodynamic Processes Key Hydrodynamic Processes Upwelling/Downwelling dynamics — California Current (ROMS OSU and JPL models) Upwelling/Downwelling dynamics — California Current (ROMS OSU and JPL models) Internal wave generation — nonhydrostatic SUNTANS and ROMS coupling (Fringer et al., Oceanography, 2006) Internal wave generation — nonhydrostatic SUNTANS and ROMS coupling (Fringer et al., Oceanography, 2006) Shelf-Bay interaction Shelf-Bay interaction Salinity intrusion and Delta dynamics Salinity intrusion and Delta dynamics Wetting-drying of tidal flats in the northern Bay Wetting-drying of tidal flats in the northern Bay Inundation associated with coastal storms Inundation associated with coastal storms

9. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

11. USGS/NOS Real-time C/T Sensors USGS/NOS Real-time C/T Sensors Plans for USGS real-time C/T sensor network Plans for USGS real-time C/T sensor network Proposed addition of PORTS C/T sensors at all Proposed addition of PORTS C/T sensors at all PORTS water level gauges pending funding PORTS water level gauges pending funding Cooperation with USGS in station location selection Cooperation with USGS in station location selection and maintenance of selected stations-  X2 location forecasting and maintenance of selected stations-  X2 location forecasting

12. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory VDATUM California Coast Grid

13. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory VDATUM Grid in the vicinity of San Francisco Bay

14. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory VDATUM San Francisco Bay Bathymetry

15. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Suggested Phase I Tasks Use FVCOM Version 3.1 Use FVCOM Version 3.1 Modify VDATUM California grid using SMS Modify VDATUM California grid using SMS Consider Apr-May 1979 and Sep-Oct 1980 Consider Apr-May 1979 and Sep-Oct 1980 for initial tidal and hindcast simulations for initial tidal and hindcast simulations

16. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory USGS/NOS Modeling Cooperative Efforts Phase I consistent with recent unstructured grid modeling approaches, builds on VDATUM grid and bathymetry, and uses recovered historical NOS data employed by Ralph Cheng, USGS, for comparison of modeling results. Phase I consistent with recent unstructured grid modeling approaches, builds on VDATUM grid and bathymetry, and uses recovered historical NOS data employed by Ralph Cheng, USGS, for comparison of modeling results. Unstructured modeling approach allows NOS FVCOM modeling approach to be coordinated with unTRIM modeling efforts by Jon Burau, USGS, Sacramento. Unstructured modeling approach allows NOS FVCOM modeling approach to be coordinated with unTRIM modeling efforts by Jon Burau, USGS, Sacramento. Assistance and cooperation in the development of the Delta inflow boundary conditions, particularly during the historical 1979-1980 hindcast. Assistance and cooperation in the development of the Delta inflow boundary conditions, particularly during the historical 1979-1980 hindcast.

17. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Suggested Phase II Tasks Suggested Phase II Tasks Extend the tidal and hindcast periods from April 1979 – October 1980. Extend the tidal and hindcast periods from April 1979 – October 1980. Perform formal tidal and hindcast skill assessments. Perform formal tidal and hindcast skill assessments. Efforts underway with USGS: Efforts underway with USGS: Ralph Cheng, Jeff Gartner, and Jon Burau to obtain CTD and current meter datasets. Ralph Cheng, Jeff Gartner, and Jon Burau to obtain CTD and current meter datasets.

18. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Suggested Phase III Tasks Transfer and couple San Francisco Bay FVCOM to shelf forecast models at NCEP Transfer and couple San Francisco Bay FVCOM to shelf forecast models at NCEP ETSS/G-NCOM ETSS/G-NCOM NOS West Coast Shelf Model NOS West Coast Shelf Model Perform formal skill assessment of NCEP coupled San Francisco Bay FVCOM nowcasts and forecasts Perform formal skill assessment of NCEP coupled San Francisco Bay FVCOM nowcasts and forecasts

19. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Next Steps Review and edit NOS Circulation Survey Current, CT, and CTD datasets Review and edit NOS Circulation Survey Current, CT, and CTD datasets Obtain historical water level data 1979-1980 Obtain historical water level data 1979-1980 Obtain water level and PORTS current station HA results Obtain water level and PORTS current station HA results Perform HA (15-day) on historical current data Perform HA (15-day) on historical current data Revise VDATUM grid and bathymetries Revise VDATUM grid and bathymetries Develop additional water level, current, and density Develop additional water level, current, and density station locations---  initially measure conductivity at PORTS water level stations. station locations---  initially measure conductivity at PORTS water level stations.

20. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory San Francisco Bay and Near Shelf Measurement Program in Support of the San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFOFS) I. Salinity Measurement Locations: SFB PORTS Redwood City, CA SFB PORTS Redwood City, CA SFB PORTS Alameda, CA SFB PORTS Alameda, CA SFB PORTS San Francisco, CA SFB PORTS San Francisco, CA SFB PORTS Richmond, CA SFB PORTS Richmond, CA SFB PORTS Port Chicago, CA SFB PORTS Port Chicago, CA II. Current Meter Measurement Locations: SFBCSR Report No. 7 C-211, C-6, C-7, C-312, C-13, C-18, C-22, C-24, and C-32 C-211, C-6, C-7, C-312, C-13, C-18, C-22, C-24, and C-32 III. New PORTS station for water levels: 941- 4816, 4818, 5056, 5143, 5112, 4358, 4392, 4688, and 4509 4816, 4818, 5056, 5143, 5112, 4358, 4392, 4688, and 4509 IV. Near Shelf salinity, temperature, and current measurement locations: SFBCS Report No. 7 Station T1 SFBCS Report No. 7 Station T1