1. International C20C Project: Background for this Meeting J. Kinter, COLA, USA C. Folland, Met Office, UK Joint C20C/WGSIP Workshop 4-6 July 2005  Prague, Czech Republic

2. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Background Purpose: Characterize variability and predictability of climatic conditions and events of the past ~150 years associated with various slowly varying forcing functions including SST. Purpose: Characterize variability and predictability of climatic conditions and events of the past ~150 years associated with various slowly varying forcing functions including SST. Initially focused on AGCMs forced with HadISST sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis Initially focused on AGCMs forced with HadISST sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis

3. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Background (continued) Period of interest: 1871-current Period of interest: 1871-current Organization: Organization: Jointly organized by Hadley Centre, UK & Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), USA Jointly organized by Hadley Centre, UK & Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), USA 15 different modeling groups participating internationally 15 different modeling groups participating internationally CLIVAR project & reporting to WMO/CAS/WGNE CLIVAR project & reporting to WMO/CAS/WGNE Now includes many other forcing data sets, including greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic aerosols and solar variability Now includes many other forcing data sets, including greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic aerosols and solar variability Being expanded to include use of coupled models in order to more accurately simulate modes of variability that are inherently coupled Being expanded to include use of coupled models in order to more accurately simulate modes of variability that are inherently coupled

4. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Current Participating Groups Bureau of Meteorology, Australia () Bureau of Meteorology, Australia ( www.bom.gov.au ) China Meteorological Agency, China () China Meteorological Agency, China ( www.cma.gov.cn ) Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA () Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA ( www.iges.org ) Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Brazil () Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Brazil ( www.cptec.inpe.br ) Department of Natural Resources, Mines & Energy, Queensland, Australia () Department of Natural Resources, Mines & Energy, Queensland, Australia ( www.nrm.qld.gov.au ) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA () NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA ( gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK () Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK ( www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre ) International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy () International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy ( www.ictp.trieste.it ) MeteoFrance, France () MeteoFrance, France ( www.meteo.fr ) Main Geophysical Observatory, Russia () Main Geophysical Observatory, Russia ( www.mgo.rssi.ru ) Meteorological Research Institute, Japan () Meteorological Research Institute, Japan ( www.mri-jma.go.jp ) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan () National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan ( www.nies.go.jp ) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand () National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand ( www.niwa.cri.nz ) Seoul National University, Korea () Seoul National University, Korea ( www.snu.ac.kr: ) www.snu.ac.kr University of California at Los Angeles, USA () University of California at Los Angeles, USA ( www.ucla.edu ) www.ucla.edu

5. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Special Topics Predictability of seasonal to decadal phenomena Predictability of seasonal to decadal phenomena 1930s drought in USA (“Dust Bowl”) 1930s drought in USA (“Dust Bowl”) 1962-63 European winter 1962-63 European winter Interannual to decadal variations in summer North European droughts Interannual to decadal variations in summer North European droughts 2003 European heat wave 2003 European heat wave Decadal modulation of response to ENSO in Australia, Indian monsoon Decadal modulation of response to ENSO in Australia, Indian monsoon Time series and trends Time series and trends SOI, NAO, PNA, Asian monsoon rainfall, Sahel rainfall, Nordeste Brazil rainfall, MJO trends SOI, NAO, PNA, Asian monsoon rainfall, Sahel rainfall, Nordeste Brazil rainfall, MJO trends Global and regional land surface air temperature trends Global and regional land surface air temperature trends Others, e.g., river runoff trends Others, e.g., river runoff trends

6. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Links to CLIVAR C20C became a CLIVAR activity in 2003 C20C became a CLIVAR activity in 2003 Reports to Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WCRP/CAS/WGNE) Reports to Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WCRP/CAS/WGNE) One purpose of this meeting: Exploring link to WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WCRP/CLIVAR/WGSIP) One purpose of this meeting: Exploring link to WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WCRP/CLIVAR/WGSIP) Also exploring link to WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WCRP/CAS/WGCM) Also exploring link to WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WCRP/CAS/WGCM)

7. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies C20C Phases of Activity Phase 1 (prior to 2003) : SST and sea ice Phase 1 (prior to 2003) : SST and sea ice Hadley Centre provides HadISST1.1 SST and sea ice data set as lower boundary conditions Hadley Centre provides HadISST1.1 SST and sea ice data set as lower boundary conditions Integrate over 1871-2002 (at least 1949-2002) Integrate over 1871-2002 (at least 1949-2002) Ensembles of at least 4 members Ensembles of at least 4 members Phase 2 (2003 - ) : atmospheric composition Phase 2 (2003 - ) : atmospheric composition Greenhouse gases – CO 2, O 3, etc. Greenhouse gases – CO 2, O 3, etc. Aerosols (volcanic) Aerosols (volcanic) Solar variability Solar variability Phase 3 (2005 - ) : land surface variability Phase 3 (2005 - ) : land surface variability specified evolution of soil wetness and vegetation specified evolution of soil wetness and vegetation

8. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Current Activities Results of Third C20C Workshop were reported to CLIVAR 2004 Conference in June 2004 Results of Third C20C Workshop were reported to CLIVAR 2004 Conference in June 2004 Discussion with CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Oct 2004, Exeter. Discussion with CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Oct 2004, Exeter. Inputs to relevant sections of 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment. Inputs to relevant sections of 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment. Planning for comparison to coupled models Planning for comparison to coupled models Coupling to mixed layer or dynamical ocean in “Pacemaker” mode Coupling to mixed layer or dynamical ocean in “Pacemaker” mode Use of alternative SST data sets to HadISST in Pacemaker experiments including proposed HadISST2 and Reynolds SST data. Use of alternative SST data sets to HadISST in Pacemaker experiments including proposed HadISST2 and Reynolds SST data. Coordination with WGSIP/WGCM Coordination with WGSIP/WGCM Efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals Efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals Planning for changing land cover forcing experiments including the role of soil moisture feedback Planning for changing land cover forcing experiments including the role of soil moisture feedback

9. Poster presented at the International CLIVAR 2004 Conference

10. Data contributed by: S.Grainger BMRC L. MarxCOLA K.Jin CESRC/SNU A.Scaife Hadley Centre F.Kucharski ICTP P.SporyshevMGO S.Kusunoki MRI J.Syktus QNRME Global 2m land surface air temperature Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Sahel rainfallSouthern Oscillation Data analysis prepared by: A.Scaife, Hadley Centre

11. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Issues What are the limitations of AGCM runs that have no direct coupling to the ocean surface? Are local/regional fluxes misleading? What are the limitations of AGCM runs that have no direct coupling to the ocean surface? Are local/regional fluxes misleading? How should we include coupled models in C20C work, e.g. thermohaline-forced variations in climate? understanding interannual predictability? How should we include coupled models in C20C work, e.g. thermohaline-forced variations in climate? understanding interannual predictability? How should we design the land cover experiment to most effectively meet C20C and land surface community goals? How should we design the land cover experiment to most effectively meet C20C and land surface community goals?

12. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Future … Fourth C20C Workshop in autumn 2006 tentatively being planned for Exeter, UK. Fourth C20C Workshop in autumn 2006 tentatively being planned for Exeter, UK. This may set the main change of direction of participants to Pacemaker Experiments and better define forcing data sets with participation of CLIVAR WG on Coupled Modeling. Possible session at the winter 2006-7 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Possible session at the winter 2006-7 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Extend C20C back to 1850 where possible. Extend C20C back to 1850 where possible. Publication of papers on our key topics explicitly advertising C20C. This has already started, but needs to be more systematic. Publication of papers on our key topics explicitly advertising C20C. This has already started, but needs to be more systematic. Fifth C20C Workshop, tentatively set for late 2008 in Australia. Fifth C20C Workshop, tentatively set for late 2008 in Australia. C20C can provide major input to Fifth IPCC Assessment Report 2010-12 with careful planning. This will be addressed at the Fifth Workshop. C20C can provide major input to Fifth IPCC Assessment Report 2010-12 with careful planning. This will be addressed at the Fifth Workshop.

13. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies This Meeting MONDAY Workshop introduction Workshop introduction Coupled and uncoupled A-O models (3 sessions) Coupled and uncoupled A-O models (3 sessions)TUESDAY Uncoupled AGCM (2 sessions) Uncoupled AGCM (2 sessions) Discussion of coupled modeling for C20C Discussion of coupled modeling for C20CWEDNESDAY Sensitivity to land surface (1 session) Sensitivity to land surface (1 session) Discussion of land cover experimental design Discussion of land cover experimental design

14. Excerpt from Schubert et al. 2004 (Science, 19Mar2004) Example:

15. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Chronology Project initiated by Hadley Centre Project initiated by Hadley Centre several informal bilateral collaborations established several informal bilateral collaborations established 1 st workshop held at Hadley Centre in Nov 1994 1 st workshop held at Hadley Centre in Nov 1994 Input to 1995 IPCC assessment and special session at 1 st international AMIP conference in 1995 Input to 1995 IPCC assessment and special session at 1 st international AMIP conference in 1995 Revitalized by Hadley Centre and COLA Revitalized by Hadley Centre and COLA 1998 invitation to several modeling groups 1998 invitation to several modeling groups infrastructure provided by COLA (www.iges.org/c20c; GDS) infrastructure provided by COLA (www.iges.org/c20c; GDS)www.iges.org/c20c 2 nd workshop held at COLA in Jan 2002 (reported in CLIVAR Exchanges, Jun 2002) 2 nd workshop held at COLA in Jan 2002 (reported in CLIVAR Exchanges, Jun 2002) Agreed set of runs with updated forcing data sets, diagnostics and special projects Agreed set of runs with updated forcing data sets, diagnostics and special projects C20C established as official CLIVAR project in 2003 C20C established as official CLIVAR project in 2003 Third Workshop - 19-23 Apr 2004, ICTP, Italy Third Workshop - 19-23 Apr 2004, ICTP, Italy

16. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Contributions C20C contributes to: Seasonal to interannual predictability Seasonal to interannual predictability Decadal to interdecadal variability & predictability Decadal to interdecadal variability & predictability Simulations of climate trends Simulations of climate trends Model evaluation Model evaluation

17. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Validating Data Sets NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-2005) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-2005) ERA40 Reanalysis (1958-2002) ERA40 Reanalysis (1958-2002) HadSLP global sea level pressure analysis (1871-2005) HadSLP global sea level pressure analysis (1871-2005) Jones land surface air temperature (1871- 2005) and Hulme land surface rainfall analyses (1871-2002) Jones land surface air temperature (1871- 2005) and Hulme land surface rainfall analyses (1871-2002) Xie-Arkin global precipitation analysis (1979-2005) Xie-Arkin global precipitation analysis (1979-2005)

18. Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Diagnostics Monthly means, all ensemble members Monthly means, all ensemble members Geopotential height at 500 and 200 hPa Geopotential height at 500 and 200 hPa Mean sea level pressure Mean sea level pressure Precipitation and evaporation Precipitation and evaporation Temperature at 2m and 850 hPa Temperature at 2m and 850 hPa Zonal and meridional winds at 850 and 200 hPa Zonal and meridional winds at 850 and 200 hPa Total heat flux and wind stress Total heat flux and wind stress Soil moisture index Soil moisture index Zonal mean cross-sections of U, V, T and q Zonal mean cross-sections of U, V, T and q Basic statistics Basic statistics Seasonal means and standard deviations Seasonal means and standard deviations Estimates of forced variability (ANOVA) Estimates of forced variability (ANOVA) Linear regression trends 1950-1999 (or 1952-2001) Linear regression trends 1950-1999 (or 1952-2001) Regression with NINO3.4 Regression with NINO3.4 Special diagnostic projects Special diagnostic projects {Refer to Second C20C Workshop, Working Group 2 Report} {Refer to Second C20C Workshop, Working Group 2 Report}